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Gateshead vs Southend Result & Analysis

Date: 05/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-0
Gateshead
Gateshead
Vs
34%
28%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Referee: M Woods

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gateshead win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 2.97
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.58
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.15
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GatesheadGateshead

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L02L13L02L13L21W32W13L23L12LA·ALD08/03H·MAI15/03H·BRA18/03H·TAM22/03A·BAR29/03H·DAG05/04A·FOR12/04H·YOR18/04A·HAR21/04A·BOS26/04
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.631.471.731.801.53
vs Stronger (6)1.501.671.001.332.002.00
vs Similar (22)1.681.551.551.821.821.27
vs Weaker (2)1.502.502.002.001.003.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W22D21W03L10W11D01L00D40W30WH·ALT08/03A·FOR15/03A·EAS22/03A·BOS25/03H·OLD29/03A·SUT05/04H·SOL12/04H·BRA18/04A·EBB21/04H·WEA26/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.071.561.001.211.14
vs Stronger (5)1.401.401.672.001.000.50
vs Similar (24)1.381.001.500.751.251.25
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.7%
@ 1.55-9.4%
Under 2.5
49.3%
@ 2.34+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
0-0 ✓
7.9%
1-0
7.5%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
5.7%
Gateshead goals ↓
Southend goals →
01234
07.9%8.1%6.5%3.0%1.1%
17.5%13%8.5%4.0%1.4%
25.7%8.0%5.6%2.6%0.9%
32.5%3.5%2.4%1.1%0.4%
40.8%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gateshead goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Gateshead is 0.02 points worse than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Gateshead is 0.37 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Gateshead is 0.43 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.04).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Gateshead is 6.9 percentage points better than Southend in terms of average possession (60% vs 53%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GatesheadGateshead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W00D02L20W20W11D02L12LA·ALD08/03H·MAI15/03H·BRA18/03H·TAM22/03A·BAR29/03H·DAG05/04A·FOR12/04H·YOR18/04A·HAR21/04A·BOS26/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.670.930.600.870.73
vs Stronger (6)0.830.671.000.330.671.00
vs Similar (22)0.860.640.820.640.910.64
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L20W00D10W10W01L00D10W10WH·ALT08/03A·FOR15/03A·EAS22/03A·BOS25/03H·OLD29/03A·SUT05/04H·SOL12/04H·BRA18/04A·EBB21/04H·WEA26/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.560.500.640.50
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.671.330.500.00
vs Similar (24)0.620.460.580.330.670.58
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GatesheadGateshead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L03L02L11D01L12L02L21W00DA·ALD08/03H·MAI15/03H·BRA18/03H·TAM22/03A·BAR29/03H·DAG05/04A·FOR12/04H·YOR18/04A·HAR21/04A·BOS26/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.531.130.930.80
vs Stronger (6)0.671.000.001.001.331.00
vs Similar (22)0.820.910.731.180.910.64
vs Weaker (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W01L03L00D01L00D00D30W20WH·ALT08/03A·FOR15/03A·EAS22/03A·BOS25/03H·OLD29/03A·SUT05/04H·SOL12/04H·BRA18/04A·EBB21/04H·WEA26/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.571.000.500.570.64
vs Stronger (5)0.800.601.000.670.500.50
vs Similar (24)0.750.540.920.420.580.67
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards81.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.576.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards73.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
GAT wins
1
Draws
1
SOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gateshead vs Southend · H/A from GAT
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24ASouthend Vs GAT1-3
03/02/24ASouthend Vs GAT0-1
25/11/23HGAT Vs Southend1-1
18/02/23ASouthend Vs GAT1-0
19/11/22HGAT Vs Southend3-1

GatesheadGateshead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25ABoston Utd Vs GAT2-1
21/04/25AHartlepool Vs GAT3-2
18/04/25HGAT Vs York1-3
12/04/25AForest Green Vs GAT2-3
05/04/25HGAT Vs Dag and Red2-1
29/03/25ABarnet Vs GAT3-1
22/03/25HGAT Vs Tamworth0-2
18/03/25HGAT Vs Braintree Town1-3
15/03/25HGAT Vs Maidenhead0-2
08/03/25AAldershot Vs GAT3-1

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25HSOU Vs Wealdstone3-0
21/04/25AEbbsfleet Vs SOU0-4
18/04/25HSOU Vs Braintree Town0-0
12/04/25HSOU Vs Solihull0-1
05/04/25ASutton Vs SOU1-1
29/03/25HSOU Vs Oldham1-0
25/03/25ABoston Utd Vs SOU3-0
22/03/25AEastleigh Vs SOU1-2
15/03/25AForest Green Vs SOU2-2
08/03/25HSOU Vs Altrincham2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gateshead
Gateshead
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.46
HomeLLLWL1.62
AwayLLWLL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%33%
AVG goals3.143.043.25
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %44%38%50%
Scored1.641.621.67
Conceded1.501.421.58
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet20%19%21%
Corners---
Cards3.883.883.87
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.54
HomeWWLDW1.52
AwayDWLDW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals2.442.642.24
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %24%32%16%
Scored1.361.481.24
Conceded1.081.161.00
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet38%36%40%
Corners---
Cards3.503.713.29

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarnetBarnet46102
67%
2.2
9738+59
2.9
78%
61%
35%
-
0%
4.0
61%
-
0%
4
0132.10.8
62%
2YorkYork4696
63%
2.1
9542+53
3.0
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
1
0012.10.9
63%
3Forest GreenForest Green4683
48%
1.8
6942+27
2.4
76%
43%
20%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
50%
4RochdaleRochdale4674
46%
1.6
6944+25
2.5
67%
48%
26%
-
0%
2.8
30%
-
0%
2
1111.51.0
55%
5OldhamOldham4673
41%
1.6
6448+16
2.4
74%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
51%
6HalifaxHalifax4670
41%
1.5
5046+4
2.1
59%
35%
17%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
49%
7SouthendSouthend4668
37%
1.5
5948+11
2.3
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
46%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
53%
8GatesheadGateshead4667
41%
1.5
7668+8
3.1
80%
57%
46%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
60%
9AltrinchamAltrincham4664
37%
1.4
6862+6
2.8
78%
63%
26%
-
0%
4.3
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
51%
10TamworthTamworth4664
37%
1.4
6572-7
3.0
87%
54%
30%
-
0%
4.8
65%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
40%
11HartlepoolHartlepool4660
30%
1.3
5962-3
2.6
70%
41%
24%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
45%
12SuttonSutton4660
33%
1.3
5964-5
2.7
74%
52%
24%
-
0%
4.6
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
49%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
30%
1.3
5861-3
2.6
78%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
46%
14SolihullSolihull4658
35%
1.3
6167-6
2.8
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
50%
15WokingWoking4658
28%
1.3
5259-7
2.4
74%
46%
24%
-
0%
4.5
70%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
50%
16AldershotAldershot4657
30%
1.2
6983-14
3.3
85%
63%
43%
-
0%
4.3
63%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
51%
17Braintree TownBraintree Town4656
33%
1.2
5159-8
2.4
63%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
45%
18YeovilYeovil4656
33%
1.2
5160-9
2.4
65%
50%
24%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
49%
19Boston UtdBoston Utd4655
33%
1.2
5467-13
2.6
76%
59%
28%
-
0%
4.1
54%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
20WealdstoneWealdstone4653
28%
1.2
5676-20
2.9
80%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
61%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
49%
21
DA
Dag and Red
4652
26%
1.1
6162-1
2.7
76%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
22
M
Maidenhead
4652
30%
1.1
5775-18
2.9
76%
50%
39%
-
0%
3.3
43%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
41%
23
F
Fylde
4640
24%
0.9
5085-35
2.9
83%
57%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
46%
24
E
Ebbsfleet
4622
7%
0.5
3898-60
3.0
76%
54%
43%
-
0%
3.8
52%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
44%
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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