The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% probability. Gateshead is favoured to win, with a 46% chance of a home victory, 25% for a draw and 30% for a Tamworth win. Gateshead’s home form shows 1.15 goals scored and 1.62 conceded against similar opposition, while Tamworth’s away form reveals 1.07 goals scored and 2.29 conceded at home. Recent results hint at a dip: Gateshead lost two straight games, 0-1 to Sutton, and Tamworth also suffered two defeats, 1-4 to Halifax. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.3%), Under 5.5 (89.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.1%), Home +2 handicap (86.2%), Over 1.5 (84.3%) and Under 5.5 cards (84.0%). These picks reflect the expected moderate scoring and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gateshead win
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tamworth win
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gateshead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.60
1.20
1.53
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.67
1.15
1.62
0.91
1.73
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamworth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.77
1.79
1.07
1.25
2.38
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
2.33
2.00
2.00
3.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.41
1.70
1.75
0.92
1.13
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.7%
No
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
1-0
5.8%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
4.6%
Gateshead goals ↓
Tamworth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.4%
3.9%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.8%
11%
7.2%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.8%
5.6%
4.1%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.6%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gateshead goals (down), columns = Tamworth goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Gateshead is 0.26 points worse than Tamworth in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Gateshead is 0.20 goals worse than Tamworth in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Gateshead is 0.41 goals worse than Tamworth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.96 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Gateshead is 12.1 percentage points better than Tamworth in terms of average possession (50% vs 38%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gateshead or Draw
70.2%
Avg Implied -
46%
25%
30%
covers Gateshead + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gateshead or Tamworth
75.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
25%
30%
covers Gateshead + Tamworth
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tamworth
54.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
25%
30%
covers Draw + Tamworth
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gateshead over/under 0.5
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 3.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 0.5
Over
76.9%
Under
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 1.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gateshead, so a minus line means Gateshead give that many goals of a start and Tamworth receive them. At -1, Gateshead must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gateshead win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gateshead)
Gateshead -2
11.5%
Draw -2
14.1%
Tamworth +2
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gateshead)
Gateshead -1
25.6%
Draw -1
20.0%
Tamworth +1
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gateshead)
Gateshead +1
70.2%
Draw +1
15.7%
Tamworth -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gateshead)
Gateshead +2
85.9%
Draw +2
8.9%
Tamworth -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gateshead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.47
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.71
0.46
0.69
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamworth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.50
0.43
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.81
0.42
0.33
0.73
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gateshead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.96
0.69
0.92
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamworth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
1.29
0.64
0.50
1.19
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.89
1.33
0.58
0.40
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Gateshead and Tamworth have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Tamworth have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Gateshead and Tamworth have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →