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Gorica vs Ilirija Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2024
Time: 18:00
Final 4-1
Gorica
Gorica
Vs
45%
28%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gorica win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GoricaGorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D23L11D10W20W31W11D10W20W51WA·RUD26/10H·TOL29/10H·BRI05/11A·BIL11/11H·RUD18/11A·NAF03/03H·DEK09/03A·DRA16/03H·KRK22/03A·BIS30/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.071.731.201.530.93
vs Stronger (2)1.502.001.502.00--
vs Similar (17)1.591.411.501.381.671.44
vs Weaker (11)1.730.362.200.601.330.17
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W03L02L12L21W00D13L11D02L12LH·BRI29/10H·BIL06/11A·NAF09/11A·RUD12/11H·NAF18/11A·DEK02/03H·DRA10/03A·KRK15/03H·BIS23/03H·TRI29/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.371.271.401.201.33
vs Stronger (6)1.171.501.751.750.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.251.331.091.271.381.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.9%
Under 2.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.7%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Gorica goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
01234
08.7%7.0%4.5%1.7%0.5%
110.0%14%6.7%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.2%5.0%1.8%0.5%
34.2%4.6%2.5%0.9%0.3%
41.5%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gorica goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Gorica is 0.77 points better than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Gorica is 0.67 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Gorica is 0.53 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GoricaGorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L00D10W10W01L00D10W21WA·RUD26/10H·TOL29/10H·BRI05/11A·BIL11/11H·RUD18/11A·NAF03/03H·DEK09/03A·DRA16/03H·KRK22/03A·BIS30/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.870.470.600.40
vs Stronger (2)1.000.501.000.50--
vs Similar (17)0.880.530.880.380.890.67
vs Weaker (11)0.450.270.800.600.170.00
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L00D02L10W00D11D01L01L01LH·BRI29/10H·BIL06/11A·NAF09/11A·RUD12/11H·NAF18/11A·DEK02/03H·DRA10/03A·KRK15/03H·BIS23/03H·TRI29/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.730.530.530.87
vs Stronger (6)0.500.330.750.500.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.670.790.730.550.621.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GoricaGorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L10W10W10W21W10W10W10W30WA·RUD26/10H·TOL29/10H·BRI05/11A·BIL11/11H·RUD18/11A·NAF03/03H·DEK09/03A·DRA16/03H·KRK22/03A·BIS30/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.630.870.730.930.53
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Similar (17)0.710.880.621.000.780.78
vs Weaker (11)1.270.091.400.001.170.17
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D02L10W11D00D02L10W01L11DH·BRI29/10H·BIL06/11A·NAF09/11A·RUD12/11H·NAF18/11A·DEK02/03H·DRA10/03A·KRK15/03H·BIS23/03H·TRI29/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.530.870.670.47
vs Stronger (6)0.671.171.001.250.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.580.540.360.730.770.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
GOR wins
0
Draws
0
ILI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gorica vs Ilirija · H/A from GOR
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/23AIlirija Vs GOR0-4

GoricaGorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24ABistrica Vs GOR1-5
22/03/24HGOR Vs Krka2-0
16/03/24ADravinja Vs GOR0-1
09/03/24HGOR Vs Dekani1-1
03/03/24ANafta Vs GOR1-3
18/11/23HGOR Vs Rudar2-0
11/11/23ABilje Vs GOR0-1
05/11/23HGOR Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-1
29/10/23HGOR Vs Tolmin2-3
26/10/23ARudar Vs GOR0-0

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/24HILI Vs Triglav1-2
23/03/24HILI Vs Bistrica0-2
15/03/24AKrka Vs ILI1-1
10/03/24HILI Vs Dravinja1-3
02/03/24ADekani Vs ILI0-0
18/11/23HILI Vs Nafta2-1
12/11/23ARudar Vs ILI2-1
09/11/23ANafta Vs ILI2-0
06/11/23HILI Vs Bilje0-3
29/10/23HILI Vs Brinje-Grosuplje4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gorica
Gorica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.28
HomeLDWDW1.33
AwayDWWWW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%35%
AVG goals2.562.542.58
Over 1.5 %72%83%62%
Over 2.5 %40%38%42%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.281.291.27
Conceded1.281.251.31
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners9.249.459.00
Cards4.384.454.30
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.40
HomeLWLLL1.52
AwayLLLDD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.742.842.64
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.501.561.44
Conceded1.241.281.20
BTTS42%48%36%
Clean Sheet38%36%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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