The contest between Garliava and FA Šiauliai II is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win at 36%. Home and away win percentages stand at 34% and 36% respectively, while a draw sits at 30%. The expected total of 2.4 goals translates to an average of 2.0 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance.
Garliava, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. FA Šiauliai II, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 77.8% probability and Over 1.5 with 70.5%. Both picks are marked as hits. The recent form narrative shows Garliava struggling after five straight losses, while FA Šiauliai II is recovering from a defeat. The match remains uncertain, but the model’s pick points to an away victory.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Garliava overturned the model’s favourite, winning 3-0 after five straight defeats. The pre-match pick was an away win at 36%, but the outcome proved the model wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit at 77.8%, and Over 1.5 goals hit at 70.5%. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 with a 14.4% chance, yet the match produced a 3-0 result. Garliava’s home form has been bleak, yet they broke the streak with a decisive victory, while FA Šiauliai II, despite a strong away scoring average, could not capitalize on the predicted advantage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Garliava win✓ Hit
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Garliava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.07
1.43
1.50
1.62
vs Stronger (27)
1.19
1.48
1.08
1.46
1.29
1.50
vs Similar (3)
2.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.77
0.94
1.56
0.86
2.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
1.83
1.20
1.70
0.38
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.75
0.60
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.4%
0-1
9.8%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
Garliava goals ↓
FA Šiauliai II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.8%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
1
9.4%
14%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.7%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Garliava goals (down), columns = FA Šiauliai II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Garliava is 0.23 points better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Garliava is 0.13 goals worse than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Garliava is 0.97 goals better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Garliava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.64
0.43
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (27)
0.59
0.56
0.69
0.38
0.50
0.71
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.87
0.38
0.75
0.07
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.70
0.12
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.12
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Garliava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.43
1.00
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (27)
0.59
0.93
0.38
1.08
0.79
0.79
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.56
0.81
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
1.00
0.70
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.75
0.40
0.40
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
Garliava and FA Šiauliai II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and FA Šiauliai II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Garliava and FA Šiauliai II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Garliava and FA Šiauliai II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
TransINVEST Vilnius
Be1 NFA
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Nevėžis
Minija
Trakai II
Ekranas
BFA
Šilas
Kauno Žalgiris II
Panevėžys II
Žalgiris II
Jonava