Gareji are tipped to win, a 54% chance that the home side will come out on top, a 27% chance of a draw and a 20% chance that Sioni will triumph. The match is expected to see about 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two goals, a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.7% chance. In recent form Gareji are on a two-game winning run, having beaten Merani Martvili 2-1, while Sioni also enjoy a two-game winning streak, having edged Telavi 2-1. At home Gareji average 2.08 goals scored and concede 0.67 against similar opposition, whereas Sioni away average 1.09 scored and 1.82 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 74.8% probability and Under 3.5 with a 73.1% probability. These picks reflect the expected flow of the match.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Gareji on a two-game winning run, while Sioni also enjoy a similar streak, yet the home side’s recent 2-0 victory over Merani Martvili hinted at a strong finish. The model’s favourite, a Home win, came through with a 2-0 result, confirming the predicted outcome. The pre-match probability for a home win was 54%, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested picks were Over 1.5 with a 74.8% probability, which hit, and Under 3.5 at 73.1%, also a hit. All selections settled as predicted, with the final score matching the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gareji win✓ Hit
53.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.03
2.21
0.57
1.38
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.74
1.07
2.08
0.67
1.47
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.33
1.27
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.61
1.67
1.42
1.09
1.82
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.67
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
11.1%
2-0 ✓
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.4%
3-0
5.7%
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.4%
Gareji goals ↓
Sioni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
5.7%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.7%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.7%
5.4%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kolkheti Poti
2.14
Gareji
2.11
Spaeri
1.83
Sioni
1.64
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.28
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.11
Merani Martvili
0.72
Merani Tbilisi
0.39
Gareji is 0.47 points better than Sioni in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Gareji
2.44
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.97
Kolkheti Poti
1.94
Sioni
1.89
Spaeri
1.89
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.53
WIT Georgia
1.44
Kolkheti Khobi
1.22
Merani Martvili
0.94
Merani Tbilisi
0.81
Gareji is 0.56 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 1.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kolkheti Poti
0.78
Gareji
1.06
Sioni
1.28
Spaeri
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.58
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.61
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.61
Merani Martvili
2.33
Merani Tbilisi
3.06
Gareji is 0.22 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.33
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.37
0.67
0.33
0.53
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.39
1.00
0.33
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
0.14
0.29
0.00
0.33
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.64
0.29
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.15
0.70
1.42
0.33
0.93
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.53
0.93
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
1.22
0.67
1.08
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.43
0.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kolkheti Poti
Spaeri
Dinamo Tbilisi II
WIT Georgia
Kolkheti Khobi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Merani Martvili
Merani Tbilisi