Fylde are tipped to win, the model’s pick for a home victory, with a 49% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 26% for Wealdstone. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% chance. Fylde’s home form shows they average one goal scored and 1.71 conceded against weaker opposition, while Wealdstone, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.5 scored and 4.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 96.1%, Home under 3.5 goals89.1%, Home +2 handicap88.9%, Away under 2.5 goals86.7%, Home over 0.5 goals83.5%, Over 1.582.0%, Under 5.5 cards81.7%, and Home or Away74.8% (miss). Both sides have recently lost their last matches, with Fylde down 2-3 to Woking and Wealdstone 1-3 to Harrogate.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Fylde, fell short in a 2-2 draw, a shock that underscored the match’s unpredictability. The model had tipped a home win with a 49 % probability, but that call proved wrong. The game finished 2-2, confirming the actual result of a draw. The model’s selections performed largely as expected: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 89.1 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 88.9 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 86.7 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 83.5 %, Over 1.5 hit at 82.0 %, while Home or Away missed at 74.8 %. Fylde’s recent form, a string of losses, and Wealdstone’s similar slump set the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylde win✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
F
Fylde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.73
1.44
1.56
0.79
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.50
1.83
1.17
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
1.75
1.11
1.78
0.82
1.73
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wealdstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.80
1.93
1.36
0.88
2.19
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
4.33
0.00
4.00
0.50
4.50
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.52
2.08
1.15
0.93
1.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.0%
Under 2.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
1-2
6.7%
2-2 ✓
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
5.8%
Fylde goals ↓
Wealdstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
4.8%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.4%
12%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.6%
5.8%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylde goals (down), columns = Wealdstone goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Fylde is 0.16 points better than Wealdstone in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Fylde is 0.02 goals worse than Wealdstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Fylde is 0.19 goals better than Wealdstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fylde or Draw✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Fylde + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylde or Wealdstone✗ Miss
74.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Fylde + Wealdstone
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Wealdstone✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Draw + Wealdstone
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fylde over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.5%
Under
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fylde, so a minus line means Fylde give that many goals of a start and Wealdstone receive them. At -1, Fylde must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fylde win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fylde)Actual: Wealdstone
Fylde -2
12.5%
Draw -2
15.3%
Wealdstone +2
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fylde)Actual: Wealdstone
Fylde -1
27.8%
Draw -1
21.3%
Wealdstone +1
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fylde)Actual: Fylde
Fylde +1
74.3%
Draw +1
14.6%
Wealdstone -1
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fylde)Actual: Fylde
Fylde +2
88.9%
Draw +2
7.4%
Wealdstone -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
F
Fylde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.56
0.62
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.80
0.67
0.78
0.64
0.82
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wealdstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.79
0.57
0.38
1.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.78
0.85
0.46
0.43
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
F
Fylde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.88
0.94
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.88
1.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.30
0.95
0.44
1.00
0.18
0.91
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wealdstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.14
0.79
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.74
1.23
0.69
0.50
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →