PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Gareji vs Sioni Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 3-0
Gareji
Gareji
Vs
53%
26%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sioni
Sioni
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Gareji are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of Sioni taking the win. The model expects 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance. Gareji, playing at home against a similar-strength side, normally score 2.0 goals and concede 0.93, while Sioni, on the road, averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.8% probability. The final score of the previous match was 3-0, a home win, and both teams are on a two-game winning run, having each beaten their last opponents 2-1. The probabilities are: 53% home win, 26% draw, 21% away win. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5, at 77.8%.

Results analysis

Gareji continued their 2-game winning streak, extending the run with a decisive 3-0 victory over Sioni. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win at 53 percent, and it proved correct, as the final result matched the predicted outcome. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.8 percent probability, and it hit, with three goals scored. The match’s most likely scoreline, 2-1, fell short of the actual 3-0 result, but the overall predictions held true. The model’s confidence in a home triumph was justified, and the single market selection performed as expected.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gareji win✓ Hit
53.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni win✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GarejiGareji

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W02L01L00D10W20W51W21W30W11DH·SHT24/05A·SIO28/05H·RUS01/06A·KOL31/07H·LOK05/08H·ARA10/08H·SPA17/08A·WIT23/08H·DIN27/08A·SHT01/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.332.070.931.671.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.861.252.000.931.711.57
vs Weaker (2)2.002.503.001.001.004.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SioniSioni

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W20W01L23L12L10W21W10W00D20WA·LOK24/05H·GAR28/05A·SPA01/06H·WIT31/07A·DIN05/08A·SHT10/08A·ARA17/08H·RUS23/08A·KOL27/08H·LOK01/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.133.000.931.131.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.861.032.640.711.131.33
vs Weaker (1)8.004.008.004.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.7%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
7.3%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
3-0 ✓
5.6%
Gareji goals ↓
Sioni goals →
01234
07.3%5.2%3.3%1.1%0.3%
19.7%12%5.7%2.0%0.5%
29.5%9.8%5.0%1.7%0.4%
35.6%5.7%3.0%1.0%0.3%
42.4%2.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saburtalo II
2.00
Gareji
1.86
Rustavi
1.81
Sioni
1.69
Merani Martvili
1.50
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.42
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.42
Spaeri
1.42
Aragvi Dusheti
1.32
Shturmi
1.26
WIT Georgia
1.14
Kolkheti Khobi
0.56
Gareji is 0.17 points better than Sioni in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.69).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Gareji
2.14
Sioni
1.83
Rustavi
1.72
Saburtalo II
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.42
Aragvi Dusheti
1.39
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.39
Spaeri
1.39
WIT Georgia
1.36
Shturmi
1.13
Kolkheti Khobi
0.83
Merani Martvili
0.50
Gareji is 0.31 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Merani Martvili
0.50
Saburtalo II
1.00
Rustavi
1.14
Sioni
1.17
Gareji
1.22
Spaeri
1.31
Shturmi
1.32
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.36
Aragvi Dusheti
1.39
WIT Georgia
1.64
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.72
Kolkheti Khobi
2.36
Gareji is 0.06 goals worse than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L01L00D10W00D40W10W20W11DH·SHT24/05A·SIO28/05H·RUS01/06A·KOL31/07H·LOK05/08H·ARA10/08H·SPA17/08A·WIT23/08H·DIN27/08A·SHT01/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.601.130.470.730.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.930.461.070.430.790.50
vs Weaker (2)1.002.502.001.000.004.00
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SioniSioni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W00D10W10W10W11D10W00D10WA·LOK24/05H·GAR28/05A·SPA01/06H·WIT31/07A·DIN05/08A·SHT10/08A·ARA17/08H·RUS23/08A·KOL27/08H·LOK01/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.331.270.270.530.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.860.341.210.290.530.40
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GarejiGareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L00D00D00D20W11D11D10W00DH·SHT24/05A·SIO28/05H·RUS01/06A·KOL31/07H·LOK05/08H·ARA10/08H·SPA17/08A·WIT23/08H·DIN27/08A·SHT01/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.730.930.470.931.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.930.790.930.500.931.07
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SioniSioni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W10W01L13L02L00D10W00D00D10WA·LOK24/05H·GAR28/05A·SPA01/06H·WIT31/07A·DIN05/08A·SHT10/08A·ARA17/08H·RUS23/08A·KOL27/08H·LOK01/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.801.730.670.600.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.000.691.430.430.600.93
vs Weaker (1)6.004.006.004.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (22)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (10)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
GAR wins
1
Draws
3
SIO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gareji vs Sioni · H/A from GAR
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/24ASioni Vs GAR2-0
13/04/24HGAR Vs Sioni3-4
06/10/23HGAR Vs Sioni1-1
08/08/23ASioni Vs GAR2-0
05/05/23HGAR Vs Sioni2-0
05/03/23ASioni Vs GAR0-1

GarejiGareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/24AShturmi Vs GAR1-1
27/08/24HGAR Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II3-0
23/08/24AWIT Georgia Vs GAR1-2
17/08/24HGAR Vs Spaeri5-1
10/08/24HGAR Vs Aragvi Dusheti2-0
05/08/24HGAR Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi1-0
31/07/24AKolkheti Khobi Vs GAR0-0
01/06/24HGAR Vs Rustavi0-1
28/05/24ASioni Vs GAR2-0
24/05/24HGAR Vs Shturmi4-1

SioniSioni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/24HSIO Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi2-0
27/08/24AKolkheti Khobi Vs SIO0-0
23/08/24HSIO Vs Rustavi1-0
17/08/24AAragvi Dusheti Vs SIO1-2
10/08/24AShturmi Vs SIO0-1
05/08/24ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs SIO2-1
31/07/24HSIO Vs WIT Georgia2-3
01/06/24ASpaeri Vs SIO1-0
28/05/24HSIO Vs Gareji2-0
24/05/24ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs SIO2-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gareji
Gareji
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.84
HomeLWWWW2.00
AwayDLDWD1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%60%48%
AVG goals3.543.763.32
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %44%48%40%
Scored2.202.561.84
Conceded1.341.201.48
BTTS68%68%68%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Sioni
Sioni
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.70
HomeWWLWW2.08
AwayLLWWD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%64%40%
AVG goals2.963.242.68
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.822.321.32
Conceded1.140.921.36
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GarejiGareji3667
53%
1.9
7744+33
3.4
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
2RustaviRustavi3665
56%
1.8
6241+21
2.9
72%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.1
-
3SioniSioni3661
53%
1.7
6642+24
3.0
72%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
4SpaeriSpaeri3651
39%
1.4
5047+3
2.7
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
5Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3651
36%
1.4
5049+1
2.8
78%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
6Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3651
42%
1.4
5162-11
3.1
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti3850
37%
1.3
5353+0
2.8
76%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
8ShturmiShturmi3848
34%
1.3
4350-7
2.4
66%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
9WIT GeorgiaWIT Georgia3641
31%
1.1
4959-10
3.0
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10Kolkheti KhobiKolkheti Khobi3620
11%
0.6
3085-55
3.2
72%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.4
-
11Saburtalo IISaburtalo II24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
12Merani MartviliMerani Martvili23
50%
1.5
11+0
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches