The match between Fylde and Carlisle sits on a razor-thin edge. The model’s favourite is an away win, with a 39% chance, while a home win stands at 32% and a draw at 29%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% probability. Fylde, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded, whereas Carlisle, on the road against a stronger opponent, manages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 3.0. Fylde’s recent form is a win, loss, win, draw, loss, and they just beat Forest Green 2-0; Carlisle remains unbeaten in their last five with a 1-1 draw against Wealdstone. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Under 4.5 (87.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.5%) and Away +2 handicap (86.0%). Each pick carries its own probability, reflecting the uncertainty that keeps both sides in the balance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylde win
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carlisle win
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
F
Fylde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.47
1.47
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.50
1.83
1.17
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
1.55
1.12
1.62
1.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.29
1.14
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (27)
2.00
1.15
2.38
1.15
1.64
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
5.8%
Fylde goals ↓
Carlisle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.7%
6.3%
3.0%
1.0%
1
7.3%
13%
8.5%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.1%
5.7%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.6%
3.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylde goals (down), columns = Carlisle goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Fylde is 0.67 points worse than Carlisle in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Fylde is 0.42 goals worse than Carlisle in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Fylde is 0.35 goals worse than Carlisle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fylde or Draw
62.6%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers Fylde + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylde or Carlisle
72.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers Fylde + Carlisle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Carlisle
65.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers Draw + Carlisle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fylde over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5
Over
75.6%
Under
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fylde, so a minus line means Fylde give that many goals of a start and Carlisle receive them. At -1, Fylde must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fylde win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fylde)
Fylde -2
5.8%
Draw -2
10.4%
Carlisle +2
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fylde)
Fylde -1
16.2%
Draw -1
18.5%
Carlisle +1
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fylde)
Fylde +1
62.6%
Draw +1
19.4%
Carlisle -1
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fylde)
Fylde +2
81.9%
Draw +2
11.4%
Carlisle -2
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
F
Fylde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.47
0.60
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.92
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.57
0.57
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (27)
1.11
0.52
1.62
0.54
0.64
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylde over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
F
Fylde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.88
1.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.45
0.85
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.71
0.57
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.63
0.77
0.62
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylde over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →