This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
1.27
1.33
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (17)
1.00
1.53
1.38
1.38
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.25
1.14
1.29
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.2%
@ 2.08+2.9%
Under 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.72-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.4%
1-2 ✓
6.2%
3-1
5.0%
Fleetwood Town goals ↓
Cheltenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
6.4%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.4%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.8%
5.0%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fleetwood Town goals (down), columns = Cheltenham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Fleetwood Town is 0.02 points worse than Cheltenham in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 0.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Fleetwood Town is 0.17 goals better than Cheltenham in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Fleetwood Town is 0.15 goals worse than Cheltenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Fleetwood Town is 2.5 percentage points better than Cheltenham in terms of average possession (47% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fleetwood Town
For 6.1 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fleetwood Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.7
11.5
4.4
3.8
5.0
22.7
21.8
23.7
vs Stronger (24)
12.2
11.6
13.0
4.8
4.3
5.4
23.1
21.4
25.5
vs Similar (24)
11.4
12.1
10.8
4.1
3.5
4.6
22.4
22.7
22.1
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
3.0
1.0
5.0
22.0
18.0
26.0
% over line
72%
81%
62%
70%
62%
79%
62%
50%
75%
% under line
28%
19%
38%
30%
38%
21%
38%
50%
25%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.1
4.1
4.5
3.6
22.0
21.4
22.6
vs Stronger (28)
10.3
11.0
9.6
3.5
4.1
2.9
22.0
20.7
23.4
vs Similar (21)
9.1
7.7
11.0
4.8
5.0
4.6
21.8
22.2
21.2
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
-
10.0
5.0
-
5.0
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
52%
50%
54%
54%
58%
50%
58%
50%
67%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
46%
42%
50%
42%
50%
33%
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fleetwood Town
11.6
Derby
11.3
Charlton
11.3
Exeter
11.1
Port Vale
11.1
Wycombe
11.0
Bristol Rvs
10.8
Peterboro
10.6
Bolton
10.5
Portsmouth
10.4
Barnsley
10.4
Reading
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.3
Oxford
10.2
Carlisle
9.9
Cheltenham
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.8
Cambridge
9.7
Blackpool
9.4
Wigan
9.4
Lincoln
9.4
Stevenage
9.4
Burton
8.9
Northampton
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.2
Portsmouth
5.0
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Oxford
4.4
Fleetwood Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Bolton
4.3
Lincoln
4.3
Exeter
4.3
Port Vale
4.3
Barnsley
4.3
Stevenage
4.3
Leyton Orient
4.2
Blackpool
4.2
Charlton
4.1
Cheltenham
4.1
Cambridge
4.1
Reading
4.0
Wycombe
3.9
Carlisle
3.9
Derby
3.8
Burton
3.8
Peterboro
3.7
Northampton
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.7
Wigan
24.4
Portsmouth
24.2
Bolton
22.8
Bristol Rvs
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.7
Cambridge
22.7
Oxford
22.4
Blackpool
22.3
Cheltenham
22.0
Lincoln
21.9
Shrewsbury
21.7
Reading
21.6
Port Vale
21.4
Burton
21.1
Derby
21.0
Exeter
21.0
Wycombe
21.0
Leyton Orient
20.6
Barnsley
20.6
Northampton
20.5
Peterboro
20.4
Carlisle
20.3
Charlton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.6%
Under 9.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.1%
Under 21.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.62
0.88
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.07
0.56
1.22
1.00
0.80
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.76
0.50
0.62
0.33
0.89
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.71
0.71
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.56
0.69
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.89
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.76
0.88
0.75
0.33
0.78
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.75
0.43
0.57
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fleetwood Town · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ched Evans50%
Will Davies50%
Finley Potter25%
Jay Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
Shaun Rooney0%
Lewis McCann0%
Mark Helm0%
Rhys Bennett0%
Harrison Neal0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rhys Bennett50%
Finley Potter50%
Andy Cannon33%
Shaun Rooney25%
Lewis McCann25%
Will Davies25%
Jay Lynch0%
Danny Andrew0%
Ched Evans0%
Mark Helm0%
Harrison Neal0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ched Evans25%
Mark Helm25%
Finley Potter25%
Jay Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
Shaun Rooney0%
Lewis McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
Harrison Neal0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ched Evans50%
Mark Helm25%
Jay Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
Shaun Rooney0%
Lewis McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
Harrison Neal0%
Finley Potter0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
Cheltenham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
Charlie McCann33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Joseph Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Jake Bickerstaff33%
Jonathan Tomkinson33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Charlie McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Charlie McCann0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Charlie McCann33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Cheltenham have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Cheltenham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Cheltenham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Cheltenham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Northampton
Reading
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Burton
Port Vale
Carlisle