Gareji are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of Sioni taking the win. The model expects 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance. Gareji, playing at home against a similar-strength side, normally score 2.0 goals and concede 0.93, while Sioni, on the road, averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.8% probability. The final score of the previous match was 3-0, a home win, and both teams are on a two-game winning run, having each beaten their last opponents 2-1. The probabilities are: 53% home win, 26% draw, 21% away win. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5, at 77.8%.
Results analysis
Gareji continued their 2-game winning streak, extending the run with a decisive 3-0 victory over Sioni. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win at 53 percent, and it proved correct, as the final result matched the predicted outcome. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.8 percent probability, and it hit, with three goals scored. The match’s most likely scoreline, 2-1, fell short of the actual 3-0 result, but the overall predictions held true. The model’s confidence in a home triumph was justified, and the single market selection performed as expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gareji win✓ Hit
53.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni win✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.33
2.07
0.93
1.67
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.86
1.25
2.00
0.93
1.71
1.57
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.13
3.00
0.93
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.86
1.03
2.64
0.71
1.13
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
4.00
8.00
4.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.7%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
7.3%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
3-0 ✓
5.6%
Gareji goals ↓
Sioni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
5.2%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.7%
12%
5.7%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.8%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.6%
5.7%
3.0%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saburtalo II
2.00
Gareji
1.86
Rustavi
1.81
Sioni
1.69
Merani Martvili
1.50
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.42
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.42
Spaeri
1.42
Aragvi Dusheti
1.32
Shturmi
1.26
WIT Georgia
1.14
Kolkheti Khobi
0.56
Gareji is 0.17 points better than Sioni in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Gareji
2.14
Sioni
1.83
Rustavi
1.72
Saburtalo II
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.42
Aragvi Dusheti
1.39
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.39
Spaeri
1.39
WIT Georgia
1.36
Shturmi
1.13
Kolkheti Khobi
0.83
Merani Martvili
0.50
Gareji is 0.31 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Merani Martvili
0.50
Saburtalo II
1.00
Rustavi
1.14
Sioni
1.17
Gareji
1.22
Spaeri
1.31
Shturmi
1.32
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.36
Aragvi Dusheti
1.39
WIT Georgia
1.64
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.72
Kolkheti Khobi
2.36
Gareji is 0.06 goals worse than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.13
0.47
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.46
1.07
0.43
0.79
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.33
1.27
0.27
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.34
1.21
0.29
0.53
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.47
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.79
0.93
0.50
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.73
0.67
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.69
1.43
0.43
0.60
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
4.00
6.00
4.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →