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Guimaraes vs AVS Result & Analysis

Date: 17/12/2025
Time: 20:00
Final 0-1
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Vs
60%
21%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
AVS
AVS
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Guimaraes’ attacking form is a bright spot, with an average of 2.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while AVS struggles away, averaging just 0.57 goals and conceding four. The model therefore favours a home win, assigning a 60% chance, a 21% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of an AVS victory. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Guimaraes, a 9.3% probability. Recent form offers a narrative: Guimaraes come off a win, AVS a draw, but the numbers still lean heavily to the home side. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Under 6.5 (92.2%), Home +2 handicap (91.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.4% miss), Over 1.5 (88.8% miss), Away under 2.5 goals (85.5%), and Under 5.5 (83.6%).

Results analysis

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite Guimaraes failed to deliver a win, with AVS snatching a 1-0 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 60% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away triumph. The model’s other selections performed unevenly: Under 7.5, Away under 3.5 goals, Under 6.5, Home +2 handicap, and Away under 2.5 goals all hit, each with probabilities of 96.7%, 95.6%, 92.2%, 91.7%, and 85.5% respectively. The remaining picks - Home over 0.5 goals, Over 1.5, and Under 5.5 - missed, with chances of 90.4%, 88.8%, and 83.6%. The match saw Guimaraes, after a win, falter against a struggling away side that had drawn its last game.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Guimaraes win✗ Miss
59.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AVS win✓ Hit
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GuimaraesGuimaraes

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L21W10W02L03L10W40W40W00D10WA·ALV28/09H·SAN04/10A·UNI19/10A·FAM26/10H·BEN01/11A·TON08/11H·MOR22/11H·AVS28/11H·GIL08/12A·RIO13/12
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.171.601.131.001.20
vs Stronger (6)0.332.170.332.330.332.00
vs Similar (14)1.211.291.571.140.861.43
vs Weaker (10)2.000.402.400.401.600.40
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-703L13L70W02L22D11D00D04L12L06LA·EST27/09H·ALV04/10A·AD 18/10A·SAN25/10H·TON02/11H·GIL09/11H·ACA22/11A·GUI28/11H·RIO06/12A·SPO13/12
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.972.230.801.731.132.73
vs Stronger (11)0.643.360.752.250.574.00
vs Similar (19)1.161.580.821.551.621.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.7%
3-1
7.3%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
3-0
5.6%
1-0
5.3%
1-2
5.2%
Guimaraes goals ↓
AVS goals →
01234
03.4%2.6%2.2%1.0%0.3%
15.3%8.7%5.2%2.3%0.7%
27.1%9.3%6.1%2.7%0.9%
35.6%7.3%4.8%2.1%0.7%
43.3%4.3%2.8%1.2%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guimaraes goals (down), columns = AVS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sporting CP
3.00
Benfica
2.57
Rebordosa
2.40
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
Cinfães
2.25
Lusitânia
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
Farense
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Anadia
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
O Elvas
2.00
Operário
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Santa Clara
2.00
Brito
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
Rio Ave
1.67
Estrela
1.50
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Academica
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Alpendorada
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estoril
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Nacional
0.00
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Guimaraes is 0.50 points better than AVS in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Sporting CP
2.57
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Cinfães
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Farense
2.33
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
FC Porto
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Rio Ave
1.83
Lusitânia
1.75
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Estrela
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
O Elvas
1.40
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.29
Vila Meã
1.29
Portalegrense
1.29
Correlhã
1.29
Vitória de Sernache
1.29
Florgrade
1.29
Nazarenos
1.29
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.29
Valenciano
1.29
Castro Daire
1.29
Uniao Nogueirense
1.29
Espinho
1.29
Naval 1893
1.29
Rebordelo
1.29
Portimonense B
1.29
Ançã
1.29
Resende
1.29
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.29
Silves
1.29
Vidago
1.29
AD Fornos Algodres
1.29
Vila Caíz
1.29
Angrense
1.29
Charneca Caparica
1.29
Oriental Lisboa
1.29
Sourense
1.29
Celoricense
1.29
AD Portomosense
1.29
Alcochetense
1.29
Fayal
1.29
Gouveia
1.29
Samora Correir
1.29
Ribeira Brava
1.29
Aparecida GO
1.29
Mirandela
1.29
Estrela Calheta
1.29
SC Celoricense
1.29
Almodôvar
1.29
Mosteirense
1.29
Águias do Moradal
1.29
Urzelinense
1.29
Celeirós
1.29
Quarteirense
1.29
AR São Martinho
1.29
Carregal
1.29
Juventude Évora
1.29
Fazendense
1.29
Pontassolense
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Tirsense
1.14
Academico Viseu
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Academica
1.00
Tondela
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Monção
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Estoril
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Guimaraes and AVS are level in goals scored per game (both 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Estoril
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Academica
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Brito
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Benfica
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
Santa Clara
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
Academico Viseu
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
FC Porto
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Feirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Machico
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Alpendorada
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Arouca
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Anadia
1.67
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.82
Vila Meã
1.82
Portalegrense
1.82
Correlhã
1.82
Vitória de Sernache
1.82
Florgrade
1.82
Nazarenos
1.82
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.82
Valenciano
1.82
Castro Daire
1.82
Uniao Nogueirense
1.82
Espinho
1.82
Naval 1893
1.82
Rebordelo
1.82
Portimonense B
1.82
Ançã
1.82
Resende
1.82
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.82
Silves
1.82
Vidago
1.82
AD Fornos Algodres
1.82
Vila Caíz
1.82
Angrense
1.82
Charneca Caparica
1.82
Oriental Lisboa
1.82
Sourense
1.82
Celoricense
1.82
AD Portomosense
1.82
Alcochetense
1.82
Fayal
1.82
Gouveia
1.82
Samora Correir
1.82
Ribeira Brava
1.82
Aparecida GO
1.82
Mirandela
1.82
Estrela Calheta
1.82
SC Celoricense
1.82
Almodôvar
1.82
Mosteirense
1.82
Águias do Moradal
1.82
Urzelinense
1.82
Celeirós
1.82
Quarteirense
1.82
AR São Martinho
1.82
Carregal
1.82
Juventude Évora
1.82
Fazendense
1.82
Pontassolense
1.82
Amarante
2.00
Farense
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Leça
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Estrela
4.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
Guimaraes is 0.50 goals better than AVS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

