Forfar are the favourites, with a 48% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of an Edinburgh City win. The model expects 2.6 goals overall, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% probability, reflecting the evenly matched form of both sides. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.75 goals scored and concedes one, while Edinburgh City, on the road, averages only 0.6 goals scored and concedes one. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.1% and Under 3.5 goals at 74.0%. The match is poised for a tight contest, with Forfar’s stronger home form giving them a slight edge over the evenly matched away side.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Edinburgh City snatched a 2-1 victory over Forfar, ending the home side’s run of draws and wins. The pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 48% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The match produced the expected total of two goals, and the model’s selections were Over 1.5 (74.1% probability) and Under 3.5 (74.0% probability), both of which hit. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win, proving the model’s pick of a home triumph was incorrect while its other predictions were accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.43
2.00
1.47
1.87
1.40
vs Stronger (18)
1.61
1.67
1.50
1.50
1.75
1.88
vs Similar (9)
2.44
0.89
2.75
1.00
2.20
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.67
4.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
1.23
0.92
1.31
0.85
1.15
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
1.57
1.00
1.71
1.14
1.43
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.6%
1-2 ✓
6.3%
2-2
4.8%
Forfar goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.6%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.4%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.8%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.83
Forfar
1.78
Annan Athletic
1.61
Montrose
1.44
Elgin
1.42
Stirling
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Berwick
1.11
Clyde
1.06
Cowdenbeath
0.97
Forfar is 0.58 points better than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Forfar
1.92
Elgin
1.86
Arbroath
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.69
Berwick
1.39
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Montrose
1.22
Cowdenbeath
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.06
Forfar is 0.86 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.25
Elgin
1.31
Forfar
1.36
Montrose
1.47
Cowdenbeath
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Stirling
1.64
Clyde
1.78
Berwick
1.81
Forfar is 0.11 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Edinburgh City
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.73
0.87
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
0.83
0.50
0.80
1.12
0.88
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.67
1.25
0.75
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.31
0.69
0.31
0.62
0.31
0.77
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.29
0.71
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.27
0.60
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.70
0.62
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.22
1.50
0.25
1.20
0.20
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.54
0.62
0.69
0.54
0.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.33
0.75
0.25
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (15)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (5)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (7)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arbroath
Annan Athletic
Montrose
Elgin
Stirling
Clyde
Cowdenbeath