This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.07
1.40
0.93
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.67
1.40
1.60
1.50
1.75
vs Similar (16)
1.56
0.81
1.44
0.56
1.71
1.14
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-0
8.7%
1-0
8.5%
0-1
8.3%
2-1 ✓
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.2%
Grazer AK goals ↓
Ried goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
8.3%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.5%
14%
8.1%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.4%
8.2%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
3
2.8%
3.6%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grazer AK goals (down), columns = Ried goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
1.81
Sturm Graz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.50
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
Ried
1.37
TSV Hartberg
1.31
SCR Altach
1.31
WSG Wattens
1.25
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
Grazer AK
1.16
FC BW Linz
0.91
Grazer AK is 0.22 points worse than Ried in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.59
Austria Vienna
1.41
Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
TSV Hartberg
1.25
WSG Wattens
1.25
Ried
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.18
FC BW Linz
1.16
SCR Altach
1.12
Grazer AK is 0.11 goals better than Ried in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
1.09
SCR Altach
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Rapid Vienna
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg
1.28
Lask Linz
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.33
Ried
1.34
Grazer AK
1.41
FC BW Linz
1.53
Austria Vienna
1.56
WSG Wattens
1.62
Grazer AK is 0.06 goals worse than Ried in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
60%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
54%
SCR Altach
52%
Wolfsberger AC
51%
FC BW Linz
50%
Ried
49%
Lask Linz
49%
Austria Vienna
49%
Grazer AK
48%
WSG Wattens
44%
TSV Hartberg
39%
Grazer AK is 1.6 percentage points worse than Ried in terms of average possession (48% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Grazer AK
For 3.8 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ried
For 4.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grazer AK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.7
9.1
5.0
5.8
4.4
23.9
23.9
23.9
vs Stronger (17)
10.1
10.6
9.6
5.2
5.5
5.0
23.5
23.1
23.8
vs Similar (31)
9.0
9.2
8.8
5.3
5.9
4.6
24.1
24.3
23.9
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
42%
58%
72%
88%
58%
73%
75%
71%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
28%
12%
42%
27%
25%
29%
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.3
8.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
22.2
22.8
21.6
vs Stronger (9)
9.2
11.5
7.0
4.3
4.6
4.0
22.1
23.0
21.2
vs Similar (29)
7.6
7.5
7.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
21.9
21.8
21.9
vs Weaker (12)
8.7
7.0
10.0
2.8
2.4
3.0
23.4
26.7
21.0
% over line
28%
32%
24%
62%
58%
65%
62%
63%
62%
% under line
72%
68%
76%
38%
42%
35%
38%
37%
38%
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rapid Vienna
10.6
Austria Vienna
10.2
Lask Linz
10.1
WSG Wattens
9.9
Sturm Graz
9.5
Red Bull Salzburg
9.5
Grazer AK
9.4
TSV Hartberg
9.4
Wolfsberger AC
9.4
FC BW Linz
9.1
SCR Altach
8.6
Ried
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.6
Grazer AK
5.5
TSV Hartberg
5.2
Wolfsberger AC
5.0
Austria Vienna
5.0
Ried
4.9
FC BW Linz
4.7
Rapid Vienna
4.7
Sturm Graz
4.6
WSG Wattens
4.5
Lask Linz
4.3
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
24.9
SCR Altach
24.8
Sturm Graz
24.2
Grazer AK
24.0
Austria Vienna
23.5
TSV Hartberg
22.8
Wolfsberger AC
22.8
Ried
22.6
FC BW Linz
22.2
WSG Wattens
21.8
Lask Linz
21.2
Red Bull Salzburg
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.1%
Under 9.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.1%
Under 3.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.6%
Under 21.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grazer AK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.57
0.71
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.68
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.00
0.80
1.20
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.19
0.44
0.11
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grazer AK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grazer AK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.57
0.64
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.40
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.63
0.67
0.78
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.80
0.40
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.62
1.00
0.44
