Forfar’s recent form, ending with a 1-1 draw against Edinburgh City, sets the tone for a high-scoring encounter, while Stirling’s 0-4 loss to Elgin suggests defensive fragility. The model favours a Forfar victory, with a 57% chance of a win, 20% for a draw, and 23% for a Stirling win. The average goal tally is 4.1, and the most likely total is 6 + goals, reflecting the offensive output of both sides. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Forfar, with an 8.4% probability. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 3.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Stirling, away, averages 1.25 scored and 2.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (92.1% probability), Over 2.5 (77.3% probability), and BTTS Yes (73.5% probability). These selections underline the expectation of a lively, goal-laden match.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Forfar, fell short as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. Forfar, fresh from a draw against Edinburgh City, had a strong home form, while Stirling, after a heavy defeat to Elgin, struggled away. The model had assigned a 57% chance to a Forfar victory, but the game ended in a stalemate. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 92.1% probability, Over 2.5 missed at 77.3%, and BTTS Yes also hit at 73.5%. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result of a draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.57
2.21
1.50
1.62
1.62
vs Stronger (19)
1.63
1.79
1.70
1.50
1.56
2.11
vs Similar (9)
2.33
1.11
3.33
1.00
1.83
1.17
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
4.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.77
1.27
1.40
1.47
2.13
vs Stronger (18)
1.33
1.72
1.00
1.56
1.67
1.89
vs Similar (8)
1.38
2.12
1.50
1.50
1.25
2.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
2.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.1%
Under 1.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
77.3%
Under 2.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.2%
Under 3.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.5%
No
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.4%
1-1 ✓
7.3%
3-1
7.0%
2-2
6.6%
3-2
5.5%
2-0
5.3%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.4%
Forfar goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
1
3.6%
7.3%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
2
5.3%
8.4%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
4.4%
7.0%
5.5%
2.9%
1.1%
4
2.8%
4.4%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.83
Forfar
1.78
Annan Athletic
1.61
Montrose
1.44
Elgin
1.42
Stirling
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Berwick
1.11
Clyde
1.06
Cowdenbeath
0.97
Forfar is 0.47 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Forfar
1.92
Elgin
1.86
Arbroath
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.69
Berwick
1.39
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Montrose
1.22
Cowdenbeath
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.06
Forfar is 0.53 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.25
Elgin
1.31
Forfar
1.36
Montrose
1.47
Cowdenbeath
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Stirling
1.64
Clyde
1.78
Berwick
1.81
Forfar is 0.28 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Stirling
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.79
0.93
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
0.95
0.60
0.90
0.89
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.53
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
0.72
0.11
0.67
0.67
0.78
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.43
0.57
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.89
0.84
1.10
0.60
0.67
1.11
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.44
2.00
0.33
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.97
0.93
0.87
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
1.00
0.89
0.89
1.00
1.11
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (15)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (5)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (7)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arbroath
Annan Athletic
Montrose
Elgin
Edinburgh City
Clyde
Cowdenbeath