PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in the Turkey: Süper Lig is finely balanced, with Gaziantep FK's recent form a major storyline. The home side has suffered five consecutive defeats, including a 1-2 loss to Başkşehir, while Alanyaspor is coming off a defeat to Fatih Karagümrük.
The model predicts a home win, with a 38% probability, while the away win is 33% likely and a draw 29% likely. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14% probability.
Gaziantep FK's home form is decent, with an average of 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opponents. Alanyaspor's away form is less impressive, with an average of 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded.
The model's selection is the home win, with the following additional selections: Over 21.5 fouls (88.1%), Over 3.5 cards (78.2%), Under 3.5 (74.9%), with a 5% edge, and Over 1.5 (73.3%). The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
In a stunning upset, Gaziantep FK's home win streak came to an end as they drew 1-1 with Alanyaspor. This result extends Alanyaspor's recent run of draws, having come off a 1-1 draw against Gaziantep FK in their previous meeting. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 37% probability. In contrast, the model's selection of Over 21.5 fouls was correct, with a probability of 87.8%. Other selections that hit included Over 3.5 cards, Over 1.5, and Under 3.5, with probabilities of 77.5%, 75.2%, and 72.8% respectively.
Gaziantep FK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.14 | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 2.44 | 0.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.57 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 0.90 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Alanyaspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.23 | 1.53 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.11 | 1.89 | 1.25 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.57 | 0.95 | 1.64 | 1.09 | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Alanyaspor goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 14% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Gaziantep FKAlanyasporGaziantep FK| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 29.3 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 10.5 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 28.6 | 26.9 | 30.3 |
| vs Similar (35) | 9.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 48% | 57% | 39% | 74% | 79% | 69% | 91% | 86% | 96% |
| % under line | 52% | 43% | 61% | 26% | 21% | 31% | 9% | 14% | 4% |
Alanyaspor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.0 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 26.6 | 25.9 | 27.3 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 7.7 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25.1 |
| vs Similar (34) | 8.1 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 27.1 | 26.1 | 28.3 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 32% | 32% | 32% | 56% | 46% | 65% | 82% | 77% | 86% |
| % under line | 68% | 68% | 68% | 44% | 54% | 35% | 18% | 23% | 14% |
Gaziantep FK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.33 | 1.22 | 0.25 | 1.75 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.48 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Alanyaspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.29 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Gaziantep FK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.44 | 1.22 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Alanyaspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 89.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 87.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.7% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | +4.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 | +3.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.8% | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.29 | -0.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/11/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 09/05/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/12/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/04/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 11/11/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 23/04/23 | H | 0-3 | |
| 29/10/22 | A | 2-0 |
Gaziantep FK| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
Alanyaspor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.0 | 0% | 2.3 | 33% | 19.0 | 33% | 345 | 173 | 72 | 100 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 62% |
| 2 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 23.3 | 67% | 15 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 43% |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.3 | 33% | 1.7 | 0% | 21.7 | 33% | 332 | 162 | 62 | 108 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 59% |
| 4 |  Kocaelispor | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | 8.3 | 67% | 3.7 | 67% | 27.0 | 100% | 24 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 5 |  Rizespor | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 9.0 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 24.7 | 100% | 44 | 12 | 7 | 25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 6 |  Kasımpaşa | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.3 | 67% | 25.0 | 100% | 31 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 44% |
| 7 |  Başakşehir | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | 8.0 | 33% | 5.0 | 100% | 27.7 | 100% | 77 | 40 | 10 | 28 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 8 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 50% | 28.5 | 100% | 168 | 67 | 38 | 63 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 9 |  Samsunspor | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 33% | 33% | 10.0 | 67% | 2.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 50 | 20 | 12 | 18 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 7.0 | 33% | 5.0 | 100% | 33.7 | 100% | 38 | 9 | 18 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 | Gaziantep FK | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.7 | 33% | 31.7 | 100% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 12 |  Amed | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 1.5 | 0% | 23.5 | 100% | 27 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 |  Beşiktaş | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 100% | 31.0 | 100% | 202 | 70 | 50 | 82 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 56% |
| 14 |  Eyüpspor | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 6.3 | 33% | 4.0 | 67% | 35.0 | 100% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 15 |  Çorum FK | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 50% | 21.0 | 50% | 47 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 |  Göztepe | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 10.7 | 67% | 4.0 | 67% | 21.7 | 33% | 61 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 38% |
| 17 |  Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 6.3 | 0% | 2.7 | 33% | 23.7 | 100% | 26 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0.3 | 2.7 | - |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.0 | 0% | 4.3 | 67% | 22.7 | 67% | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 52% |