Gateshead are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win at 58%. The match is expected to be high-scoring, averaging 3.0 goals, and the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1% probability, signalling a tight contest. Gateshead’s home form shows they average 3.12 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against similar-strength opponents, while Forest Green’s away record is 1.88 scored and 0.88 conceded. The model’s selections are: Over 1.5 goals at 81.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.4%, and Under 5.5 cards at 73.5%. Home win stands at 58%, draw 23%, and away win 18%. This preview highlights a favourable home advantage for Gateshead, a likely 1-1 draw, and strong over-goal and card picks for the match.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Forest Green snatched a 2-0 away victory, overturning the pre-match favourite Gateshead. The model had called a home win with a 58% probability, but that pick missed. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 1.5 goals came through at 81.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.4%, and Under 5.5 cards at 73.5%. Gateshead’s recent form, a 3-straight defeat run, and Forest Green’s similar slump, both ended with 1-2 losses, set the stage for the unexpected result. The prediction model’s favourite was wrong, but its other picks proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gateshead win✗ Miss
58.1%
Avg Implied 41.4% · @ 2.23
Edge
+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.59
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forest Green win✓ Hit
18.4%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.81
Edge
-14.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gateshead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.50
2.43
0.86
1.31
2.06
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.75
1.80
0.60
0.71
2.57
vs Similar (17)
2.41
1.35
3.12
1.00
1.78
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forest Green
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
0.92
1.31
1.35
1.35
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.64
0.67
1.67
0.62
1.62
vs Similar (14)
1.50
0.93
1.00
1.00
1.88
0.88
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.2%
@ 1.67+2.1%
Under 2.5
41.8%
@ 2.13-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 3.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
1-2
5.2%
Gateshead goals ↓
Forest Green goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
4.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.6%
11%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.3%
6.6%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.1%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gateshead goals (down), columns = Forest Green goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Gateshead is 0.35 points worse than Forest Green in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Gateshead is 0.15 goals better than Forest Green in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Gateshead is 0.57 goals worse than Forest Green in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Gateshead is 10.0 percentage points better than Forest Green in terms of average possession (60% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gateshead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.60
0.40
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.53
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forest Green
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.46
0.54
0.82
0.65
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.79
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.36
0.67
0.50
1.12
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gateshead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
1.50
0.43
0.62
1.25
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.92
1.20
0.20
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
1.29
0.82
1.88
0.50
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forest Green) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forest Green
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.46
0.77
0.53
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.12
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
0.33
0.50
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forest Green over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Gateshead and Forest Green have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Forest Green have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Forest Green have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barnet
York
Rochdale
Oldham
Halifax
Southend
Altrincham
Tamworth
Hartlepool
Sutton
Eastleigh
Solihull
Woking
Aldershot
Braintree Town
Yeovil
Boston Utd
Wealdstone