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FS Jelgava vs Grobiņa Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Vs
35%
32%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FS Jelgava win✓ Hit
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D00D23L01L15L02L00D03L10WH·VAL05/11A·TUK11/11H·BFC09/03H·TUK17/03H·MET29/03A·RĪG03/04A·RIG08/04H·AUD13/04H·VAL18/04A·FK 23/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.500.861.291.001.69
vs Stronger (17)0.941.760.751.501.112.00
vs Similar (10)1.001.401.201.000.801.80
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W50W01L02L11D02L11D30W32W04LH·SAL04/11A·TUK12/11H·RIG10/03A·BFC16/03H·AUD31/03A·TUK04/04A·VAL09/04H·MET13/04H·FK 18/04H·RĪG23/04← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.301.002.500.752.071.29
vs Stronger (3)0.332.000.002.501.001.00
vs Similar (20)2.600.953.100.602.101.30
vs Weaker (7)2.290.712.250.252.331.33
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 3.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
11.6%
0-1
10.9%
2-1 ✓
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
6.4%
FS Jelgava goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
01234
013%11%6.4%2.2%0.6%
112%15%7.0%2.4%0.6%
27.1%7.4%3.9%1.3%0.4%
32.6%2.7%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.7%0.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FS Jelgava goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
FS Jelgava is 0.11 points worse than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 0.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
FS Jelgava is 0.17 goals worse than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
FS Jelgava is 0.11 goals worse than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.28 vs 2.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D00D12L01L04L00D00D01L00DH·VAL05/11A·TUK11/11H·BFC09/03H·TUK17/03H·MET29/03A·RĪG03/04A·RIG08/04H·AUD13/04H·VAL18/04A·FK 23/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.670.360.640.250.69
vs Stronger (17)0.290.880.250.620.331.11
vs Similar (10)0.300.400.600.600.000.20
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.001.000.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W01L01L00D01L10W20W11D02LH·SAL04/11A·TUK12/11H·RIG10/03A·BFC16/03H·AUD31/03A·TUK04/04A·VAL09/04H·MET13/04H·FK 18/04H·RĪG23/04← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.431.060.381.290.50
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.001.501.000.00
vs Similar (20)1.200.351.200.201.200.50
vs Weaker (7)1.430.431.250.251.670.67
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D11D00D11D02L00D02L10WH·VAL05/11A·TUK11/11H·BFC09/03H·TUK17/03H·MET29/03A·RĪG03/04A·RIG08/04H·AUD13/04H·VAL18/04A·FK 23/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.500.640.751.00
vs Stronger (17)0.650.880.500.880.780.89
vs Similar (10)0.701.000.600.400.801.60
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D01L11D01L01L10W21W02LH·SAL04/11A·TUK12/11H·RIG10/03A·BFC16/03H·AUD31/03A·TUK04/04A·VAL09/04H·MET13/04H·FK 18/04H·RĪG23/04← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.571.440.380.790.79
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)1.400.601.900.400.900.80
vs Weaker (7)0.860.291.000.000.670.67
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FS Jelgava and Grobiņa have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FS Jelgava and Grobiņa have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FS Jelgava and Grobiņa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FS Jelgava and Grobiņa have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
FJ wins
1
Draws
0
GRO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FS Jelgava vs Grobiņa · H/A from FJ
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/22AGrobiņa Vs FJ0-0
01/05/22HFJ Vs Grobiņa4-0

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/24AFK Liepaja Vs FJ0-1
18/04/24HFJ Vs Valmiera / BSS0-3
13/04/24HFJ Vs Auda0-0
08/04/24ARiga Vs FJ2-0
03/04/24ARīgas FS Vs FJ5-1
29/03/24HFJ Vs Metta / LU0-1
17/03/24HFJ Vs Tukums2-3
09/03/24HFJ Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
11/11/23ATukums Vs FJ0-0
05/11/23HFJ Vs Valmiera / BSS0-1

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/24HGRO Vs Rīgas FS0-4
18/04/24HGRO Vs FK Liepaja3-2
13/04/24HGRO Vs Metta / LU3-0
09/04/24AValmiera / BSS Vs GRO1-1
04/04/24ATukums Vs GRO2-0
31/03/24HGRO Vs Auda1-1
16/03/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs GRO2-0
10/03/24HGRO Vs Riga0-1
12/11/23ATukums II Vs GRO0-5
04/11/23HGRO Vs Saldus SS/Leevon1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW1.26
HomeDLLDL1.38
AwayWDLLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%29%
AVG goals2.822.543.12
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored1.341.271.42
Conceded1.481.271.71
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet30%35%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL2.12
HomeLDWWL2.40
AwayWWLLD1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%76%56%
AVG goals3.824.123.52
Over 1.5 %88%80%96%
Over 2.5 %66%64%68%
Over 3.5 %52%60%44%
Scored2.723.202.24
Conceded1.100.921.28
BTTS50%40%60%
Clean Sheet42%52%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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