The encounter between Galway United and Shelbourne is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 33% and 39% respectively, while a draw is 28%. The expected total is 2.8 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.2% chance. Galway, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Shelbourne, on the road, averages 1.42 scored and 1.17 conceded. The suggested picks, each with its own probability, are: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.1% with a 4% edge), and Under 5.5 (94.8% with a 3% edge). Galway’s recent unbeaten run (WDDDW) and Shelbourne’s draw-heavy streak (DLLLW) add nuance, but the model remains clear: Shelbourne are the favourites to lift the trophy.
Results analysis
The draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Shelbourne, had been tipped to win with a 39% chance, but the model’s call was wrong. Galway United and Shelbourne finished 1-1, a result that matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, which carried a 13.3% probability. The home side had been unbeaten in their last five, while the visitors had slipped into a streak of draws and losses. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%) and Under 5.5 (94.8%). The model’s selections proved accurate, even though its favourite prediction failed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Galway United win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.55
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.69
Unibet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.57
1xBet
2.57
Bet365
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.32
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
1xBet
3.36
Unibet
3.35
Shelbourne win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.59
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.72
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Galway United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.43
1.50
1.06
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.23
1.47
1.43
1.50
1.06
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.31
1.81
1.29
1.21
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.46
1.36
1.71
1.42
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
@ 1.27+4.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
@ 3.44-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Under
10Bet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.71
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
@ 1.88+1.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
@ 1.88-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Under
SBO
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
@ 3.16+0.4%
Under 3.5
70.2%
@ 1.32-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.27
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Under
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
@ 1.68+1.7%
No
43.0%
@ 2.07-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
BetVictor
1.70
No
William Hil
2.25
10Bet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Bet365
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.3%@ 6.13+6.0%
1-2
8.7%@ 9.02+3.7%
0-1
8.0%@ 8.34+2.6%
2-1
7.9%@ 9.06+3.0%
0-0
7.6%@ 9.55+2.9%
1-0
7.1%@ 8.31+1.8%
0-2
6.6%@ 12.47+3.0%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.33+2.1%
Galway United goals ↓
Shelbourne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
8.0%
6.6%
3.2%
1.1%
1
7.1%
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.5%
7.9%
5.7%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.4%
3.5%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Galway United goals (down), columns = Shelbourne goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Galway United is 0.08 points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Galway United is 0.08 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Galway United is 0.06 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Galway United is 13.3 percentage points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average possession (40% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Galway United
For 4.5 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
For 4.3 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Galway United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.7
10.4
4.4
4.6
4.2
23.4
24.3
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.6
10.7
10.4
4.4
4.6
4.2
23.4
24.3
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
62%
60%
68%
76%
60%
65%
71%
60%
% under line
39%
38%
40%
32%
24%
40%
35%
29%
40%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
10.0
4.4
4.5
4.2
21.3
21.3
21.3
vs Stronger (10)
11.4
10.8
12.0
2.9
2.6
3.2
19.8
20.8
18.8
vs Similar (40)
9.4
9.3
9.5
4.7
5.0
4.5
21.7
21.5
21.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
57%
50%
60%
64%
56%
53%
57%
50%
% under line
47%
43%
50%
40%
36%
44%
47%
43%
50%
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.2
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.3
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
10.0
Shelbourne
9.7
Derry City
9.5
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Shelbourne
4.8
Waterford
4.7
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Galway United
23.4
Dundalk
23.4
Bohemians
23.3
Derry City
23.0
St Patrick's Athl.
22.9
Shamrock Rovers
22.8
Waterford
22.5
Drogheda United
22.0
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.7%
@ 1.75+6.8%
Under 9.5
40.3%
@ 1.97-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.4%
Under 3.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Galway United or Draw✓ Hit
55.7%
Avg Implied 64.1% · @ 1.45
Edge
-8.3%
33%
28%
39%
covers Galway United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.46
BetVictor
1.44
Galway United or Shelbourne✗ Miss
71.9%
Avg Implied 72.5% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.6%
33%
28%
39%
covers Galway United + Shelbourne
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Draw or Shelbourne✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.47
Edge
+8.9%
33%
28%
39%
covers Draw + Shelbourne
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Galway United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.9%
@ 1.27-5.1%
Under
32.1%
@ 3.43+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
Galway United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
@ 2.35-8.2%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.54+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.44
Pinnacle
2.44
BetVictor
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Betfair
2.38
Under
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Galway United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.29-6.8%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.13+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.55
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.30
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Galway United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 10.92-5.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Shelbourne over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.6%
@ 1.28+5.1%
Under
22.4%
@ 3.38-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.51
Unibet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Shelbourne over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.1%
@ 2.39+5.2%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.53-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
Betfair
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Superbet
2.42
Under
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Shelbourne over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 5.36+1.8%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.12-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Shelbourne over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 11.58-1.6%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Galway United, so a minus line means Galway United give that many goals of a start and Shelbourne receive them. At -1, Galway United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Galway United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Galway United)Actual: Shelbourne
Galway United -2
3.5%
@ 11.00-4.6%
Draw -2
7.9%
@ 6.71-5.4%
Shelbourne +2
88.6%
@ 1.13+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Galway United)Actual: Shelbourne
Galway United -1
11.4%
@ 4.98-6.5%
Draw -1
16.2%
@ 4.15-5.3%
Shelbourne +1
72.4%
@ 1.47+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Galway United)Actual: Galway United
Galway United +1
55.7%
@ 1.48-5.3%
Draw +1
21.7%
@ 4.19+0.2%
Shelbourne -1
22.6%
@ 5.14+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Galway United)Actual: Galway United
Galway United +2
77.4%
@ 1.12-1.5%
Draw +2
13.7%
@ 6.80+0.7%
Shelbourne -2
8.9%
@ 10.97+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.90
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Galway United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.63
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.56
1.00
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.73
0.57
0.79
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.4%
@ 1.36+0.0%
Under 0.5
31.6%
@ 2.94-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.13
10Bet
3.10
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.8%
@ 2.69-0.7%
Under 1.5
66.2%
@ 1.42+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Betano
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Superbet
2.77
Under
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 6.50-2.1%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.08+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Under
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Galway United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.4%
@ 2.04-0.0%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.70+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Galway United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 6.24-3.1%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.08+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.55
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Galway United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 16.00-3.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.6%
@ 2.05-4.6%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.69+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Unibet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 6.25-4.4%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.08+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.60
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 15.00-4.2%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Galway United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
1.00
0.93
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.83
1.00
0.93
0.56
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.75
0.81
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.73
0.79
0.93
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.8%
@ 1.22+1.9%
Under 0.5
22.2%
@ 3.84-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
3.90
Marathonbet
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.6%
@ 2.03-4.1%
Under 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.71+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 4.25-4.7%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.18+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.33
William Hil
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Galway United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.1%
@ 1.74-2.0%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.97+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Galway United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 4.60-3.7%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.16+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Galway United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 10.62-5.9%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.2%
@ 1.76-1.3%
Under
48.8%
@ 1.95+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 4.64-3.3%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.16+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 11.12-4.5%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.8%
1.03
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.3%
1.10
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
1.12
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
1.28
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.3%
1.27
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.28
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.4%
1.47
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
72.4%
1.47
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.9%
1.29
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.6%
1.42
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
+6.9%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.2%
1.32
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
-0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Galway United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristopher Twardek29%
Frantz Pierrot22%
J. Keohane13%
Francely Lomboto11%
M. Wolfe9%
A. Bolger8%
S. Walsh8%
E. McCarthy8%
Axel Piesold8%
D. Hurley7%
Killian Brouder5%
Wasiri Ola Williams4%
Dylan Connolly0%
Conor McCormack0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Gianfranco Facchineri0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Connor Barratt0%
Arthur Parker0%
Evan Watts0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Lee Devitt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leigh Kavanagh20%
Wasiri Ola Williams20%
S. Walsh19%
D. Hurley19%
M. Wolfe18%
Gianfranco Facchineri17%
A. Bolger16%
Lee Devitt16%
Connor Barratt16%
Al-Amin Kazeem15%
Kristopher Twardek14%
J. Keohane13%
Evan Watts10%
Frantz Pierrot9%
Conor McCormack8%
Arthur Parker8%
E. McCarthy8%
Axel Piesold8%
Francely Lomboto5%
Killian Brouder5%
Dylan Connolly0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kristopher Twardek24%
D. Hurley22%
J. Keohane13%
S. Walsh12%
A. Bolger8%
Axel Piesold8%
M. Wolfe5%
Wasiri Ola Williams4%
Dylan Connolly0%
Conor McCormack0%
Killian Brouder0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Frantz Pierrot0%
Gianfranco Facchineri0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
Francely Lomboto0%
E. McCarthy0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Connor Barratt0%
Arthur Parker0%
Evan Watts0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Lee Devitt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Walsh15%
Frantz Pierrot13%
Francely Lomboto11%
Kristopher Twardek10%
J. Keohane9%
D. Hurley7%
M. Wolfe5%
A. Bolger4%
E. McCarthy4%
Dylan Connolly0%
Conor McCormack0%
Killian Brouder0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Gianfranco Facchineri0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
Hugo Cunha0%
Connor Barratt0%
Arthur Parker0%
Wasiri Ola Williams0%
Axel Piesold0%
Evan Watts0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Lee Devitt0%
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
John Martin38%
Harry Wood32%
D. Kelly24%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
James Norris14%
S. Moore12%
P. Barrett12%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi11%
Sean Boyd11%
Jack Henry-Francis11%
Alistair Coote9%
Sam Bone5%
W. Jarvis5%
Kerr McInroy5%
Rodrigo Freitas5%
Evan Caffrey4%
Ellis Chapman0%
S. Gannon0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Odhran Casey0%
K. Ledwidge0%
Wessel Speel0%
Eddie Beach0%
Maill Lundgren0%
Milan Mbeng0%
James Roche0%
Daniel Ring0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Roche40%
Jonathan Lunney32%
John Martin31%
P. Barrett29%
S. Gannon29%
Kerr McInroy29%
D. Kelly28%
Rodrigo Freitas27%
Jack Henry-Francis26%
Maill Lundgren23%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi22%
Sean Boyd22%
Sam Bone20%
Evan Caffrey20%
Alistair Coote17%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
James Norris14%
Odhran Casey12%
S. Moore12%
Harry Wood9%
K. Ledwidge7%
Milan Mbeng7%
W. Jarvis5%
Wessel Speel4%
Ellis Chapman0%
Eddie Beach0%
Daniel Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maill Lundgren23%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
Harry Wood14%
John Martin12%
Kerr McInroy10%
Alistair Coote9%
Milan Mbeng7%
Jack Henry-Francis5%
Sam Bone5%
W. Jarvis5%
Rodrigo Freitas5%
Evan Caffrey4%
K. Ledwidge4%
Ellis Chapman0%
S. Gannon0%
D. Kelly0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
P. Barrett0%
Odhran Casey0%
James Norris0%
Wessel Speel0%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi0%
Eddie Beach0%
S. Moore0%
James Roche0%
Daniel Ring0%
Sean Boyd0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
John Martin38%
Harry Wood18%
Ademipo Odubeko17%
Milan Mbeng14%
Kerr McInroy10%
D. Kelly8%
P. Barrett6%
Sean Boyd6%
Alistair Coote4%
Evan Caffrey4%
Ellis Chapman0%
S. Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Odhran Casey0%
James Norris0%
K. Ledwidge0%
Wessel Speel0%
Zeno Ibsen Rossi0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Eddie Beach0%
Maill Lundgren0%
W. Jarvis0%
S. Moore0%
James Roche0%
Daniel Ring0%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Galway United's squad is €1m less valuable than Shelbourne's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Galway United and Shelbourne have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Galway United and Shelbourne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Galway United and Shelbourne have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Dundalk
Derry City
Waterford
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers