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FK Qəbələ II vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 19/10/2022
Time: 10:30
Final 1-1
FK Qəbələ II
FK Qəbələ II
Vs
36%
30%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Qəbələ II win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W23L10W32W01L02LH·IMI25/08A·KEŞ31/08H·KAP06/09A·SUM19/09H·ZIR28/09A·TUR05/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.331.000.331.672.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.001.201.000.331.002.50
vs Weaker (1)3.002.00--3.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W30W50W21W40W10W21WH·QAR24/08A·IMI31/08H·KEŞ06/09A·KAP14/09H·SUM28/09A·ZIR05/10H·TUR12/10
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.140.434.000.502.000.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)3.000.504.000.672.000.33
vs Weaker (1)4.000.004.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Qəbələ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
FK Qəbələ II goals ↓
Araz goals →
01234
011%9.5%6.2%2.4%0.7%
110%14%7.6%2.9%0.8%
26.9%8.0%4.6%1.8%0.5%
32.8%3.2%1.9%0.7%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Qəbələ II goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
FK Qəbələ II is 0.89 points worse than Araz in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 2.46).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
FK Qəbələ II is 0.86 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 2.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
FK Qəbələ II is 0.21 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.79).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W10W11D00D00DH·IMI25/08A·KEŞ31/08H·KAP06/09A·SUM19/09H·ZIR28/09A·TUR05/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.170.670.000.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.600.000.670.000.500.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W20W11D30W11DH·QAR24/08A·IMI31/08H·KEŞ06/09A·KAP14/09H·SUM28/09H·TUR12/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.830.332.250.251.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.600.402.000.331.000.50
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Qəbələ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W13L00D21W01L02LH·IMI25/08A·KEŞ31/08H·KAP06/09A·SUM19/09H·ZIR28/09A·TUR05/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.170.330.331.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.401.200.330.330.502.50
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W30W10W10W10WH·QAR24/08A·IMI31/08H·KEŞ06/09A·KAP14/09H·SUM28/09H·TUR12/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.171.750.251.500.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.800.202.000.331.500.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Qəbələ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
FQI wins
0
Draws
0
ARA wins

Head-to-head

FK Qəbələ II vs Araz · H/A from FQI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/10/22ATuran II Vs FQI2-0
28/09/22HFQI Vs Zira II0-1
19/09/22ASumqayıt II Vs FQI2-3
06/09/22HFQI Vs Kapaz II1-0
31/08/22AKeşlə II Vs FQI3-2
25/08/22HFQI Vs Imisli FK2-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/10/22HARA Vs Turan II2-1
05/10/22AZira II Vs ARA0-1
28/09/22HARA Vs Sumqayıt II4-0
14/09/22AKapaz II Vs ARA1-2
06/09/22HARA Vs Keşlə II5-0
31/08/22AImisli FK Vs ARA0-3
24/08/22HARA Vs Qarabağ II5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Qəbələ II
FK Qəbələ II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.50
HomeWWL2.00
AwayLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%67%33%
AVG goals2.671.334.00
Over 1.5 %67%33%100%
Over 2.5 %33%0%67%
Over 3.5 %33%0%67%
Scored1.331.001.67
Conceded1.330.332.33
BTTS33%0%67%
Clean Sheet33%67%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW3.00
HomeWWWW3.00
AwayWWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %100%100%100%
AVG goals3.574.502.33
Over 1.5 %86%100%67%
Over 2.5 %86%100%67%
Over 3.5 %43%75%0%
Scored3.144.002.00
Conceded0.430.500.33
BTTS43%50%33%
Clean Sheet57%50%67%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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