Forest Green’s recent form shows a team still finding its rhythm, having lost their last match 0-3 to Boreham Wood after a mixed sequence of results. Boston United, on the other hand, are riding a two-game winning streak, having edged Altrincham 1-0. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 48% chance of Forest Green taking the victory, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of Boston United winning. The expected total goals hover at 3.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8% probability. Forest Green averages 2.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded at home against similarly matched opposition, while Boston United averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.54 conceded on the road against similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.0%), Under 6.5 (94.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Under 5.5 (88.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.6%), Home +2 handicap (87.3%), Over 1.5 (85.1%), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.0%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forest Green win
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd win
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forest Green
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.37
2.13
1.40
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
3.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.44
2.50
1.50
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
1.22
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boston Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.33
1.20
1.13
1.87
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (28)
1.54
1.32
1.20
1.13
1.92
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.5%
1-0
5.9%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
4.6%
Forest Green goals ↓
Boston Utd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.2%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
1
5.9%
11%
7.0%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.5%
9.2%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.1%
5.8%
4.1%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.9%
2.7%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forest Green goals (down), columns = Boston Utd goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Forest Green is 0.46 points better than Boston Utd in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Forest Green is 0.38 goals better than Boston Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Forest Green is 0.35 goals better than Boston Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Forest Green or Draw
71.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
28%
covers Forest Green + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forest Green or Boston Utd
75.7%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
28%
covers Forest Green + Boston Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Boston Utd
52.7%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
28%
covers Draw + Boston Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Forest Green over/under 0.5
Over
84.8%
Under
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 3.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Forest Green, so a minus line means Forest Green give that many goals of a start and Boston Utd receive them. At -1, Forest Green must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Forest Green win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Forest Green)
Forest Green -2
12.4%
Draw -2
14.6%
Boston Utd +2
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Forest Green)
Forest Green -1
27.0%
Draw -1
20.3%
Boston Utd +1
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Forest Green)
Forest Green +1
71.6%
Draw +1
15.2%
Boston Utd -1
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Forest Green)
Forest Green +2
86.8%
Draw +2
8.4%
Boston Utd -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forest Green
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
1.06
0.50
1.38
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.44
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boston Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.53
0.47
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.43
0.53
0.47
1.08
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forest Green
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
1.53
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
1.28
0.39
2.00
0.12
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.17
0.67
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boston Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.67
0.67
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Forest Green and Boston Utd have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Boston Utd have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Boston Utd have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Boston Utd have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →