This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.67
1.27
1.40
0.73
1.93
vs Stronger (27)
1.00
1.63
1.23
1.23
0.79
2.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.6%
@ 2.20+2.9%
Under 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.64-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.5%
0-1 ✓
9.3%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.1%
Forest Green goals ↓
Sutton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
9.3%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.7%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.1%
7.8%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forest Green goals (down), columns = Sutton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Forest Green and Sutton are level in average points per game (both 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Forest Green is 0.33 goals worse than Sutton in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Forest Green is 0.13 goals better than Sutton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Forest Green is 1.3 percentage points better than Sutton in terms of average possession (45% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forest Green
For 3.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 10.2 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sutton
For 5.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forest Green
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.0
10.1
4.0
3.8
4.1
20.4
19.0
21.9
vs Stronger (31)
10.9
11.6
9.9
3.8
3.7
3.9
19.5
18.4
20.7
vs Similar (19)
10.1
9.8
10.3
4.2
4.0
4.4
21.9
20.2
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
65%
54%
54%
54%
54%
44%
35%
54%
% under line
40%
35%
46%
46%
46%
46%
56%
65%
46%
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.7
3.2
4.1
22.2
22.4
22.1
vs Stronger (44)
9.8
9.5
10.0
3.6
3.3
3.9
22.2
22.9
21.7
vs Similar (6)
10.5
11.5
8.5
3.8
2.8
6.0
22.2
19.5
27.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
52%
44%
50%
36%
64%
60%
64%
56%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
50%
64%
36%
40%
36%
44%
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wrexham
11.7
Tranmere
11.4
Grimsby
11.2
Crewe
10.9
Harrogate
10.9
Notts County
10.6
Forest Green
10.6
Mansfield
10.6
Morecambe
10.5
Accrington
10.5
Colchester
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Swindon
10.4
Milton Keynes Dons
10.2
Doncaster
10.2
Newport County
10.1
Bradford
10.0
Crawley Town
9.9
Sutton
9.8
Salford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Gillingham
9.5
Barrow
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Crawley Town
4.7
Colchester
4.6
AFC Wimbledon
4.5
Milton Keynes Dons
4.5
Salford
4.4
Bradford
4.3
Morecambe
4.3
Crewe
4.2
Doncaster
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Barrow
4.0
Swindon
4.0
Walsall
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Tranmere
4.0
Forest Green
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Mansfield
3.8
Sutton
3.7
Wrexham
3.6
Grimsby
3.6
Stockport
3.5
Newport County
3.4
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
24.9
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
Salford
22.7
Stockport
22.5
Barrow
22.5
Grimsby
22.4
Crewe
22.3
Sutton
22.2
Doncaster
22.1
Walsall
21.8
Bradford
21.8
Crawley Town
21.6
Newport County
21.5
Swindon
21.3
Gillingham
21.1
Colchester
20.9
Mansfield
20.8
Morecambe
20.7
Wrexham
20.5
Forest Green
20.4
Tranmere
20.1
Harrogate
19.6
Notts County
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.6%
Under 9.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.4%
Under 3.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
56.2%
Under 21.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forest Green
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.88
0.75
0.75
0.22
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.54
0.29
0.57
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (27)
0.52
0.70
0.69
0.54
0.36
0.86
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forest Green
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.53
0.73
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.82
0.38
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.08
0.71
0.43
0.67
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.60
0.80
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (27)
0.48
0.93
0.54
0.69
0.43
1.14
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Forest Green and Sutton have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Sutton have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Sutton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Forest Green and Sutton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
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