Glacis United arrive at home after a 2-2 draw against Europa, yet their recent form shows only one win in five and a weak offensive output of 0.33 goals per game while conceding 3.33. Lincoln Red Imps FC, on the other hand, have won three of their last five away matches and average 2.89 goals scored and 0.44 conceded against weaker opponents. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning it an 88 % probability, with a draw at 9 % and a home win at 3 %. The expected total is 3.9 goals, and the most likely total is 6 + with a 20 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 0-3 for Lincoln, with a 12.2 % probability. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.7 %), Away +2 handicap (99.2 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.9 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (97.7 %), Draw or Away (96.9 %), Away +1 handicap (96.9 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (96.5 %).
Results analysis
Glacis United entered the match coming off a defeat, while Lincoln Red Imps FC rode a two-game winning streak. The Pythia model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as the final score was 0-2 in favour of Lincoln. The model also predicted an away victory with a probability of 86%, and the most likely scoreline of 0-3 was close to the actual 0-2 result. Every suggested pick hit: Home under 3.5 goals at 99.6%, Away +2 handicap at 99.0%, Home under 2.5 goals at 97.4%, Draw or Away at 96.1%, Away +1 handicap at 96.1%, Away over 0.5 goals at 95.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.5%. The model’s selections performed impressively, confirming the predicted outcome and supporting the overall forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Glacis United win✗ Miss
3.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
10.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC win✓ Hit
85.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Glacis United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.63
0.86
2.50
1.25
2.75
vs Stronger (22)
0.86
3.18
0.33
3.33
1.23
3.08
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.12
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.87
2.31
0.81
2.21
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.20
1.25
1.12
2.14
1.29
vs Weaker (14)
3.00
0.50
3.71
0.43
2.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.6%
Under 2.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
11.9%
0-2 ✓
11.2%
0-4
9.5%
1-3
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.5%
0-5
6.1%
1-4
6.0%
Glacis United goals ↓
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
6.5%
11%
12%
9.5%
1
0.9%
4.8%
7.1%
7.5%
6.0%
2
0.4%
1.4%
2.2%
2.4%
1.9%
3
0.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glacis United goals (down), columns = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Glacis United is 2.12 points worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of average points per game (0.55 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Glacis United is 2.48 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 3.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Glacis United is 1.96 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.59 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Glacis United or Draw✗ Miss
14.1%
Avg Implied -
4%
10%
86%
covers Glacis United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glacis United or Lincoln Red Imps FC✓ Hit
89.8%
Avg Implied -
4%
10%
86%
covers Glacis United + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC✓ Hit
96.1%
Avg Implied -
4%
10%
86%
covers Draw + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Glacis United over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.9%
Under
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
82.9%
Under
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
62.0%
Under
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Glacis United, so a minus line means Glacis United give that many goals of a start and Lincoln Red Imps FC receive them. At -1, Glacis United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Glacis United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Glacis United)Actual: Lincoln Red Imps FC
Glacis United -2
0.2%
Draw -2
0.8%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +2
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Glacis United)Actual: Lincoln Red Imps FC
Glacis United -1
1.0%
Draw -1
2.9%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +1
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Glacis United)Actual: Lincoln Red Imps FC
Glacis United +1
14.1%
Draw +1
16.3%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -1
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Glacis United)Actual: Draw
Glacis United +2
30.4%
Draw +2
20.8%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -2
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Glacis United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.10
0.57
1.07
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
1.41
0.22
1.56
0.46
1.31
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.25
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.06
0.50
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.47
0.50
0.62
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.36
1.86
0.29
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.3%
Under 0.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.8%
Under 1.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.4%
Under 2.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Glacis United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.53
0.29
1.43
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
1.77
0.11
1.78
0.77
1.77
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.60
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.25
0.31
1.50
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.73
0.75
0.50
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.14
1.86
0.14
1.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
88.8%
Under 0.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.0%
Under 1.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.6%
Under 2.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
81.9%
Under
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 HT goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 0.5 2H goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kike Gómez33%
Christian Rutjens25%
Nicholas Pozo20%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayman El Ghobashy67%
Mandi60%
Graeme Torrilla50%
Jaylan Hankins40%
Joe33%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo33%
Tjay De Barr17%
Kike Gómez17%
Toni Kolega0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe33%
Toni Kolega17%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Juanje Argüez17%
Mandi0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Toni0%
Kike Gómez0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nano20%
Kike Gómez17%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Glacis United's squad is €2m less valuable than Lincoln Red Imps FC's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Glacis United and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Glacis United and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Glacis United and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →