Groningen’s recent 1-5 loss to PSV Eindhoven has left the side looking to rebound, while Fortuna Sittard also comes off a 0-2 defeat to AZ Alkmaar. The model’s most confident outcome is a home win, with a 56 % chance, followed by a 24 % draw and a 20 % away victory. The average number of goals expected is 3.0, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 23 % probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.4 % chance. Groningen, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded; Fortuna Sittard, away, averages 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Under 7.5 (98.8 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8 % with a 3 % edge), Under 6.5 (96.7 % with a 4 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.5 % with an 8 % edge), Home +2 handicap (92.8 % with a 1 % edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.5 % with a 10 % edge).
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: after a string of two defeats, Groningen’s home form had been fragile, yet the model still tipped a home win with 56% confidence. The match finished 2-3 in favour of Fortuna Sittard, so the model’s favourite was wrong. The prediction of 3.0 total goals was off, as the game produced five. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.9%) and Home +2 handicap (92.1%). All probabilities were expressed as percentages and no other side was labelled favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Groningen win✗ Miss
56.4%
Avg Implied 63.9% · @ 1.47
Edge
-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Dafabet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 20.1% · @ 4.68
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.90
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.85
1xBet
4.84
Pinnacle
4.84
Fortuna Sittard win✓ Hit
19.6%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.87
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
6.40
1xBet
6.22
Pinnacle
6.14
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.53
1.62
1.15
1.35
1.82
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.20
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.33
1.38
1.12
1.62
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.93
1.62
1.94
1.29
1.93
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
2.58
1.33
2.33
1.33
2.83
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.50
1.80
1.70
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
@ 1.13-1.9%
Under 1.5
19.0%
@ 5.51+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Pinnacle
5.61
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.47-6.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
@ 2.61+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
Under
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.1%
@ 2.18-8.3%
Under 3.5
64.9%
@ 1.67+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.71
SBO
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
@ 1.58-1.7%
No
42.9%
@ 2.26+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
No
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.30
William Hil
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 8.71+6.1%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.64+3.9%
2-0
9.3%@ 8.55+4.0%
1-0
8.6%@ 9.15+3.6%
3-1
6.4%@ 9.96+1.8%
0-0
6.0%@ 18.17+3.5%
3-0
6.0%@ 10.95+1.8%
1-2
5.5%@ 15.91+2.6%
Groningen goals ↓
Fortuna Sittard goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.3%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.6%
11%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.0%
6.4%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Groningen goals (down), columns = Fortuna Sittard goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Groningen is 0.22 points better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Groningen is 0.04 goals worse than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Groningen is 0.51 goals better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Groningen is 5.6 percentage points better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of average possession (50% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Groningen
For 4.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Sittard
For 3.7 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Groningen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.6
9.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
20.9
20.6
21.1
vs Stronger (18)
8.7
9.9
7.7
3.1
3.4
2.8
21.1
20.9
21.2
vs Similar (31)
10.9
11.2
10.6
3.6
3.5
3.7
20.8
20.7
21.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
50%
54%
46%
42%
46%
38%
52%
46%
58%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
58%
54%
62%
48%
54%
42%
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.5
3.3
3.5
3.0
23.5
24.2
22.8
vs Stronger (20)
11.1
12.0
10.2
3.2
4.1
2.3
22.3
23.9
20.7
vs Similar (30)
10.6
10.6
10.7
3.3
3.1
3.6
24.4
24.4
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
40%
38%
42%
68%
73%
62%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
60%
62%
58%
32%
27%
38%
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Cambuur
10.1
Groningen
10.0
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.8
Fortuna Sittard
23.5
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.6
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.8
Groningen
20.9
Twente
20.8
Sparta Rotterdam
20.5
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.8%
@ 1.68+7.5%
Under 9.5
37.2%
@ 2.08-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Unibet
2.14
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.2%
@ 1.57-20.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
@ 2.22+20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Under
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
46.6%
@ 1.78-4.4%
Under 21.5
53.4%
@ 1.85+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Groningen or Draw✗ Miss
79.7%
Avg Implied 83.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-3.8%
56%
24%
20%
covers Groningen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Groningen or Fortuna Sittard✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.17
Edge
-4.8%
56%
24%
20%
covers Groningen + Fortuna Sittard
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Draw or Fortuna Sittard✓ Hit
44.7%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.60
Edge
+8.6%
56%
24%
20%
covers Draw + Fortuna Sittard
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.70
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Superbet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Groningen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
@ 1.06-3.1%
Under
15.1%
@ 7.77+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Groningen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.41-9.8%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.75+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.75
Groningen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
@ 2.30-11.2%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.57+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Groningen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.33-9.1%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.18+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.59
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.0%
@ 1.45+1.8%
Under
34.0%
@ 2.60-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Under
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.63
Superbet
2.57
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.3%
@ 3.20+0.1%
Under
70.7%
