GIL Vicente are favoured to win, with a 52 % chance of a home victory, 29 % for a draw and 20 % for Casa Pia to lift the trophy. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, with a 13.6 % chance.
GIL Vicente have been productive at home, scoring 1.77 goals per game and conceding only 0.85 against teams of similar strength. Casa Pia, on the road, have struggled, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 against comparable opponents.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7 %), Under 5.5 (96.8 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 goals (95.6 % with a 3 % edge) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.6 % with a 3 % edge).
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate, with GIL Vicente securing a 2-0 victory over Casa Pia, extending their two-game winning run. The model had named a home win as the favourite, assigning it a 51 % probability, and this call was correct. The final score matched the most likely 2-0 outcome, and the total goals fell well below the expected 2.3. Every suggested pick also hit: Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7 %), Under 5.5 (96.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.6 %), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.6 %). The model’s selections performed consistently, confirming its reliability for this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
GIL Vicente win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.71
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Dafabet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.49
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.64
Pinnacle
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Casa Pia win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.29
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.70
Unibet
5.60
Pinnacle
5.52
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
GIL Vicente
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.67
1.00
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
1.33
1.33
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.08
1.75
0.92
1.33
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Casa Pia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.50
1.00
1.53
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.89
0.60
2.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.33
1.20
1.30
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (GIL Vicente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.42+2.5%
Under 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.73-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
BetVictor
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
@ 2.31-0.3%
Under 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.60+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.35
SBO
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
@ 4.34-1.4%
Under 3.5
79.8%
@ 1.19+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.61
BetVictor
4.50
Superbet
4.40
888Sport
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.7%
@ 2.14+1.3%
No
55.3%
@ 1.64-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
No
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.5%@ 4.99+4.6%
1-1
13.4%@ 6.39+6.5%
0-0
11.2%@ 7.31+5.1%
2-0 ✓
10.9%@ 6.67+4.2%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.96+3.4%
0-1
7.0%@ 10.49+2.8%
3-0
5.3%@ 12.39+1.8%
1-2
5.1%@ 15.93+2.3%
GIL Vicente goals ↓
Casa Pia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.0%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.0%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.3%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GIL Vicente goals (down), columns = Casa Pia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
GIL Vicente is 0.53 points better than Casa Pia in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
GIL Vicente is 0.47 goals better than Casa Pia in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
GIL Vicente is 0.47 goals better than Casa Pia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
GIL Vicente is 8.6 percentage points better than Casa Pia in terms of average possession (50% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
GIL Vicente
For 5.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Casa Pia
For 4.7 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 13.2 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
GIL Vicente
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.0
10.2
4.6
4.6
4.6
27.9
28.4
27.4
vs Stronger (12)
9.8
9.4
10.2
4.5
4.8
4.2
26.3
27.6
25.0
vs Similar (37)
8.9
7.6
10.4
4.6
4.6
4.6
28.2
28.6
27.7
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
6.0
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
43%
33%
52%
64%
64%
64%
85%
100%
70%
% under line
57%
67%
48%
36%
36%
36%
15%
0%
30%
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Casa Pia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.4
5.1
5.0
5.3
29.5
29.8
29.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.5
8.7
10.6
4.1
3.8
4.6
27.4
28.6
25.9
vs Similar (34)
9.9
9.4
10.3
5.6
5.7
5.5
30.6
30.6
30.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
39%
50%
76%
79%
73%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
55%
61%
50%
24%
21%
27%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (GIL Vicente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rio Ave
10.4
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Academico Viseu
9.9
Sporting CP
9.9
Casa Pia
9.7
Arouca
9.2
GIL Vicente
9.1
FC Porto
9.0
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.8
Guimaraes
8.6
Maritimo
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.8
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.4
FC Porto
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Sporting CP
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Rio Ave
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.2
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Nacional
27.1
Rio Ave
27.0
Estoril
26.8
Sporting CP
26.6
Arouca
26.0
FC Porto
25.9
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
25.1
SC Braga
24.3
Maritimo
24.1
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.85-4.5%
Under 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.87+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
73.7%
@ 1.32+6.0%
Under 3.5
26.3%
@ 2.77-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.32
Under
Superbet
2.77
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.3%
Under 21.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
GIL Vicente or Draw✓ Hit
82.7%
Avg Implied 81.9% · @ 1.15
Edge
+0.8%
51%
29%
20%
covers GIL Vicente + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
GIL Vicente or Casa Pia✓ Hit
72.3%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.3%
51%
29%
20%
covers GIL Vicente + Casa Pia
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Draw or Casa Pia✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied 44.6% · @ 2.10
Edge
+0.5%
51%
29%
20%
covers Draw + Casa Pia
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.16
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
GIL Vicente over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.1%
@ 1.21+1.6%
Under
20.9%
@ 4.14-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.54
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
GIL Vicente over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.3%
@ 2.03+0.1%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.74-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
888Sport
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
GIL Vicente over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.7%
@ 4.27-1.1%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.19+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.56
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.40
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
GIL Vicente over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 9.59-2.4%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
11.00
1xBet
9.90
Superbet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.10
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Casa Pia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
54.0%
@ 1.76+1.2%
Under
46.0%
@ 1.97-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Betano
1.98
Casa Pia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 4.84-1.0%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.15+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Casa Pia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 13.64-2.6%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Under
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Casa Pia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 50.50-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to GIL Vicente, so a minus line means GIL Vicente give that many goals of a start and Casa Pia receive them. At -1, GIL Vicente must win by two or more to land; a one-goal GIL Vicente win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (GIL Vicente)Actual: Draw
GIL Vicente -2
12.5%
@ 6.36-1.6%
Draw -2
17.3%
@ 4.77-1.4%
Casa Pia +2
70.2%
@ 1.33+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Handicap -1 (GIL Vicente)Actual: GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente -1
29.8%
@ 2.99-0.1%
Draw -1
25.1%
@ 3.24-2.5%
Casa Pia +1
45.1%
@ 2.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Superbet
2.95
Draw
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Away
Bet365
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Handicap +1 (GIL Vicente)Actual: GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente +1
82.7%
@ 1.14+4.7%
Draw +1
11.9%
@ 6.07-2.8%
Casa Pia -1
5.5%
@ 12.20-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Handicap +2 (GIL Vicente)Actual: GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente +2
94.5%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Draw +2
4.3%
@ 17.00-1.3%
Casa Pia -2
1.2%
@ 51.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
17.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
GIL Vicente
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.67
0.47
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.42
0.83
0.33
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Casa Pia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.78
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.43
0.70
0.40
0.27
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (GIL Vicente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.5%
@ 1.48+5.5%
Under 0.5
31.5%
@ 2.52-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Under
William Hil
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.59
SBO
2.56
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 3.28+3.2%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.30-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.7%
@ 8.60-0.1%
Under 2.5
89.3%
@ 1.05+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
10Bet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GIL Vicente over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.9%
@ 1.86+6.9%
Under
43.1%
@ 1.86-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
GIL Vicente over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
19.1%
@ 5.24+1.4%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.12-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
GIL Vicente over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 13.50-2.6%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.5%
@ 3.18+3.3%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.31-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.40
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Unibet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 11.42-2.8%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 60.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
GIL Vicente
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
1.00
0.53
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.67
0.92
0.58
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Casa Pia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.40
1.07
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.11
0.20
1.40
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.90
0.50
0.90
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (GIL Vicente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.32+7.6%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.18-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Under
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.5%
@ 2.45+4.7%
Under 1.5
57.5%
@ 1.49-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 5.65+1.2%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.11-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GIL Vicente over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
63.5%
@ 1.60+5.6%
Under
36.5%
@ 2.21-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
GIL Vicente over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.6%
@ 3.86-1.3%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.22+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.95
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
GIL Vicente over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 9.25-4.9%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.7%
@ 2.54+2.3%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.45-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 9.20-1.2%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.03+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 40.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
1.03
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
10Bet
1.05
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
81.7%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.9%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.8%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.3%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.1%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.32
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
1.31
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.7%
1.32
Superbet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.3%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
70.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+3.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
GIL Vicente
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Héctor Hernández67%
Gil Martins33%
Ricardo Esgaio0%
Jonathan Buatu0%
Lucão0%
Facundo Cáseres0%
Weverson0%
Joelson Fernandes0%
Andreas Lausen0%
Marvin Elimbi Gilbert0%
Zé Carlos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Cáseres67%
Ricardo Esgaio33%
Héctor Hernández33%
Weverson33%
Marvin Elimbi Gilbert33%
Jonathan Buatu0%
Lucão0%
Joelson Fernandes0%
Andreas Lausen0%
Zé Carlos0%
Gil Martins0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Héctor Hernández33%
Ricardo Esgaio0%
Jonathan Buatu0%
Lucão0%
Facundo Cáseres0%
Weverson0%
Joelson Fernandes0%
Andreas Lausen0%
Marvin Elimbi Gilbert0%
Zé Carlos0%
Gil Martins0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Esgaio0%
Jonathan Buatu0%
Héctor Hernández0%
Lucão0%
Facundo Cáseres0%
Weverson0%
Joelson Fernandes0%
Andreas Lausen0%
Marvin Elimbi Gilbert0%
Zé Carlos0%
Gil Martins0%
Casa Pia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Abdu Conté0%
Rochinha0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Alassana Jatta0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
David Sousa0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Pedro Rosas0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Kevin Prieto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastián Pérez50%
Alassana Jatta25%
David Sousa25%
Pedro Rosas25%
Abdu Conté0%
Rochinha0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
Gabi Pereira0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Kevin Prieto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abdu Conté0%
Rochinha0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Alassana Jatta0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
David Sousa0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Pedro Rosas0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Kevin Prieto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rochinha25%
David Sousa25%
Abdu Conté0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Alassana Jatta0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Pedro Rosas0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Kevin Prieto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
GIL Vicente's squad is €2m more valuable than Casa Pia's (€29m vs €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
GIL Vicente's attack is €1m more valuable than Casa Pia's (€11m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
GIL Vicente's midfield is €2m more valuable than Casa Pia's (€8m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
GIL Vicente's defence is €1m less valuable than Casa Pia's (€11m vs €12m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril