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Gareji vs Merani Tbilisi Result & Analysis

Date: 03/08/2023
Time: 13:30
Final 5-1
Gareji
Gareji
Vs
71%
18%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Gareji win✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D61W20W20W51W32W32W22D30W01LA·KOL26/04A·MER01/05H·SIO05/05A·DIN11/05H·MER15/05A·SPA19/05H·LOK23/05A·KOL31/05A·WIT04/06H·KOL10/06
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.030.932.200.801.871.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)2.100.902.200.802.001.00
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W16L15L11D05L00D05L00D03L25LH·LOK25/04H·GAR01/05A·WIT05/05H·KOL11/05H·KOL15/05A·SIO19/05H·DIN23/05A·MER31/05H·SPA04/06A·LOK09/06
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.270.732.531.072.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)1.002.270.852.541.152.00
vs Weaker (2)0.503.500.003.001.004.00
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.3%
1-0
9.1%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.5%
0-0
5.0%
Gareji goals ↓
Merani Tbilisi goals →
01234
05.0%2.6%1.4%0.4%0.1%
19.1%8.8%3.2%0.9%0.2%
212%9.5%3.8%1.0%0.2%
39.3%7.5%3.0%0.8%0.2%
45.5%4.4%1.8%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Merani Tbilisi goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kolkheti Poti
2.14
Gareji
2.11
Spaeri
1.83
Sioni
1.64
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.28
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.11
Merani Martvili
0.72
Merani Tbilisi
0.39
Gareji is 1.72 points better than Merani Tbilisi in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 0.39).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Gareji
2.44
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.97
Kolkheti Poti
1.94
Sioni
1.89
Spaeri
1.89
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.53
WIT Georgia
1.44
Kolkheti Khobi
1.22
Merani Martvili
0.94
Merani Tbilisi
0.81
Gareji is 1.64 goals better than Merani Tbilisi in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 0.81).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kolkheti Poti
0.78
Gareji
1.06
Sioni
1.28
Spaeri
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.58
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.61
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.61
Merani Martvili
2.33
Merani Tbilisi
3.06
Gareji is 2.00 goals better than Merani Tbilisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 3.06).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D10W00D00D50W10W12L11D00D00DA·KOL26/04A·MER01/05H·SIO05/05A·DIN11/05H·MER15/05A·SPA19/05H·LOK23/05A·KOL31/05A·WIT04/06H·KOL10/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.330.870.400.600.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.760.340.870.400.640.29
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L11D10W02L00D00D00D02L12LH·LOK25/04H·GAR01/05A·WIT05/05H·KOL11/05H·KOL15/05A·SIO19/05H·DIN23/05A·MER31/05H·SPA04/06A·LOK09/06
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.030.401.130.530.93
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.540.960.461.080.620.85
vs Weaker (2)0.002.500.002.000.003.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D51W20W20W01L22D20W11D30W01LA·KOL26/04A·MER01/05H·SIO05/05A·DIN11/05H·MER15/05A·SPA19/05H·LOK23/05A·KOL31/05A·WIT04/06H·KOL10/06
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.601.330.401.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.340.551.330.401.360.71
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D15L04L01L03L00D05L00D01L13LH·LOK25/04H·GAR01/05A·WIT05/05H·KOL11/05H·KOL15/05A·SIO19/05H·DIN23/05A·MER31/05H·SPA04/06A·LOK09/06
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.230.331.400.531.07
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.461.310.381.460.541.15
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.3%-------✓ Hit
Home win71.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (8)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
GAR wins
2
Draws
2
MT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gareji vs Merani Tbilisi · H/A from GAR
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/23AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR1-6
28/02/23HGAR Vs Merani Tbilisi0-0
12/11/22HGAR Vs Merani Tbilisi2-1
17/09/22AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR1-0
22/05/22AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR3-1
06/04/22HGAR Vs Merani Tbilisi1-1

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/06/23HGAR Vs Kolkheti Poti0-1
04/06/23AWIT Georgia Vs GAR0-3
31/05/23AKolkheti Khobi Vs GAR2-2
23/05/23HGAR Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi3-2
19/05/23ASpaeri Vs GAR2-3
15/05/23HGAR Vs Merani Martvili5-1
11/05/23ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs GAR0-2
05/05/23HGAR Vs Sioni2-0
01/05/23AMerani Tbilisi Vs GAR1-6
26/04/23AKolkheti Poti Vs GAR0-0

Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/06/23ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs MT5-2
04/06/23HMT Vs Spaeri0-3
31/05/23AMerani Martvili Vs MT0-0
23/05/23HMT Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II0-5
19/05/23ASioni Vs MT0-0
15/05/23HMT Vs Kolkheti Khobi0-5
11/05/23HMT Vs Kolkheti Poti1-1
05/05/23AWIT Georgia Vs MT5-1
01/05/23HMT Vs Gareji1-6
25/04/23HMT Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.67
HomeWWWWL1.92
AwayWWWDW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%54%44%
AVG goals2.862.832.88
Over 1.5 %82%83%80%
Over 2.5 %53%54%52%
Over 3.5 %35%33%36%
Scored1.732.001.48
Conceded1.120.831.40
BTTS43%54%32%
Clean Sheet41%42%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.06
HomeLDLLL1.48
AwayDLDDL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%44%8%
AVG goals3.143.163.12
Over 1.5 %80%84%75%
Over 2.5 %59%64%54%
Over 3.5 %41%40%42%
Scored1.121.320.92
Conceded2.021.842.21
BTTS53%48%58%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3677
64%
2.1
7028+42
2.7
81%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.8
-
2GarejiGareji3676
64%
2.1
8838+50
3.5
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3SpaeriSpaeri3666
56%
1.8
6848+20
3.2
75%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.3
-
4SioniSioni3659
50%
1.6
6846+22
3.2
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
5Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3652
44%
1.4
7158+13
3.6
86%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
6WIT GeorgiaWIT Georgia3648
36%
1.3
5257-5
3.0
81%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
7Kolkheti KhobiKolkheti Khobi3646
33%
1.3
4452-8
2.7
81%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3640
33%
1.1
5558-3
3.1
86%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
9Merani MartviliMerani Martvili3626
17%
0.7
3484-50
3.3
75%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
-
10Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi3614
3%
0.4
29110-81
3.9
92%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.1
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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