@ 1.32-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.44
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.5%
@ 8.10-2.0%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.05+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
Superbet
8.40
Betfair
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Fortuna Sittard over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 21.67-2.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Groningen, so a minus line means Groningen give that many goals of a start and Fortuna Sittard receive them. At -1, Groningen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Groningen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Groningen)Actual: Fortuna Sittard
Groningen -2
15.5%
@ 3.82-8.0%
Draw -2
17.3%
@ 4.36-3.4%
Fortuna Sittard +2
67.2%
@ 1.61+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Unibet
3.65
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Away
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Handicap -1 (Groningen)Actual: Fortuna Sittard
Groningen -1
32.8%
@ 2.16-8.7%
Draw -1
22.6%
@ 3.71-1.5%
Fortuna Sittard +1
44.7%
@ 2.59+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Marathonbet
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Handicap +1 (Groningen)Actual: Draw
Groningen +1
79.7%
@ 1.12-0.3%
Draw +1
12.4%
@ 7.28+0.1%
Fortuna Sittard -1
7.9%
@ 11.52+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Handicap +2 (Groningen)Actual: Groningen
Groningen +2
92.1%
@ 1.03-0.4%
Draw +2
5.6%
@ 18.00+0.3%
Fortuna Sittard -2
2.3%
@ 43.50+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.69
0.38
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.80
0.20
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.43
0.62
0.50
0.77
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.81
0.56
0.71
1.21
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.17
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.23-2.3%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.79+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.14-6.5%
Under 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.66+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
SBO
2.19
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
SBO
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 4.60-7.1%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.16+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Groningen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
58.0%
@ 1.47-5.3%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.54+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.48
Groningen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 3.23-10.3%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.30+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Groningen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 8.05-7.2%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.04+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.5%
@ 2.48-0.1%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.50+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
Unibet
2.45
Under
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.6%
@ 8.68-2.1%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.70
Unibet
8.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 36.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.92
0.77
0.71
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
1.20
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.90
0.75
0.62
0.85
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.81
1.38
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.42
0.50
1.67
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.83
1.00
1.20
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.4%
@ 1.13-1.2%
Under 0.5
18.6%
@ 5.38+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.60
Unibet
5.40
Superbet
5.35
Betano
5.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.2%
@ 1.67-6.6%
Under 1.5
50.8%
@ 2.11+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.4%
@ 3.05-10.0%
Under 2.5
79.6%
@ 1.34+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.25
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Groningen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.8%
@ 1.31-6.7%
Under
36.2%
@ 3.15+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Under
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Groningen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 2.44-13.2%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.49+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Groningen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 5.53-9.6%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.11+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 2.05+0.0%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.69-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.66
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 6.15-2.3%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.09+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.25
Under
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.88-3.5%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.09
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.0%
1.26
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
1.30
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-3.8%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
79.7%
1.12
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.34
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.6%
1.17
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.49
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
1.40
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.34
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.7%
1.32
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
70.6%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
+11.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Groningen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson75%
Thom van Bergen50%
David van der Werff50%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ondrejka33%
Márk Csinger33%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Travis Hernes25%
David van der Werff25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Thom van Bergen0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thom van Bergen50%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Jorg Schreuders25%
Tygo Land25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Wouter Prins0%
David van der Werff0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thom van Bergen75%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson25%
Tika de Jonge25%
David van der Werff25%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Fortuna Sittard
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Édouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Édouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Édouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Édouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Groningen's squad is €16m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€32m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Groningen's attack is €6m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€12m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Groningen's midfield is €2m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€6m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Groningen's defence is €8m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€14m vs €7m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur