Fylkir’s recent win and KR Reykjavik’s unbeaten run set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.5 goals. The most probable total is three, yet the single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 10.1 % chance. KR Reykjavik is favoured to win, with a 47 % chance of victory, 24 % for a draw and 30 % for a home win. Fylkir, at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while KR Reykjavik, playing away, averages 1.91 goals scored and 2.45 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.4 %), Under 6.5 (93.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.0 %), Over 1.5 (87.2 % hit), Away under 3.5 goals (86.6 %), Under 5.5 (86.0 %), Away over 0.5 goals (85.8 % hit) and Away +2 handicap (85.7 % hit). Each pick is listed with its probability, and the match result probabilities are explicitly stated.
Results analysis
Fylkir finished 4-4 against KR Reykjavik (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 30% home win, 24% draw and 47% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (87%), Away over 0.5 goals (86%), Away +2 handicap (86%). Missed: Under 7.5 (97%), Under 6.5 (94%), Home under 3.5 goals (93%), Away under 3.5 goals (87%), Under 5.5 (86%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylkir win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik win✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.43
1.79
1.57
1.88
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
1.75
2.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.38
1.60
1.40
1.79
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
2.17
2.40
2.13
1.93
2.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.67
0.00
7.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.29
2.12
2.62
1.85
1.91
2.45
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.6%
Under 2.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.0%
Under 3.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.2%
No
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
5.8%
0-1
5.1%
2-3
4.5%
Fylkir goals ↓
KR Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
5.1%
5.8%
3.8%
1.8%
1
3.8%
10%
8.9%
5.8%
2.8%
2
3.6%
7.0%
6.9%
4.5%
2.2%
3
1.9%
3.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.1%
4
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylkir goals (down), columns = KR Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
Fylkir is 0.50 points worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
Fylkir is 1.38 goals worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 3.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
Fylkir is 0.48 goals better than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fylkir or Draw✓ Hit
53.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
24%
47%
covers Fylkir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylkir or KR Reykjavik✗ Miss
76.3%
Avg Implied -
30%
24%
47%
covers Fylkir + KR Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or KR Reykjavik✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied -
30%
24%
47%
covers Draw + KR Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fylkir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fylkir, so a minus line means Fylkir give that many goals of a start and KR Reykjavik receive them. At -1, Fylkir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fylkir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fylkir)Actual: KR Reykjavik
Fylkir -2
5.4%
Draw -2
8.9%
KR Reykjavik +2
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fylkir)Actual: KR Reykjavik
Fylkir -1
14.3%
Draw -1
15.4%
KR Reykjavik +1
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +1
53.4%
Draw +1
19.8%
KR Reykjavik -1
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +2
73.2%
Draw +2
14.3%
KR Reykjavik -2
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.57
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.62
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
0.87
1.13
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.92
1.00
0.92
0.91
0.91
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
0.86
1.00
1.25
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.80
1.21
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.53
1.00
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.21
1.62
0.92
1.00
1.55
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →