The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3. The favored outcome is a home win, with probabilities of 56% for a GAP Connah S Quay FC victory, 23% for a draw, and 22% for a Penybont win. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.9% chance, reflecting the balanced attack and defense of both sides. GAP Connah S Quay FC, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, while Penybont, away, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (94.2%), Home +2 handicap (90.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.1%), Under 5.5 (87.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.3%) and Over 1.5 (86.2%). Both teams are on strong runs - GAP Connah S Quay FC on five straight wins, Penybont unbeaten in five - setting the stage for a competitive, goal-laden match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC win
52.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont win
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.50
1.14
2.06
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
2.22
1.04
2.20
1.30
2.23
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.50
4.50
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
0.73
0.80
1.73
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.25
0.67
0.75
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.3%
No
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.0%
3-1
6.4%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-0
4.8%
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals ↓
Penybont goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
1
6.0%
10%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.0%
9.5%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.8%
6.4%
4.3%
1.9%
0.7%
4
2.4%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.50 points better than Penybont in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 1.17 goals better than Penybont in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.17 goals better than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
GAP Connah S Quay FC or Draw
75.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
23%
24%
covers GAP Connah S Quay FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC or Penybont
76.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
23%
24%
covers GAP Connah S Quay FC + Penybont
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Penybont
47.4%
Avg Implied -
53%
23%
24%
covers Draw + Penybont
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
Under
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5
Over
60.5%
Under
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5
Over
74.0%
Under
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to GAP Connah S Quay FC, so a minus line means GAP Connah S Quay FC give that many goals of a start and Penybont receive them. At -1, GAP Connah S Quay FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal GAP Connah S Quay FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC -2
15.5%
Draw -2
16.2%
Penybont +2
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC -1
31.7%
Draw -1
20.9%
Penybont +1
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC +1
75.8%
Draw +1
13.5%
Penybont -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.0%
Penybont -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.14
0.29
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.39
1.00
0.40
1.23
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.27
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.62
0.25
0.25
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.36
0.86
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.65
1.20
0.90
1.00
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penybont
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.42
0.50
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell