FK Liepaja look set to take advantage of their home form, with a 55% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 19% for a Super Nova win, making a home win the model’s pick. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderate-scoring encounter, and the most likely total of two goals carries a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the match.
Liepaja have been productive at home against weaker opposition, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Super Nova, playing away against stronger teams, average only 0.75 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The recent form narrative adds weight: Liepaja come off a win, and Super Nova a draw.
The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76.4% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.2%. These picks highlight the likelihood of a moderately high-scoring game while still keeping the total below 3.5.
Results analysis
The win extends FK Liepaja’s recent run, with a 2-0 triumph over Super Nova confirming the model’s prediction of a home win, which came through with a 55% probability. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, and the model’s favourite was correct. The suggested picks also proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.4% chance, hit as the match saw two goals, and Under 3.5, at 71.2%, hit with the same tally. FK Liepaja’s home form, coming off a win, and Super Nova’s away struggles against stronger opponents helped the model’s selections to deliver a solid, predictable outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.53
1.07
1.57
1.88
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.83
0.33
2.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.30
1.20
1.60
1.80
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
1.14
1.33
1.00
2.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
2.80
0.69
3.25
0.86
2.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
3.11
0.50
3.60
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (12)
1.00
2.33
1.00
2.67
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.6%
2-0 ✓
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.3%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
5.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.0%
5.7%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
FK Liepaja is 1.03 points better than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
FK Liepaja is 0.75 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 0.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
FK Liepaja is 1.17 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.50
0.44
1.69
0.50
1.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
1.78
0.40
1.80
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.08
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.64
1.00
1.12
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.33
1.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.70
0.80
1.00
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
0.67
0.67
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.30
0.25
1.56
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.17
1.33
0.10
1.80
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.17
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than Super Nova's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's attack is €1m more valuable than Super Nova's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Super Nova have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FK Liepaja's defence is €1m more valuable than Super Nova's (€2m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Auda
Valmiera / BSS
FS Jelgava
Metta / LU
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
Skanste