Grenoble hosts Metz in a finely balanced Ligue 2 match, with the home side coming off a defeat against Dunkerque, while Metz is riding a wave of confidence after a 2-1 win over Guingamp. Grenoble's recent form has seen them score 0.92 goals on average at home against similar opponents, conceding 1.08 goals. Metz, meanwhile, scores 1.43 goals on average away against similar opponents, but concedes 2.29 goals.
The model predicts a Grenoble home win, with a 39% chance of success, a 29% draw probability, and a 32% chance of an away Metz win. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability.
The model's selection for the match result is a Grenoble home win. The model also suggests Over 21.5 fouls (83.9%), Over 1.5 (74.3% with a 4% edge), and Under 3.5 (73.8%). Grenoble has a 39% chance of winning, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance of an away Metz win.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Grenoble drew with Metz, ending their opponent's run of consecutive draws. The final score was a 0-0 stalemate, with the actual result being a draw. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, as the pre-match probability of this outcome stood at 39%.
The model's selection was not the only one to miss the mark, as 'Over 1.5' goals also failed to materialize, despite having a pre-match probability of 74.3%. In contrast, the model's call on 'Over 21.5 fouls' proved correct, with this outcome occurring at a pre-match probability of 83.9%. Meanwhile, 'Under 3.5' goals was another correct call, with a pre-match probability of 73.8%.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Grenoble winâ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.52
Edge
+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.62
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.60
Drawâ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.28
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.44
Marathonbet
3.38
Dafabet
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Betano
3.30
Metz winâ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 45.2% · @ 2.06
Edge
-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Dafabet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
✠2. Goal Analysis
Grenoble
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.20
0.79
0.93
1.19
1.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.00
1.33
0.92
1.08
1.07
1.53
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.17
1.07
2.13
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
2.33
1.17
1.83
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (17)
1.12
2.18
1.00
2.33
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.3%
@ 1.33+4.4%
Under 1.5
25.7%
@ 3.10-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.13
Marathonbet
3.12
Betfair
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.07+2.4%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.73-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Under
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
@ 3.74+1.3%
Under 3.5
73.8%
@ 1.24-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.02
888Sport
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.9%
@ 1.83+3.5%
No
46.1%
@ 1.86-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.90
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
No
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 6.00+6.4%
1-0
9.0%@ 9.19+4.1%
0-0 â
8.8%@ 8.62+3.6%
2-1
8.6%@ 11.34+4.6%
0-1
7.9%@ 6.43+1.0%
1-2
7.7%@ 8.19+2.2%
2-0
7.0%@ 16.71+4.3%
0-2
5.6%@ 8.88+0.6%
Grenoble goals ↓
Metz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.9%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.0%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.6%
5.2%
2.1%
0.7%
3
3.2%
3.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grenoble goals (down), columns = Metz goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Grenoble is 0.56 points worse than Metz in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.64).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Grenoble is 0.63 goals worse than Metz in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.54).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Grenoble is 0.20 goals worse than Metz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.00).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grenoble
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.37
0.50
0.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.07
0.33
1.07
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.17
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.47
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grenoble over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grenoble over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grenoble over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grenoble
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.36
0.64
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.96
0.42
0.75
0.67
1.13
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.73
1.07
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.08
0.83
0.67
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.18
0.67
1.33
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grenoble over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grenoble over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grenoble over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.7%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+7.2%
â Hit
Over 1.5
74.3%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+4.4%
â Miss
Under 3.5
73.8%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-1.3%
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Grenoble's squad is €31m less valuable than Metz's (€12m vs €43m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Grenoble's attack is €12m less valuable than Metz's (€5m vs €17m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Grenoble's midfield is €15m less valuable than Metz's (€3m vs €18m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Grenoble's defence is €4m less valuable than Metz's (€4m vs €8m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes