The encounter between Fleetwood Town and Old Ham is a tight one, with the odds almost evenly split. The model favours an away win, giving Old Ham a 37% chance, Fleetwood a 34% chance and a draw 29%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely exact score is 1-1, a 13.8% probability. Fleetwood’s home form shows they average 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similar opposition, while Old Ham’s away numbers are 1.46 scored and 1.54 conceded. The model’s selections are heavily in favour of low totals: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%, edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%, edge 3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%, edge 4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%, edge 3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%, edge 4%) and Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%, edge 3%). Fleetwood have been unbeaten in their last five, drawing 2-2 with Grimsby, while Old Ham come off a 3-0 win over Swindon. The balance of probabilities leaves the match undecided, but the model’s pick points to an Old Ham victory.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Oldham, was expected to win with a 37% chance, but the match finished 1-1, a draw that the model had not predicted. The upset is underscored by the fact that the home side, Fleetwood Town, had been unbeaten in their last five games, a streak that was extended by this result. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score was 1-1, confirming a draw. All the model’s suggested picks hit: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%) and Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fleetwood Town win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.61
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.67
Superbet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.29
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.48
Dafabet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
1xBet
3.32
Marathonbet
3.32
Oldham win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.58
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.70
Betano
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fleetwood Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.07
1.20
1.20
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
1.12
1.27
1.27
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.07
1.73
0.67
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
0.80
1.67
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.12
1.75
0.67
1.46
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
@ 1.29+2.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
@ 3.32-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.95+0.2%
Under 2.5
51.6%
@ 1.81-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.04
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
@ 3.36-1.1%
Under 3.5
73.4%
@ 1.29+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.3%
@ 1.72+0.5%
No
45.7%
@ 2.01-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
1xBet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.8%@ 5.88+6.2%
0-0
8.6%@ 8.90+3.6%
0-1
8.6%@ 8.03+3.1%
1-2
8.4%@ 9.04+3.5%
1-0
8.1%@ 7.93+2.5%
2-1
7.9%@ 9.07+3.1%
0-2
6.6%@ 12.03+2.9%
2-0
5.9%@ 12.25+2.3%
Fleetwood Town goals ↓
Oldham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
8.6%
6.6%
2.9%
1.0%
1
8.1%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.3%
2
5.9%
7.9%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.5%
3.4%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fleetwood Town goals (down), columns = Oldham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Fleetwood Town is 0.15 points worse than Oldham in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Fleetwood Town is 0.07 goals worse than Oldham in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Fleetwood Town is 0.30 goals worse than Oldham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Fleetwood Town is 1.5 percentage points better than Oldham in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fleetwood Town
For 5.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oldham
For 5.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fleetwood Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.1
10.8
3.6
2.9
4.5
22.8
22.5
23.0
vs Stronger (9)
11.2
11.0
11.5
3.1
2.4
4.0
22.2
20.8
23.8
vs Similar (41)
10.3
9.9
10.6
3.8
3.0
4.5
22.9
22.9
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
58%
62%
54%
38%
71%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
46%
62%
29%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.7
10.4
3.9
3.9
3.9
24.7
24.2
25.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.5
9.3
11.7
2.3
3.0
1.8
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (43)
10.0
9.8
10.2
4.2
4.0
4.3
25.2
24.5
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
67%
60%
56%
64%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
40%
44%
36%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
@ 1.78+4.8%
Under 9.5
43.1%
@ 1.93-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.02
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.3%
Under 21.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fleetwood Town or Draw✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied 63.9% · @ 1.46
Edge
-1.1%
34%
29%
37%
covers Fleetwood Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Fleetwood Town or Oldham✗ Miss
71.2%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.6%
34%
29%
37%
covers Fleetwood Town + Oldham
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Draw or Oldham✓ Hit
66.0%
Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.45
Edge
+1.7%
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Oldham
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 1.30+0.2%
Under
28.1%
@ 3.28-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.30
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.46-1.6%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.50+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Under
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.69-2.7%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Superbet
5.70
1xBet
5.65
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Fleetwood Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 13.67-2.9%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Oldham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.8%
@ 1.29+1.9%
Under
26.2%
@ 3.30-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.45
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Oldham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.7%
@ 2.44+0.5%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.50-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Superbet
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Oldham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 5.55-1.5%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.11+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.60
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Oldham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 13.67-2.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fleetwood Town, so a minus line means Fleetwood Town give that many goals of a start and Oldham receive them. At -1, Fleetwood Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fleetwood Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Oldham
Fleetwood Town -2
5.2%
@ 11.48-2.5%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 6.89-2.8%
Oldham +2
84.7%
@ 1.12+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Oldham
Fleetwood Town -1
15.3%
@ 5.25-1.7%
Draw -1
18.6%
@ 4.16-2.9%
Oldham +1
66.0%
@ 1.45+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.05
Superbet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Handicap +1 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town +1
62.8%
@ 1.45+1.5%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 4.14-1.8%
Oldham -1
17.5%
@ 5.17+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Handicap +2 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town +2
82.5%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Draw +2
11.2%
@ 6.66-2.0%
Oldham -2
6.2%
@ 10.89-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.36
0.45
0.36
0.50
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.47
0.47
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.44
0.50
0.42
0.85
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.5%
@ 1.38+0.5%
Under 0.5
32.5%
@ 2.81-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
1xBet
2.81
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.6%
@ 2.80-0.5%
Under 1.5
67.4%
@ 1.39+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Betano
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Under
Superbet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.6%
@ 7.05-1.6%
Under 2.5
88.4%
@ 1.07+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.6%
@ 2.09-1.8%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.66+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 6.64-2.5%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 20.17-2.9%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Oldham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 2.10+4.5%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.66-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Oldham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 6.56-2.5%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Oldham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 20.00-2.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.76
0.82
0.91
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.27
0.20
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.68
1.25
0.25
0.62
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.24+2.3%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 3.67-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
William Hil
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.5%
@ 2.14-2.1%
Under 1.5
58.5%
@ 1.65+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.65
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 4.58-3.4%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.17+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.3%
@ 1.78-1.5%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.92+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 4.87-4.1%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.15+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 12.75-4.3%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Oldham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.6%
@ 1.78-1.4%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.92+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Oldham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 4.84-1.6%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.15+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Oldham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 12.75-2.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.5%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.24
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.7%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.8%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.9%
1.30
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
-0.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fleetwood Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ched Evans40%
Will Davies40%
Ronan Coughlan33%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
M. Helm0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rhys Bennett50%
F. Potter40%
Andy Cannon33%
S. Rooney20%
L. McCann20%
H. Neal20%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Danny Andrew0%
Ched Evans0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
M. Helm0%
A. Murphy0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ronan Coughlan33%
Ched Evans20%
S. Rooney20%
M. Helm20%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
L. McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ched Evans40%
M. Helm40%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
F. Potter0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Oldham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mike Fondop25%
Keenan Appiah-Forson25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Hudson25%
Donervon Daniels25%
Ryan Delaney25%
O. Norburn25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Kavanagh50%
J. Robson25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
E. Nevitt0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Kavanagh50%
F. Fawunmi33%
Gus Scott-Morriss25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
E. Nevitt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Fleetwood Town and Oldham have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Oldham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Oldham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Fleetwood Town and Oldham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale