This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.67
1.41
1.65
0.62
1.69
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
2.00
0.43
2.29
0.71
1.71
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.40
1.89
1.22
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 1.85-0.7%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.89+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.1%
Grimsby goals ↓
Accrington goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.3%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.9%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.5%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.0%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grimsby goals (down), columns = Accrington goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Grimsby is 0.17 points worse than Accrington in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Grimsby is 0.13 goals worse than Accrington in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Grimsby is 0.07 goals worse than Accrington in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Grimsby is 0.6 percentage points better than Accrington in terms of average possession (49% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Grimsby
For 4.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.3 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
For 5.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.6
10.2
3.4
3.0
4.0
22.1
22.3
21.8
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
12.0
6.5
4.3
2.0
5.5
20.0
23.0
18.5
vs Similar (41)
10.5
9.9
11.2
3.3
3.0
3.7
21.8
22.0
21.5
vs Weaker (6)
6.8
6.7
7.0
3.7
3.0
4.3
24.8
23.7
26.0
% over line
50%
58%
42%
48%
31%
67%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
50%
42%
58%
52%
69%
33%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
24.9
25.2
24.6
vs Stronger (25)
10.6
10.5
10.8
4.3
4.2
4.4
25.0
26.1
23.8
vs Similar (24)
9.7
9.3
10.1
4.7
4.9
4.5
25.0
24.4
25.5
vs Weaker (1)
5.0
5.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
60%
58%
62%
64%
69%
58%
76%
85%
67%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
36%
31%
42%
24%
15%
33%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wrexham
11.6
Crewe
11.1
Forest Green
10.7
Colchester
10.6
Tranmere
10.5
Morecambe
10.4
Milton Keynes Dons
10.3
Notts County
10.2
Swindon
10.1
Bradford
10.1
Accrington
10.1
Harrogate
10.0
Crawley Town
10.0
Grimsby
9.9
Mansfield
9.6
AFC Wimbledon
9.5
Doncaster
9.4
Stockport
9.4
Sutton
9.3
Walsall
9.3
Salford
9.2
Newport County
9.2
Barrow
9.1
Gillingham
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.6
Colchester
4.6
Accrington
4.5
Swindon
4.3
Notts County
4.0
Forest Green
3.9
Morecambe
3.9
Bradford
3.9
Barrow
3.9
Crawley Town
3.9
Milton Keynes Dons
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Walsall
3.8
Salford
3.7
Newport County
3.6
Sutton
3.5
Doncaster
3.4
Grimsby
3.4
Crewe
3.4
Gillingham
3.4
Tranmere
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Harrogate
3.1
Wrexham
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AFC Wimbledon
25.0
Accrington
24.9
Gillingham
23.4
Barrow
23.4
Sutton
23.3
Salford
23.2
Crewe
22.9
Stockport
22.8
Colchester
22.8
Newport County
22.4
Bradford
22.2
Grimsby
22.1
Crawley Town
21.9
Walsall
21.7
Mansfield
21.5
Swindon
21.5
Milton Keynes Dons
21.4
Forest Green
21.3
Morecambe
20.7
Harrogate
20.7
Tranmere
20.6
Doncaster
20.1
Wrexham
19.9
Notts County
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.9%
Under 9.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.2%
Under 3.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
48.4%
Under 21.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.69
0.31
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.40
0.79
0.29
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.53
0.82
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.07
0.00
1.43
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.47
0.89
0.44
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grimsby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.56
0.56
0.29
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.72
0.50
0.43
0.36
1.09
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.88
0.82
0.23
1.08
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.93
0.43
0.86
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.93
1.00
0.78
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Grimsby · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andy Cook50%
Cian Doyle33%
H. Rodgers25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Sweeney25%
H. Rodgers25%
C. McJannet25%
M. Kacurri25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Andy Cook0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Green50%
G. Turi50%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Andy Cook0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Cook50%
Iwan Morgan25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Cian Doyle0%
Accrington · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Woods50%
Stefan Mols33%
F. Rawson25%
D. Tutonda0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Anderson50%
J. Woods50%
Seamus Conneely33%
S. Whalley33%
Liam Coyle33%
Tom Moore33%
F. Rawson25%
Donald Love25%
D. Tutonda0%
C. Stockton0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Donald Love25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
J. Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Woods50%
Donald Love25%
Charlie Caton25%
Alex Henderson25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Grimsby's squad is €1m more valuable than Accrington's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Grimsby and Accrington have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Grimsby and Accrington have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Grimsby's defence is €1m more valuable than Accrington's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Gillingham
Harrogate
Notts County
Morecambe
Tranmere
Newport County
Swindon
Salford
Colchester
Sutton
Forest Green