Fram Reykjavik’s recent win over Stjarnan and a home average of 1.44 goals per match suggest a potent attack, while their 0.89 goals conceded per game indicates a solid defence. Vestri, playing away, averages only 1.0 goal scored and concedes 1.62, hinting at a more vulnerable side. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, with an expected 4.3 goals and a 26 % chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Fram Reykjavik, a 7.9 % probability. The favoured outcome is a home win, with a 59 % chance, a draw at 19 % and an away win at 22 %. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (93.4 %), Home over 0.5 goals (93.0 %), Under 7.5 (93.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.6 %), Home +2 handicap (89.6 %), Home or Away (80.9 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (80.5 %). An Under 6.5 pick is unlikely, at 85.7 %.
Results analysis
Fram Reykjavik’s recent win over Stjarnan keeps their form streak alive as they host Vestri, who also come off a victory. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Fram triumphed 5-2. The pre-match probability for this outcome was 59 %. The model’s selections largely hit: Over 1.5 goals (93.4 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (93.0 %) both materialised, as did Under 7.5 (93.0 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (91.6 %). Home +2 handicap (89.6 %) and Home or Away (80.9 %) were also successful, and Away over 0.5 goals (80.5 %) came through. Only Under 6.5 (85.7 %) missed. The predicted total of 6+ was not reached, but the overall predictions were strong.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fram Reykjavik win✓ Hit
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vestri win✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fram Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.37
1.92
0.85
1.47
1.76
vs Stronger (8)
1.50
1.75
2.00
1.00
1.20
2.20
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.29
1.44
0.89
1.58
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vestri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.67
1.13
1.73
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.82
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.61
1.20
1.60
1.00
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.4%
Under 1.5
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
80.2%
Under 2.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.4%
No
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.9%
3-1
7.0%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
3-2
5.7%
1-2
4.9%
2-0
4.8%
4-1
4.7%
Fram Reykjavik goals ↓
Vestri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.0%
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
1
3.0%
6.6%
4.9%
2.7%
1.1%
2
4.8%
7.9%
6.5%
3.5%
1.4%
3
4.3%
7.0%
5.7%
3.1%
1.3%
4
2.8%
4.7%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fram Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Vestri goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
Fram Reykjavik is 0.40 points better than Vestri in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
Fram Reykjavik is 0.40 goals better than Vestri in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
Fram Reykjavik is 0.40 goals better than Vestri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fram Reykjavik or Draw✓ Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied -
59%
19%
22%
covers Fram Reykjavik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik or Vestri✓ Hit
80.9%
Avg Implied -
59%
19%
22%
covers Fram Reykjavik + Vestri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vestri✗ Miss
41.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
19%
22%
covers Draw + Vestri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.0%
Under
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.3%
Under
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fram Reykjavik, so a minus line means Fram Reykjavik give that many goals of a start and Vestri receive them. At -1, Fram Reykjavik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fram Reykjavik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fram Reykjavik)Actual: Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik -2
22.7%
Draw -2
16.9%
Vestri +2
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fram Reykjavik)Actual: Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik -1
39.7%
Draw -1
19.2%
Vestri +1
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fram Reykjavik)Actual: Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik +1
78.0%
Draw +1
11.6%
Vestri -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fram Reykjavik)Actual: Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik +2
89.6%
Draw +2
6.4%
Vestri -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fram Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.08
0.38
0.76
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.57
0.89
0.33
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vestri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.87
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.00
0.20
1.20
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.61
0.80
0.70
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fram Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.85
0.46
0.71
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.88
1.33
0.33
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.71
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vestri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.53
0.87
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.44
1.00
0.40
0.90
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →