Forest Green’s attack is primed for a high-scoring outing, having averaged 2.44 goals per game at home against similarly-matched opponents while conceding just 1.44. Gateshead, struggling after a 0-3 loss, averages only a goal per away match and concedes 1.8, suggesting a defensive mismatch that could favour the hosts. The model projects a 61 % chance of a Forest Green win, 21 % for a draw and 18 % for a Gateshead victory, with the most likely result being a 2-1 win for the home side. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively encounter, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-1, carrying a 9.7 % probability. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 6.5 (94.4 %), Home +2 handicap (92.9 %), Home over 0.5 goals (89.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.9 %), Under 5.5 (87.3 %) and Over 1.5 (86.0 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forest Green win
59.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gateshead win
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forest Green
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.37
2.13
1.40
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
3.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.44
2.50
1.50
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
1.22
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.60
1.20
1.53
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.67
1.15
1.62
0.91
1.73
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.1%
1-0
6.6%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
Forest Green goals ↓
Gateshead goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.2%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
1
6.6%
9.8%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.2%
9.7%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
6.0%
7.1%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.3%
3.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forest Green goals (down), columns = Gateshead goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Forest Green is 0.66 points better than Gateshead in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Forest Green is 0.57 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Forest Green is 0.85 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.96).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Forest Green is 2.9 percentage points better than Gateshead in terms of average possession (53% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Forest Green or Draw
81.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Forest Green + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forest Green or Gateshead
78.2%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Forest Green + Gateshead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gateshead
40.7%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Draw + Gateshead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Forest Green over/under 0.5
Over
88.8%
Under
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5
Over
64.2%
Under
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 3.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Forest Green, so a minus line means Forest Green give that many goals of a start and Gateshead receive them. At -1, Forest Green must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Forest Green win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Forest Green)
Forest Green -2
19.6%
Draw -2
18.0%
Gateshead +2
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Forest Green)
Forest Green -1
37.7%
Draw -1
21.6%
Gateshead +1
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Forest Green)
Forest Green +1
81.1%
Draw +1
11.3%
Gateshead -1
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Forest Green)
Forest Green +2
92.4%
Draw +2
5.3%
Gateshead -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forest Green
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
1.06
0.50
1.38
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.44
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.47
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.71
0.46
0.69
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.8%
Under 0.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
Under 1.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.4%
Under 2.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forest Green
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
1.53
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
1.28
0.39
2.00
0.12
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.17
0.67
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.96
0.69
0.92
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.6%
Under 0.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.5%
Under 1.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.3%
Under 2.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Forest Green and Gateshead have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Gateshead have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Gateshead have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →