PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Result & Analysis

Date: 01/07/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Vs
42%
28%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Metta / LU
Metta / LU
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FS Jelgava win✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L03L12L15L10W04L11D24L03L00DA·TUK07/05A·MET11/05H·RĪG15/05H·RIG19/05A·AUD23/05A·VAL28/05H·FK 02/06A·GRO16/06A·BFC21/06H·TUK26/06
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.630.601.330.931.93
vs Stronger (15)0.802.000.381.881.292.14
vs Similar (12)0.831.251.000.670.671.83
vs Weaker (3)0.331.330.001.000.501.50
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Metta / LUMetta / LU

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W30W04L11D11D06L05L04L03L51WA·FK 06/05H·FS 11/05A·BFC16/05H·TUK21/05H·GRO25/05H·RĪG29/05A·RIG02/06A·AUD16/06A·VAL20/06A·FK 25/06
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.901.381.560.932.29
vs Stronger (26)1.272.081.541.691.002.46
vs Similar (4)0.500.750.671.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0 ✓
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.4%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-2
5.3%
FS Jelgava goals ↓
Metta / LU goals →
01234
08.4%7.2%5.0%2.0%0.6%
19.2%14%7.3%2.9%0.8%
27.6%9.0%5.3%2.1%0.6%
33.7%4.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
41.3%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FS Jelgava goals (down), columns = Metta / LU goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
FS Jelgava is 0.31 points worse than Metta / LU in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
FS Jelgava is 0.17 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
FS Jelgava is 0.17 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals conceded per game (2.28 vs 2.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L10W03L00D02L01L11D00D00DA·TUK07/05A·MET11/05H·RĪG15/05H·RIG19/05A·AUD23/05A·VAL28/05H·FK 02/06A·GRO16/06A·BFC21/06H·TUK26/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.830.270.730.270.93
vs Stronger (15)0.271.000.120.880.431.14
vs Similar (12)0.330.500.500.500.170.50
vs Weaker (3)0.001.330.001.000.001.50
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Metta / LUMetta / LU

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L30W03L00D10W04L00D03L02L01LA·FK 06/05H·FS 11/05A·BFC16/05H·TUK21/05H·GRO25/05H·RĪG29/05A·RIG02/06A·AUD16/06A·VAL20/06A·FK 25/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.560.750.361.14
vs Stronger (26)0.541.040.690.850.381.23
vs Similar (4)0.000.250.000.330.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D02L12L10W02L10W13L03L00DA·TUK07/05A·MET11/05H·RĪG15/05H·RIG19/05A·AUD23/05A·VAL28/05H·FK 02/06A·GRO16/06A·BFC21/06H·TUK26/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.330.600.671.00
vs Stronger (15)0.531.000.251.000.861.00
vs Similar (12)0.500.750.500.170.501.33
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Metta / LUMetta / LU

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W00D01L11D01L02L05L01L01L50WA·FK 06/05H·FS 11/05A·BFC16/05H·TUK21/05H·GRO25/05H·RĪG29/05A·RIG02/06A·AUD16/06A·VAL20/06A·FK 25/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.970.810.810.571.14
vs Stronger (26)0.731.040.850.850.621.23
vs Similar (4)0.500.500.670.670.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.2%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
FS Jelgava's squad is €2m more valuable than Metta / LU's (€3m vs €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
FS Jelgava and Metta / LU have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
FS Jelgava and Metta / LU have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
FS Jelgava's defence is €1m more valuable than Metta / LU's (€1m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
FJ wins
0
Draws
3
M/L wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU · H/A from FJ
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/24AMetta / LU Vs FJ3-0
29/03/24HFJ Vs Metta / LU0-1
22/10/23AMetta / LU Vs FJ0-1
31/07/23AMetta / LU Vs FJ0-1
09/05/23HFJ Vs Metta / LU2-3
15/04/23HFJ Vs Metta / LU2-1

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/06/24HFJ Vs Tukums0-0
21/06/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs FJ3-0
16/06/24AGrobiņa Vs FJ4-2
02/06/24HFJ Vs FK Liepaja1-1
28/05/24AValmiera / BSS Vs FJ4-0
23/05/24AAuda Vs FJ0-1
19/05/24HFJ Vs Riga1-5
15/05/24HFJ Vs Rīgas FS1-2
11/05/24AMetta / LU Vs FJ3-0
07/05/24ATukums Vs FJ2-1

Metta / LUMetta / LU

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/06/24AFK Liepaja Vs M/L1-5
20/06/24AValmiera / BSS Vs M/L3-0
16/06/24AAuda Vs M/L4-0
02/06/24ARiga Vs M/L5-0
29/05/24HM/L Vs Rīgas FS0-6
25/05/24HM/L Vs Grobiņa1-1
21/05/24HM/L Vs Tukums1-1
16/05/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs M/L4-0
11/05/24HM/L Vs FS Jelgava3-0
06/05/24AFK Liepaja Vs M/L1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD0.88
HomeWLLDD0.96
AwayLWLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%21%19%
AVG goals2.682.502.85
Over 1.5 %68%67%69%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored0.921.000.85
Conceded1.761.502.00
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Metta / LU
Metta / LU
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.96
HomeDWDDL1.00
AwayLLLLW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%24%24%
AVG goals3.022.843.20
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored1.161.241.08
Conceded1.861.602.12
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches