The model favours an away win for Dinamo Minsk II, with a 47 % chance of victory, a 27 % draw probability, and a 26 % home win chance. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6 % probability. Gomel II, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 2.29 conceded, while Dinamo Minsk II, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Recent form shows Gomel II struggling after two straight defeats and a 0-4 loss to Uni Minsk, whereas Dinamo Minsk II has endured five consecutive losses, losing 1-2 to Bumprom. Suggested picks from the model include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7 %), Under 5.5 (93.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.3 %), Away +2 handicap (88.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.1 %), and Under 4.5 (83.9 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gomel II win
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II win
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gomel II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
2.50
0.87
2.13
1.00
2.87
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
2.73
0.86
2.29
0.75
3.25
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.53
0.86
1.50
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.67
0.67
1.67
1.08
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.00
4.00
0.00
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Gomel II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.7%
No
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
7.8%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
Gomel II goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
7.8%
8.4%
5.4%
2.6%
1
4.3%
11%
9.8%
6.3%
3.0%
2
3.1%
6.0%
5.7%
3.7%
1.8%
3
1.2%
2.3%
2.2%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gomel II goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Gomel II is 0.25 points worse than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Gomel II is 0.38 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Gomel II is 0.50 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.38 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gomel II or Draw
46.1%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers Gomel II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gomel II or Dinamo Minsk II
75.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers Gomel II + Dinamo Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dinamo Minsk II
78.1%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers Draw + Dinamo Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gomel II over/under 0.5
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 1.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5
Over
85.3%
Under
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5
Over
57.1%
Under
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 3.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gomel II, so a minus line means Gomel II give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Minsk II receive them. At -1, Gomel II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gomel II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gomel II)
Gomel II -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.2%
Dinamo Minsk II +2
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gomel II)
Gomel II -1
8.9%
Draw -1
13.0%
Dinamo Minsk II +1
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gomel II)
Gomel II +1
46.1%
Draw +1
22.0%
Dinamo Minsk II -1
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gomel II)
Gomel II +2
68.1%
Draw +2
16.7%
Dinamo Minsk II -2
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gomel II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.27
1.00
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.42
1.08
0.29
1.07
0.58
1.08
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.36
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.62
0.25
0.67
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gomel II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gomel II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gomel II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.50
0.60
1.13
0.27
1.87
vs Stronger (26)
0.38
1.65
0.57
1.21
0.17
2.17
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.86
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.54
1.04
0.42
1.00
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
2.00
0.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Gomel II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gomel II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Gomel II and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Gomel II and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Gomel II and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Gomel II and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
BATE II
Shakhter Soligorsk