Fylkir’s recent win and a 6-1 demolition of Grindavik suggest a potent attack, while IBV Vestmannaeyjar’s 0-1 loss to Keflavik after two defeats signals defensive frailties. The model projects a 48 % chance of a home win, 24 % for a draw and 28 % for an away victory, making a home win the clear favourite. With an expected 3.4 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.5 % chance. Fylkir averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas IBV averages 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8 %), Under 6.5 (94.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.1 %), Home +2 handicap (86.9 %), Over 1.5 (86.0 %), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.4 %). The model’s selection for Under 5.5 (87.4 %) is a miss, as is Home under 3.5 goals (87.1 %).
Results analysis
Fylkir’s recent win over Grindavik has kept their form upbeat, and the League Cup clash against IBV Vestmannaeyjar delivered exactly what the Pythia model had predicted. The final score of 4-2 confirmed a home victory, matching the model’s favourite and its 48 % probability. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 (97.8 %) and Under 6.5 (94.4 %) were both correct, as were Away under 3.5 goals (94.1 %), Home +2 handicap (86.9 %), Over 1.5 (86.0 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.4 %). Two picks missed: Under 5.5 (87.4 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (87.1 %). Overall, the Pythia prediction proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylkir win✓ Hit
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.40
1.73
1.40
1.87
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
1.75
2.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.67
1.33
1.55
1.18
1.77
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
1.47
1.12
1.46
1.54
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.11
1.33
0.67
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.38
1.55
1.36
1.50
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.3%
No
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
5.9%
1-0
5.6%
0-0
4.4%
Fylkir goals ↓
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
4.0%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
1
5.6%
11%
6.9%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.3%
9.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.1%
5.9%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
4
2.0%
2.8%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylkir goals (down), columns = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
Fylkir is 1.20 points better than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
Fylkir is 0.49 goals better than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
Fylkir is 1.74 goals better than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fylkir or Draw✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
24%
28%
covers Fylkir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylkir or IBV Vestmannaeyjar✓ Hit
76.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
24%
28%
covers Fylkir + IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar✗ Miss
52.2%
Avg Implied -
48%
24%
28%
covers Draw + IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fylkir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.4%
Under
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fylkir, so a minus line means Fylkir give that many goals of a start and IBV Vestmannaeyjar receive them. At -1, Fylkir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fylkir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fylkir)Actual: Draw
Fylkir -2
12.8%
Draw -2
14.7%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar +2
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir -1
27.6%
Draw -1
20.3%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar +1
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +1
71.8%
Draw +1
15.0%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.4%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.58
0.64
0.45
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.53
0.59
0.77
0.85
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.71
0.64
0.73
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.83
0.80
0.93
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.75
0.91
0.73
1.23
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.94
0.53
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.44
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.67
0.91
0.64
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →