Fylkir’s recent 6-1 triumph over Grindavik signals a potent attack, and the model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 4.6 goals and a 32% chance of 6 + total goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 6.9% probability. Home win is the favoured outcome at 53%, with a draw at 19% and an away win at 28%. Fylkir averages 2.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded at home against similarly-matched opponents, while FH Hafnarfjordur nets 2.2 and concedes 1.6 on the road. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (95.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.1%), Under 7.5 (90.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (85.8% miss), Home +2 handicap (85.7%), Over 2.5 (84.0%), and Under 6.5 (81.5%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a high-scoring, home-side victory.
Results analysis
Fylkir’s recent win over Grindavik extended their form, and the model’s 53% favourite call for a home victory proved correct as Fylkir secured a 5-0 triumph. The pre-match pick of a home win, backed by a 53% probability, was right. The model’s selections largely hit: Over 1.5 (95%) and Home over 0.5 goals (93.1%) both came through, as did Under 7.5 (90.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.6%), Home +2 handicap (85.7%), Over 2.5 (84.0%) and Under 6.5 (81.5%). Only the Away over 0.5 goals (85.8%) missed, as FH scored none. The match finished 5-0, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylkir win✓ Hit
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.37
2.19
1.44
1.64
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
1.33
3.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.84
1.36
2.15
1.38
1.50
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FH hafnarfjordur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.60
1.93
1.07
2.06
2.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.90
2.00
2.00
0.75
1.83
2.83
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.40
1.90
1.20
2.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (32%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.0%
Under 1.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
84.0%
Under 2.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.8%
Under 3.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
80.3%
No
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
6.0%
1-1
5.7%
1-2
5.0%
2-3
4.3%
4-1
4.1%
Fylkir goals ↓
FH hafnarfjordur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.5%
1.4%
1.9%
1.2%
0.6%
1
2.1%
5.7%
5.0%
3.3%
1.6%
2
3.5%
6.9%
6.7%
4.3%
2.1%
3
3.1%
6.1%
6.0%
3.9%
1.9%
4
2.1%
4.1%
4.0%
2.6%
1.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylkir goals (down), columns = FH hafnarfjordur goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fram Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.40
Kári
2.25
Keflavik
2.25
Stjarnan
2.25
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vestri
2.20
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Fjolnir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Njardvik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KA Akureyri
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
RB
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Höttur / Huginn
1.50
Smári
1.50
BF 108
1.50
Kría
1.50
KFR
1.50
Hafnir
1.50
ÍH
1.50
Augnablik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Magni
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
Árbær
1.50
Sindri
1.50
Ellidi
1.50
KV
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.33
Völsungur
1.33
Reynir Hellissandur
1.10
KB
1.10
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Ægir
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
KFG
0.00
SR
0.00
Vængir Júpiters
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
0.00
Léttir
0.00
KF
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Ýmir
0.00
KH
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Fylkir is 1.50 points better than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
6.50
Kári
5.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
4.67
Stjarnan
4.50
Njardvik
4.00
BF 108
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
3.67
HK Kopavogur
3.50
Fylkir
3.50
Keflavik
3.50
Thor Akureyri
3.50
Selfoss
3.33
IR Reykjavik
3.00
Grindavik
3.00
KA Akureyri
3.00
Álafoss
3.00
Tindastóll
3.00
ÍH
3.00
KF
3.00
Hvíti riddarinn
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Ýmir
3.00
Breidablik
3.00
Leiknir R.
2.50
Smári
2.50
KFR
2.50
Spyrnir
2.50
Árbær
2.50
Völsungur
2.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.33
Reynir Hellissandur
2.03
KB
2.03
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Ægir
2.00
RB
2.00
KFG
2.00
SR
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Magni
2.00
KV
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.80
Úlfarnir
1.67
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.67
Vestri
1.60
Grotta
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Fram Reykjavik
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.00
Kría
1.00
Hamar
1.00
KFS
1.00
Léttir
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thorlákur
1.00
KH
1.00
Höttur / Huginn
0.50
Álftanes
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Fylkir is 3.50 goals better than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Afturelding
0.33
Leiknir R.
0.50
Sindri
0.50
Fram Reykjavik
0.50
Vestri
0.80
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IA Akranes
1.00
Vídir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Haukar
1.67
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.00
Vængir Júpiters
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Hvíti riddarinn
2.00
Ellidi
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Einherji
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Njardvik
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.50
Smári
2.50
BF 108
2.50
KFR
2.50
Augnablik
2.50
Úlfarnir
2.67
Reynir Hellissandur
2.74
KB
2.74
Kári
2.75
Ægir
3.00
Álftanes
3.00
KFG
3.00
SR
3.00
Kría
3.00
Hamar
3.00
ÍH
3.00
Stokkseyri
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
Stjarnan
3.25
RB
3.50
Reynir
3.50
Dalvík / Reynir
4.00
Álafoss
4.00
Árborg
4.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
4.00
Thorlákur
4.00
Ýmir
4.00
KH
4.00
KV
4.00
Fálkar
4.00
Magni
4.50
Árbær
4.50
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.67
Hafnir
5.00
KF
5.00
Neisti D.
5.00
ÍBU
6.00
Thróttur Vogar
6.00
KFS
7.00
Afríka
8.00
Fylkir is 0.50 goals worse than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fylkir or Draw✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied -
53%
19%
28%
covers Fylkir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylkir or FH hafnarfjordur✓ Hit
80.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
19%
28%
covers Fylkir + FH hafnarfjordur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FH hafnarfjordur✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
19%
28%
covers Draw + FH hafnarfjordur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fylkir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.1%
Under
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fylkir, so a minus line means Fylkir give that many goals of a start and FH hafnarfjordur receive them. At -1, Fylkir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fylkir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir -2
19.6%
Draw -2
15.3%
FH hafnarfjordur +2
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir -1
34.9%
Draw -1
18.3%
FH hafnarfjordur +1
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +1
72.5%
Draw +1
13.2%
FH hafnarfjordur -1
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +2
85.7%
Draw +2
8.1%
FH hafnarfjordur -2
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.12
0.62
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.72
1.00
0.69
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FH hafnarfjordur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.67
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.55
0.60
0.60
1.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.06
0.81
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.64
1.15
0.69
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FH hafnarfjordur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.21
0.57
1.06
1.19
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.17
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.85
1.30
0.60
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →