Glacis United, who have struggled at home against stronger opponents, face a St Joseph S Fc side that has been prolific on the road, averaging more than four goals per game while conceding fewer than a goal. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning it an 85% chance, with a 5% chance of a home win and 11% for a draw. The expected total goals is four, yet the most likely total is 6 + with a 21% probability, reflecting the high scoring potential of the visitors. The single most likely scoreline is 0-3 for St Joseph S Fc, with a 10.6% chance. Glacis United have scored only 0.33 goals and conceded 3.33 at home against stronger sides, while St Joseph S Fc have scored 4.33 and conceded 0.56 away against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 99.3%, Away +2 handicap at 98.7%, Away over 0.5 goals at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 goals at 96.1%, Draw or Away at 95.3%, Away +1 handicap at 95.3%, Under 7.5 at 95.0%, and Over 1.5 at 91.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Glacis United win
3.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
8.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc win
88.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Glacis United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.57
0.80
2.47
1.27
2.67
vs Stronger (22)
0.82
3.09
0.30
3.20
1.25
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.12
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.27
0.73
3.27
1.00
3.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.30
0.80
3.25
1.50
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
3.75
0.70
3.27
0.82
4.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.3%
Under 2.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.1%
Under 3.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.0%
No
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
11.6%
0-2
10.1%
0-4
10.0%
1-3
7.4%
0-5
6.9%
1-2
6.4%
1-4
6.4%
0-1
5.5%
Glacis United goals ↓
St Joseph S Fc goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
5.5%
10%
12%
10.0%
1
0.7%
4.1%
6.4%
7.4%
6.4%
2
0.3%
1.2%
2.1%
2.4%
2.0%
3
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Glacis United goals (down), columns = St Joseph S Fc goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Glacis United is 1.79 points worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of average points per game (0.55 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Glacis United is 2.74 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 3.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Glacis United is 1.96 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals conceded per game (2.59 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Glacis United or Draw
12.0%
Avg Implied -
3%
9%
88%
covers Glacis United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glacis United or St Joseph S Fc
91.2%
Avg Implied -
3%
9%
88%
covers Glacis United + St Joseph S Fc
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or St Joseph S Fc
96.8%
Avg Implied -
3%
9%
88%
covers Draw + St Joseph S Fc
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Glacis United over/under 0.5
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5
Over
96.8%
Under
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 3.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Glacis United, so a minus line means Glacis United give that many goals of a start and St Joseph S Fc receive them. At -1, Glacis United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Glacis United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Glacis United)
Glacis United -2
0.1%
Draw -2
0.7%
St Joseph S Fc +2
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Glacis United)
Glacis United -1
0.8%
Draw -1
2.4%
St Joseph S Fc +1
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Glacis United)
Glacis United +1
12.0%
Draw +1
14.7%
St Joseph S Fc -1
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Glacis United)
Glacis United +2
26.7%
Draw +2
19.7%
St Joseph S Fc -2
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Glacis United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
1.45
0.20
1.60
0.42
1.33
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.25
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.27
1.47
0.40
1.33
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.35
1.55
0.45
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Glacis United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.43
0.27
1.33
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
1.64
0.10
1.60
0.83
1.67
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.60
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.47
1.80
0.60
1.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
2.00
1.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.20
0.35
1.73
0.36
2.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away -1 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Glacis United's squad is €1m less valuable than St Joseph S Fc's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Glacis United and St Joseph S Fc have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Glacis United and St Joseph S Fc have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Glacis United and St Joseph S Fc have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →