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FS Jelgava vs Valmiera / BSS Result & Analysis

Date: 05/11/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 0-1
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Vs
32%
29%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FS Jelgava win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS win✓ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L22D20W53W00D01L11D11D10W02LA·AUD06/08A·VAL13/08H·TUK26/08A·RIG01/09H·BFC16/09H·RĪG24/09A·SUP01/10A·FK 07/10A·MET22/10H·AUD28/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.701.361.431.121.94
vs Stronger (17)1.121.881.121.501.112.22
vs Similar (9)1.331.671.501.001.202.20
vs Weaker (4)1.501.002.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L03L10W41W12L11D23L00D20W14LA·PAR17/08A·RIG26/08H·RĪG02/09A·FK 17/09H·AUD24/09H·SUP27/09A·TUK01/10A·BFC07/10A·SUP22/10A·MET29/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.171.880.941.071.43
vs Stronger (2)0.501.501.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (12)1.081.331.001.331.171.33
vs Weaker (16)1.941.002.560.781.141.29
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1 ✓
8.7%
1-2
8.7%
0-0
8.4%
2-1
7.7%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
5.5%
FS Jelgava goals ↓
Valmiera / BSS goals →
01234
08.4%8.7%7.0%3.3%1.1%
17.6%14%8.7%4.0%1.4%
25.5%7.7%5.4%2.5%0.9%
32.3%3.2%2.2%1.0%0.4%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FS Jelgava goals (down), columns = Valmiera / BSS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
FS Jelgava is 0.36 points worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
FS Jelgava is 0.14 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
FS Jelgava is 0.47 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L10W32W00D01L00D00D00D00DA·AUD06/08A·VAL13/08H·TUK26/08A·RIG01/09H·BFC16/09H·RĪG24/09A·SUP01/10A·FK 07/10A·MET22/10H·AUD28/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.640.430.440.88
vs Stronger (17)0.470.880.380.500.561.22
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.750.250.200.60
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.500.500.500.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W20W00D11D11D00D20W11DA·PAR17/08A·RIG26/08H·RĪG02/09A·FK 17/09H·AUD24/09H·SUP27/09A·TUK01/10A·BFC07/10A·SUP22/10A·MET29/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.400.940.310.500.50
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.500.500.330.330.67
vs Weaker (16)1.060.311.330.330.710.29
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W10W21W00D00D11D11D10W02LA·AUD06/08A·VAL13/08H·TUK26/08A·RIG01/09H·BFC16/09H·RĪG24/09A·SUP01/10A·FK 07/10A·MET22/10H·AUD28/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.030.711.000.691.06
vs Stronger (17)0.651.000.751.000.561.00
vs Similar (9)0.891.220.750.751.001.60
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.501.500.500.00
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L00D21W12L00D12L00D00D03LA·PAR17/08A·RIG26/08H·RĪG02/09A·FK 17/09H·AUD24/09H·SUP27/09A·TUK01/10A·BFC07/10A·SUP22/10A·MET29/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.770.940.620.570.93
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.830.501.000.830.67
vs Weaker (16)0.880.691.220.440.431.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FJ wins
1
Draws
1
V/B wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FS Jelgava vs Valmiera / BSS · H/A from FJ
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FJ2-2
05/06/23HFJ Vs Valmiera / BSS2-0
24/04/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FJ2-0

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23HFJ Vs Auda0-2
22/10/23AMetta / LU Vs FJ0-1
07/10/23AFK Liepaja Vs FJ1-1
01/10/23ASuper Nova Vs FJ1-1
24/09/23HFJ Vs Rīgas FS0-1
16/09/23HFJ Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
01/09/23ARiga Vs FJ3-5
26/08/23HFJ Vs Tukums2-0
13/08/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FJ2-2
06/08/23AAuda Vs FJ3-0

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/23AMetta / LU Vs V/B4-1
22/10/23ASuper Nova Vs V/B0-2
07/10/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B0-0
01/10/23ATukums Vs V/B3-2
27/09/23HV/B Vs Super Nova1-1
24/09/23HV/B Vs Auda1-2
17/09/23AFK Liepaja Vs V/B1-4
02/09/23HV/B Vs Rīgas FS1-0
26/08/23ARiga Vs V/B3-0
17/08/23APartizani Vs V/B1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.64
HomeWWDLL1.82
AwayDWDDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%55%43%
AVG goals3.002.953.04
Over 1.5 %78%82%75%
Over 2.5 %54%55%54%
Over 3.5 %38%36%39%
Scored1.701.681.71
Conceded1.301.271.32
BTTS44%50%39%
Clean Sheet38%36%39%
Corners---
Cards---
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWL1.52
HomeLDWLD1.67
AwayWLDWL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals2.782.712.85
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.681.751.62
Conceded1.100.961.23
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners8.337.339.33
Cards3.834.673.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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