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FK Liepaja vs Valmiera / BSS Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 1-4
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
32%
28%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS win✓ Hit
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D13L11D23L11D11D21W21W20W11DA·VAL29/06A·RIG04/07H·RĪG08/07A·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07A·TUK05/08H·BFC12/08A·SUP28/08A·MET02/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.401.071.711.751.12
vs Stronger (7)0.292.290.252.750.331.67
vs Similar (10)1.400.901.001.201.800.60
vs Weaker (13)2.081.311.801.402.251.25
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L01L30W70W21W12L22D01L03L10WH·OLI19/07H·BFC22/07A·TRE25/07H·TRE01/08H·MET06/08H·PAR10/08H·FS 13/08A·PAR17/08A·RIG26/08H·RĪG02/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.132.120.940.641.36
vs Stronger (3)0.332.001.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (11)0.821.361.001.200.671.50
vs Weaker (16)2.060.812.800.900.830.67
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.5%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Valmiera / BSS goals →
01234
07.9%8.4%6.8%3.2%1.2%
17.4%13%8.7%4.1%1.5%
25.5%7.8%5.5%2.6%0.9%
32.3%3.3%2.4%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Valmiera / BSS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
FK Liepaja is 0.06 points worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
FK Liepaja is 0.14 goals better than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
FK Liepaja is 0.39 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L11D10W01L21W11D20W01LA·VAL29/06A·RIG04/07H·RĪG08/07A·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07A·TUK05/08H·BFC12/08A·SUP28/08A·MET02/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.500.790.810.50
vs Stronger (7)0.001.000.001.500.000.33
vs Similar (10)0.700.300.600.200.800.40
vs Weaker (13)1.000.690.800.801.120.62
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L10W40W01L10W10W01L01L10WH·OLI19/07H·BFC22/07A·TRE25/07H·TRE01/08H·MET06/08H·PAR10/08H·FS 13/08A·PAR17/08A·RIG26/08H·RĪG02/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.501.060.380.140.64
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (11)0.360.640.600.400.170.83
vs Weaker (16)0.940.311.400.400.170.17
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L10W12L01L10W00D10W00D10WA·VAL29/06A·RIG04/07H·RĪG08/07A·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07A·TUK05/08H·BFC12/08A·SUP28/08A·MET02/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.770.570.930.940.62
vs Stronger (7)0.291.290.251.250.331.33
vs Similar (10)0.700.600.401.001.000.20
vs Weaker (13)1.080.621.000.601.120.62
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D20W30W20W02L12L00D02L00DH·OLI19/07H·BFC22/07A·TRE25/07H·TRE01/08H·MET06/08H·PAR10/08H·FS 13/08A·PAR17/08A·RIG26/08H·RĪG02/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.631.060.560.500.71
vs Stronger (3)0.331.001.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (11)0.450.730.400.800.500.67
vs Weaker (16)1.120.501.400.500.670.50
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
FL wins
1
Draws
4
V/B wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs Valmiera / BSS · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FL1-1
27/05/23HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS1-2
18/03/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FL0-1
12/11/22HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS0-2
04/09/22AValmiera / BSS Vs FL0-1
28/05/22HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS1-3
27/04/22AValmiera / BSS Vs FL3-0

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23AMetta / LU Vs FL1-1
28/08/23ASuper Nova Vs FL0-2
12/08/23HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils2-1
05/08/23ATukums Vs FL1-2
30/07/23AAuda Vs FL1-1
26/07/23AMetta / LU Vs FL1-1
21/07/23AFS Jelgava Vs FL3-2
08/07/23HFL Vs Rīgas FS1-1
04/07/23ARiga Vs FL3-1
29/06/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FL1-1

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23HV/B Vs Rīgas FS1-0
26/08/23ARiga Vs V/B3-0
17/08/23APartizani Vs V/B1-0
13/08/23HV/B Vs FS Jelgava2-2
10/08/23HV/B Vs Partizani1-2
06/08/23HV/B Vs Metta / LU2-1
01/08/23HV/B Vs Tre Penne7-0
25/07/23ATre Penne Vs V/B0-3
22/07/23HV/B Vs BFC Daugavpils0-1
19/07/23HV/B Vs Olimpija Ljubljana1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD1.60
HomeLWWDW1.67
AwayDDWWD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.962.962.96
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.601.581.62
Conceded1.361.381.35
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet20%17%23%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards4.004.503.50
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.58
HomeWWLDW1.85
AwayDLWLL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%33%
AVG goals3.023.232.79
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %30%35%25%
Scored1.942.311.54
Conceded1.080.921.25
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners9.387.5011.25
Cards3.884.003.75

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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