This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.47
0.88
1.44
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
1.36
0.83
1.25
1.10
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.75
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.6%
@ 2.17+3.4%
Under 2.5
53.4%
@ 1.65-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0 ✓
12.2%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
3-0
6.3%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.4%
Grimsby goals ↓
Rochdale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
5.6%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.6%
4.1%
1.2%
0.2%
3
6.3%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
4
2.7%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grimsby goals (down), columns = Rochdale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leyton Orient
1.98
Stevenage
1.85
Northampton
1.80
Stockport
1.72
Bradford
1.65
Carlisle
1.65
Mansfield
1.63
Salford
1.63
Barrow
1.35
Grimsby
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Sutton
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Tranmere
1.26
Newport County
1.24
Doncaster
1.20
Walsall
1.20
Gillingham
1.20
Harrogate
1.13
Colchester
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.00
Hartlepool
0.93
Rochdale
0.83
Grimsby is 0.50 points better than Rochdale in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mansfield
1.57
Salford
1.57
Carlisle
1.43
Stockport
1.41
Northampton
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Bradford
1.33
Stevenage
1.33
Harrogate
1.28
Newport County
1.15
Hartlepool
1.13
Grimsby
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.04
Crewe
1.04
Barrow
1.02
Sutton
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Rochdale
1.00
Tranmere
0.98
Colchester
0.96
Gillingham
0.78
Grimsby is 0.07 goals better than Rochdale in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leyton Orient
0.74
Stockport
0.80
Stevenage
0.85
Northampton
0.91
Bradford
0.93
Carlisle
0.93
Tranmere
1.04
Walsall
1.07
Gillingham
1.07
Colchester
1.11
Barrow
1.15
Salford
1.17
Swindon
1.20
Mansfield
1.20
Grimsby
1.22
Newport County
1.22
Sutton
1.26
AFC Wimbledon
1.30
Crewe
1.30
Doncaster
1.41
Harrogate
1.48
Rochdale
1.52
Crawley Town
1.54
Hartlepool
1.70
Grimsby is 0.30 goals better than Rochdale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
58%
Leyton Orient
58%
Salford
57%
Bradford
54%
Stockport
54%
Mansfield
53%
Hartlepool
51%
Crawley Town
51%
Northampton
51%
Tranmere
51%
Grimsby
50%
Doncaster
50%
Rochdale
49%
Harrogate
48%
Crewe
48%
Stevenage
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Newport County
46%
Carlisle
46%
Sutton
46%
Walsall
46%
Barrow
46%
Colchester
46%
Gillingham
45%
Grimsby is 0.9 percentage points better than Rochdale in terms of average possession (50% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Grimsby
For 3.1 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 8.5 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rochdale
For 4.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.0
3.1
2.8
3.5
22.4
22.0
22.8
vs Stronger (3)
10.5
12.0
9.0
5.0
4.0
7.0
23.5
23.0
24.0
vs Similar (35)
9.1
9.2
9.1
2.8
2.5
3.1
21.6
21.6
21.6
vs Weaker (12)
9.0
9.5
8.7
3.6
3.2
3.9
26.0
24.0
27.3
% over line
41%
50%
31%
42%
28%
56%
62%
56%
69%
% under line
59%
50%
69%
58%
72%
44%
38%
44%
31%
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.7
10.0
3.2
3.4
3.0
22.0
23.0
21.0
vs Stronger (37)
9.1
8.2
10.1
3.3
3.3
3.2
22.2
22.9
21.4
vs Similar (13)
9.9
10.1
9.7
3.2
3.7
2.5
21.6
23.1
19.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
35%
54%
46%
50%
42%
54%
62%
46%
% under line
56%
65%
46%
54%
50%
58%
46%
38%
54%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crewe
10.3
Sutton
10.3
Swindon
10.1
Harrogate
10.0
Tranmere
9.9
Bradford
9.9
Crawley Town
9.8
Mansfield
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Salford
9.6
Barrow
9.6
Colchester
9.5
Carlisle
9.4
Rochdale
9.3
Northampton
9.2
Grimsby
9.2
Walsall
9.1
Doncaster
9.1
Stockport
9.1
Hartlepool
9.1
Newport County
9.0
Stevenage
9.0
Leyton Orient
8.8
Gillingham
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.6
Northampton
4.1
Barrow
4.0
Swindon
3.8
Colchester
3.8
Leyton Orient
3.8
Mansfield
3.7
Sutton
3.4
Walsall
3.4
Bradford
3.4
Carlisle
3.4
Gillingham
3.3
Salford
3.3
Newport County
3.3
Rochdale
3.2
Stockport
3.2
Stevenage
3.2
Tranmere
3.1
Grimsby
3.1
Crewe
3.1
Doncaster
2.9
Harrogate
2.8
Crawley Town
2.8
Hartlepool
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AFC Wimbledon
26.4
Northampton
24.1
Barrow
23.9
Sutton
23.5
Crewe
23.3
Salford
23.1
Stockport
23.1
Bradford
22.9
Colchester
22.9
Stevenage
22.9
Gillingham
22.8
Crawley Town
22.6
Mansfield
22.5
Grimsby
22.4
Walsall
22.2
Rochdale
22.0
Leyton Orient
22.0
Newport County
21.9
Swindon
21.8
Tranmere
21.5
Doncaster
21.2
Hartlepool
20.7
Harrogate
19.9
Carlisle
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.1%
Under 9.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.7%
Under 21.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.65
0.50
0.83
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.44
0.56
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (22)
0.45
0.73
0.42
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grimsby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.70
0.58
0.50
0.91
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.44
0.88
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
0.64
0.42
0.75
0.60
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.12
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Grimsby · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andy Cook50%
Cian Doyle33%
H. Rodgers25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Sweeney25%
H. Rodgers25%
C. McJannet25%
M. Kacurri25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Andy Cook0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Green50%
G. Turi50%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Andy Cook0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Cook50%
Iwan Morgan25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Cian Doyle0%
Rochdale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Adeeko33%
Luke Hanannt25%
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell20%
Z. Silcott-Duberry20%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
D. Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling25%
Sam Sherring25%
D. Brown25%
Kaiden Wilson25%
H. Gilmour20%
Nils Ramming20%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
E. Francis0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
B. Adeeko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
D. Brown25%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe20%
H. Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt25%
D. Brown25%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Grimsby's squad is €1m more valuable than Rochdale's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Grimsby and Rochdale have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Grimsby and Rochdale have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STO (11)
€4m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Grimsby's defence is €1m more valuable than Rochdale's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Northampton
Stockport
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford
Mansfield
Barrow
Swindon
Tranmere
Crewe
Sutton
Newport County
Walsall
Gillingham
Doncaster
Harrogate
Colchester
AFC Wimbledon
Crawley Town
Hartlepool