The contest between Grobiņa and FK Liepāja is a razor-thin affair, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. The odds are almost even, with a 32% chance of a home victory, 26% for a draw and 41% that FK Liepāja will come away with the win. The expected total of goals sits at three, yet the most probable total is two, with a 24% chance of that figure. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, a 12.3% probability, and that is the only scoreline to be cited.
Grobiņa’s home form is solid, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against teams of similar strength, while FK Liepāja’s away record is modest, with 0.88 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81% probability of hitting that mark. Both sides have recently come off wins - Grobiņa 1-0 over BFC Daugavpils and FK Liepāja 3-2 over Riga - adding to the uncertainty. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 is the only other choice presented, with no edge percentage noted.
Results analysis
The match saw FK Liepaja extend their winning run, with a 1-3 victory over Grobiņa, confirming the model’s predicted away win. The pre-match favourite, “Away win,” carried a 41% probability and proved correct. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, with an 81% chance, hit as the game produced four goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, but the final 1-3 result still fell within the expected range. Grobiņa’s home form, after a win, had been shaky, while FK Liepaja’s away form, also coming off a win, showed resilience. Overall, the prediction model delivered accurately on both outcome and goal expectation.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grobiņa win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.23
1.64
2.36
0.56
2.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
3.30
0.25
4.00
0.33
2.83
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.92
2.50
2.00
0.50
1.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.38
1.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
1.13
1.53
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.33
0.67
2.33
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.88
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
1.44
1.60
1.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
6.9%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
Grobiņa goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.9%
6.4%
3.4%
1.4%
1
5.9%
12%
8.9%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.8%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.3%
3.6%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Grobiņa goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
Grobiņa is 0.28 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.81 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
Grobiņa is 0.08 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
Grobiņa is 0.61 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.71
1.43
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.20
0.25
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.17
0.83
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.67
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.17
0.93
0.93
0.19
1.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
2.10
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.17
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.75
1.67
0.67
0.00
0.83
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.62
0.75
0.25
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.33
0.71
0.29
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
1.44
0.80
1.80
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Grobiņa's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Grobiņa and FK Liepaja have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Grobiņa and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Grobiņa and FK Liepaja have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Valmiera / BSS
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Metta / LU
Tukums
FS Jelgava