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Grazer AK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grazer AK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grazer AK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Grazer AK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Maderner32%
Ramiz Harakate30%
Mark Große18%
Alexander Hofleitner18%
Christian Lichtenberger10%
Jacob Italiano8%
Murat Satin7%
Leon Klassen7%
Mathias Olesen7%
Tio Cipot7%
Donovan Pines3%
Beres Owusu3%
Martin Kreuzriegler0%
Franz Stolz0%
Thorsten Schriebl0%
Dominik Frieser0%
Tobias Koch0%
Jakob Meierhofer0%
Lukas Graf0%
Thomas Schiestl0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Sadik Fofana0%
Tim Paumgartner0%
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen0%
Zétény Jánó0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thorsten Schriebl27%
Tobias Koch26%
Ramiz Harakate23%
Beres Owusu23%
Daniel Maderner20%
Zétény Jánó18%
Alexander Hofleitner18%
Tim Paumgartner17%
Martin Kreuzriegler15%
Murat Satin14%
Yannick Oberleitner14%
Franz Stolz13%
Leon Klassen13%
Mathias Olesen13%
Tio Cipot13%
Donovan Pines10%
Lukas Graf9%
Dominik Frieser7%
Christian Lichtenberger7%
Jacob Italiano4%
Mark Große0%
Jakob Meierhofer0%
Thomas Schiestl0%
Sadik Fofana0%
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mark Große18%
Ramiz Harakate13%
Tobias Koch11%
Alexander Hofleitner11%
Thorsten Schriebl9%
Daniel Maderner8%
Murat Satin7%
Leon Klassen7%
Mathias Olesen7%
Tio Cipot7%
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen4%
Dominik Frieser4%
Christian Lichtenberger3%
Jacob Italiano0%
Martin Kreuzriegler0%
Franz Stolz0%
Donovan Pines0%
Jakob Meierhofer0%
Lukas Graf0%
Thomas Schiestl0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Sadik Fofana0%
Tim Paumgartner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Zétény Jánó0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ramiz Harakate23%
Alexander Hofleitner11%
Daniel Maderner8%
Tio Cipot7%
Jacob Italiano4%
Murat Satin4%
Christian Lichtenberger3%
Martin Kreuzriegler0%
Franz Stolz0%
Thorsten Schriebl0%
Dominik Frieser0%
Tobias Koch0%
Leon Klassen0%
Donovan Pines0%
Mark Große0%
Jakob Meierhofer0%
Lukas Graf0%
Mathias Olesen0%
Thomas Schiestl0%
Yannick Oberleitner0%
Sadik Fofana0%
Tim Paumgartner0%
Beres Owusu0%
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen0%
Zétény Jánó0%
Ried
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kingstone Mutandwa34%
Mark Große15%
Peter Kiedl15%
Ante Bajić13%
Antonio Van Wyk10%
Philipp Pomer9%
Nikki Havenaar9%
Oliver Steurer6%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Joris Boguo4%
Michael Sollbauer0%
Christopher Wernitznig0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Saliou Sané0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Jonas Mayer0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Yussef Nasrawe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ante Bajić32%
Christopher Wernitznig20%
Nicolas Bajlicz20%
Peter Kiedl20%
Philipp Pomer19%
Kingstone Mutandwa19%
Martin Rasner19%
Michael Sollbauer18%
Joris Boguo16%
Mark Große15%
Jonas Mayer14%
Saliou Sané12%
Yussef Nasrawe12%
Nikki Havenaar12%
Oliver Steurer11%
Andreas Leitner9%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Yusuf Maart3%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Antonio Van Wyk0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ante Bajić16%
Philipp Pomer12%
Antonio Van Wyk10%
Peter Kiedl10%
Mark Große8%
Kingstone Mutandwa6%
Yussef Nasrawe6%
Nikki Havenaar6%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Jonas Mayer3%
Michael Sollbauer3%
Andreas Leitner3%
Oliver Steurer3%
Christopher Wernitznig0%
Martin Rasner0%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Saliou Sané0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Joris Boguo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kingstone Mutandwa38%
Mark Große15%
Antonio Van Wyk7%
Ante Bajić6%
Yussef Nasrawe6%
Peter Kiedl5%
Fabian Rossdorfer4%
Michael Sollbauer0%
Christopher Wernitznig0%
Martin Rasner0%
Andreas Leitner0%
Jonathan Scherzer0%
Oliver Steurer0%
Saliou Sané0%
Nikki Havenaar0%
Yusuf Maart0%
Philipp Pomer0%
Dominik Kirnbauer0%
Ekain Azkune0%
Jonas Mayer0%
Nicolas Bajlicz0%
Evan Eghosa0%
Joris Boguo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
FBL (21)
€5m
Grazer AK's squad is €2m more valuable than Ried's (€9m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
Grazer AK and Ried have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
FBL (4)
€1m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
Grazer AK's midfield is €1m less valuable than Ried's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
FBL (8)
€2m
Grazer AK's defence is €3m more valuable than Ried's (€6m vs €3m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
TSV Hartberg
SCR Altach
Wolfsberger AC
WSG Wattens
FC BW Linz