GuimaraesGuimaraes

For 5.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.0

🚩 Corners

1206684733436459351352312121079912685A·RIOH·GILH·AVSA·TONH·BENA·FAMH·SANA·ALVH·SC A·EST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

90454511344214542329914839452A·RIOH·GILH·AVSA·TONH·BENA·FAMH·SANA·ALVH·SC A·EST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.2 · Total 27.9

⚠️ Fouls

340151515171114111412111420171117151415111030322525233428322921A·RIOH·GILH·AVSA·TONH·BENA·FAMH·SANA·ALVH·SC A·EST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AVSAVS

For 3.0 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.4

🚩 Corners

1401831137145348566215191410581251236A·SPOH·RIOA·GUIH·GILH·TONA·SANH·ALVA·ESTH·BENA·EST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

130217611544113234112531316825727A·SPOH·RIOA·GUIH·GILH·TONA·SANH·ALVA·ESTH·BENA·EST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.1

⚠️ Fouls

3509111616141112191817151016620111711111120322531352522312822A·SPOH·RIOA·GUIH·GILH·TONA·SANH·ALVA·ESTH·BENA·EST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

GuimaraesGuimaraes

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.810.39.35.05.14.928.227.329.2
vs Stronger (9)10.39.211.86.17.24.826.925.229.0
vs Similar (25)9.410.08.95.65.45.729.529.329.8
vs Weaker (16)10.211.68.73.63.73.426.725.628.0
% over line52%61%43%68%60%76%96%96%96%
% under line48%39%57%32%40%24%4%4%4%
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.98.09.94.95.84.027.729.026.4
vs Stronger (17)8.56.810.04.85.24.326.227.025.6
vs Similar (33)9.28.69.95.06.13.928.630.126.9
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line41%26%57%68%79%58%85%91%78%
% under line59%74%43%32%21%42%15%9%22%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.9
Portimonense
11.7
Vizela
11.1
Academico Viseu
10.9
Vilaverdense
10.8
Oliveirense
10.8
União de Leiria
10.8
Farense
10.7
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Chaves
10.5
Nacional
10.3
Famalicao
10.3
Arouca
10.2
Rio Ave
10.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Guimaraes
10.0
Felgueiras 1932
9.8
Torreense
9.8
Benfica
9.6
Feirense
9.5
Tondela
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Estrela
9.3
Casa Pia
9.2
Sporting CP
9.2
SC Braga
9.1
Maritimo
9.0
GIL Vicente
8.9
Pacos Ferreira
8.9
Estoril
8.9
AVS
8.7
FC Porto
8.7
Leixoes
8.6
Mafra
8.5
Santa Clara
8.3
Alverca
8.2
Moreirense
8.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.6
Felgueiras 1932
6.4
Pacos Ferreira
6.3
Vizela
5.9
Leixoes
5.9
FC Porto
5.9
Oliveirense
5.8
Chaves
5.8
Torreense
5.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.8
Famalicao
5.8
Farense
5.7
Casa Pia
5.7
Maritimo
5.7
União de Leiria
5.7
Sporting CP
5.6
Arouca
5.5
Guimaraes
5.4
Portimonense
5.4
SC Covilha
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Estrela
5.4
AVS
5.3
Moreirense
5.2
Feirense
5.2
Rio Ave
5.2
Academico Viseu
5.1
Tondela
5.1
Penafiel
5.1
Benfica
5.0
GIL Vicente
5.0
Alverca
4.8
Vilaverdense
4.8
SC Braga
4.6
Estoril
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Mafra
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.6
Estrela
31.0
Moreirense
30.0
Santa Clara
29.8
Farense
28.8
Estoril
28.6
Vilaverdense
28.5
SC Covilha
28.2
GIL Vicente
28.2
Rio Ave
28.1
Guimaraes
28.1
Casa Pia
27.9
Arouca
27.7
Lusitânia Lourosa
27.5
AVS
27.3
Nacional
27.3
FC Porto
26.9
Sporting CP
26.4
SC Braga
25.3
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Benfica
24.9
Tondela
20.2
Leixoes
18.9
Pacos Ferreira
18.1
Academico Viseu
16.9
Oliveirense
16.8
Portimonense
16.6
União de Leiria
16.6
Alverca
16.5
Maritimo
14.9
Mafra
14.9
Felgueiras 1932
14.5
Feirense
14.2
Vizela
13.7
Penafiel
13.6
Chaves
12.9
Torreense
10.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.1%
Under 3.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.6%
Under 21.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Guimaraes or Draw✗ Miss
80.5%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
19%
covers Guimaraes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes or AVS✓ Hit
79.3%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
19%
covers Guimaraes + AVS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AVS✓ Hit
40.2%
Avg Implied -
60%
21%
19%
covers Draw + AVS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Guimaraes, so a minus line means Guimaraes give that many goals of a start and AVS receive them. At -1, Guimaraes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Guimaraes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Guimaraes)Actual: AVS
Guimaraes -2
21.1%
Draw -2
17.9%
AVS +2
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Guimaraes)Actual: AVS
Guimaraes -1
39.0%
Draw -1
20.8%
AVS +1
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Guimaraes)Actual: Draw
Guimaraes +1
80.5%
Draw +1
11.2%
AVS -1
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Guimaraes)Actual: Guimaraes
Guimaraes +2
91.7%
Draw +2
5.5%
AVS -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GuimaraesGuimaraes

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D01L00D00D10W30W00D10WA·ALV28/09H·SAN04/10A·UNI19/10A·FAM26/10H·BEN01/11A·TON08/11H·MOR22/11H·AVS28/11H·GIL08/12A·RIO13/12
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.470.800.530.270.40
vs Stronger (6)0.170.670.330.670.000.67
vs Similar (14)0.570.570.860.710.290.43
vs Weaker (10)0.700.201.000.200.400.20
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L11D20W00D11D01L00D03L01L03LA·EST27/09H·ALV04/10A·AD 18/10A·SAN25/10H·TON02/11H·GIL09/11H·ACA22/11A·GUI28/11H·RIO06/12A·SPO13/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.130.200.800.401.47
vs Stronger (11)0.361.730.251.000.432.14
vs Similar (19)0.260.790.180.730.380.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GuimaraesGuimaraes

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W10W01L03L10W30W10W00D00DA·ALV28/09H·SAN04/10A·UNI19/10A·FAM26/10H·BEN01/11A·TON08/11H·MOR22/11H·AVS28/11H·GIL08/12A·RIO13/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.800.600.730.80
vs Stronger (6)0.171.500.001.670.331.33
vs Similar (14)0.640.710.710.430.571.00
vs Weaker (10)1.300.201.400.201.200.20
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AVSAVS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D02L50W02L11D10W00D01L11D03LA·EST27/09H·ALV04/10A·AD 18/10A·SAN25/10H·TON02/11H·GIL09/11H·ACA22/11A·GUI28/11H·RIO06/12A·SPO13/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.100.600.930.731.27
vs Stronger (11)0.271.640.501.250.141.86
vs Similar (19)0.890.790.640.821.250.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.596.7%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals95.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.592.2%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap91.7%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals90.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.588.8%-------✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals85.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.583.6%-------✓ Hit
Home or Draw80.5%-------✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap80.5%-------✗ Miss
Home or Away79.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards79.0%-------✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals79.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls78.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards75.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners73.6%-------✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals73.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (22)
€460m
BEN (19)
€288m
SB (35)
€215m
FAM (27)
€109m
GUI (34)
€73m
GV (30)
€61m
EST (26)
€57m
RA (36)
€53m
ALV (32)
€52m
SC (31)
€46m
CP (34)
€34m
ARO (33)
€32m
EST (39)
€29m
MOR (25)
€28m
NAC (32)
€27m
TON (32)
€25m
TOR (32)
€20m
AVS (34)
€19m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
OLI (30)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
PF (24)
€6m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Guimaraes's squad is €54m more valuable than AVS's (€73m vs €19m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (7)
€190m
BEN (6)
€105m
SB (13)
€100m
FAM (11)
€51m
GV (14)
€37m
GUI (12)
€34m
EST (8)
€25m
RA (12)
€21m
ALV (11)
€18m
SC (11)
€17m
NAC (11)
€12m
ARO (11)
€12m
MOR (8)
€10m
CP (11)
€9m
AV (15)
€8m
TON (12)
€7m
EST (15)
€7m
TOR (13)
€6m
MAR (10)
€6m
AVS (12)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
OLI (11)
€3m
PF (10)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
ACA (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Guimaraes's attack is €29m more valuable than AVS's (€34m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEN (6)
€93m
SC (4)
€72m
SB (9)
€46m
GUI (8)
€26m
FAM (5)
€17m
ALV (9)
€13m
CP (7)
€10m
EST (5)
€10m
SC (6)
€10m
ARO (7)
€9m
MOR (6)
€8m
AVS (7)
€7m
EST (7)
€7m
RA (7)
€5m
GV (4)
€5m
TOR (6)
€5m
NAC (8)
€4m
TON (6)
€3m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
OLI (6)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Guimaraes's midfield is €20m more valuable than AVS's (€26m vs €7m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (11)
€198m
BEN (7)
€90m
SB (13)
€69m
FAM (11)
€41m
RA (17)
€26m
ALV (12)
€22m
EST (13)
€22m
GV (12)
€19m
SC (14)
€19m
EST (17)
€15m
CP (16)
€15m
TON (14)
€15m
GUI (14)
€13m
ARO (15)
€11m
MOR (11)
€10m
NAC (13)
€10m
TOR (13)
€9m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
AVS (15)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
OLI (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
PF (12)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Guimaraes's defence is €6m more valuable than AVS's (€13m vs €7m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
GUI wins
0
Draws
1
AVS wins

Head-to-head

Guimaraes vs AVS · H/A from GUI
DateH/AGameScore
28/11/25HGUI Vs AVS4-0
01/02/25HGUI Vs AVS2-0
25/08/24AAVS Vs GUI1-0

GuimaraesGuimaraes

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/25ARio Ave Vs GUI0-1
08/12/25HGUI Vs GIL Vicente0-0
28/11/25HGUI Vs AVS4-0
22/11/25HGUI Vs Mortágua4-0
08/11/25ATondela Vs GUI0-1
01/11/25HGUI Vs Benfica0-3
26/10/25AFamalicao Vs GUI2-0
19/10/25AUnião Lamas Vs GUI0-1
04/10/25HGUI Vs Santa Clara2-1
28/09/25AAlverca Vs GUI2-0

AVSAVS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/25ASporting CP Vs AVS6-0
06/12/25HAVS Vs Rio Ave1-2
28/11/25AGuimaraes Vs AVS4-0
22/11/25HAVS Vs Academico Viseu0-0
09/11/25HAVS Vs GIL Vicente1-1
02/11/25HAVS Vs Tondela2-2
25/10/25ASanta Clara Vs AVS2-0
18/10/25AAD Fornos Algodres Vs AVS0-7
04/10/25HAVS Vs Alverca1-3
27/09/25AEstrela Vs AVS3-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.58
HomeWLWWD1.88
AwayLWLWW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals2.582.842.32
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %48%56%40%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.421.761.08
Conceded1.161.081.24
BTTS42%40%44%
Clean Sheet36%48%24%
Corners9.8310.309.35
Cards5.465.575.35
AVS
AVS
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL0.74
HomeLDDDL0.71
AwayLWLLL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%12%15%
AVG goals2.802.423.15
Over 1.5 %78%71%85%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %34%21%46%
Scored0.900.791.00
Conceded1.901.622.15
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners8.937.969.91
Cards5.336.094.57

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC PortoFC Porto3488
82%
2.6
6618+48
2.5
71%
56%
24%
8.6
35%
5.5
82%
26.4
71%
0
0001.90.5
55%
2Sporting CPSporting CP3482
74%
2.4
8924+65
3.3
91%
71%
35%
9.9
53%
5.2
62%
25.9
79%
460
190721982.60.7
62%
3BenficaBenfica3480
68%
2.4
7425+49
2.9
88%
71%
32%
10.0
56%
5.3
73%
26.8
74%
288
10593902.20.7
58%
4SC BragaSC Braga3459
47%
1.7
6436+28
2.9
76%
68%
38%
8.4
32%
5.0
79%
23.5
62%
215
10046691.91.1
63%
5FamalicaoFamalicao3456
44%
1.6
4229+13
2.1
53%
38%
24%
10.4
56%
5.1
68%
32.1
94%
109
5117411.20.9
51%
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente3450
38%
1.5
4738+9
2.5
76%
53%
26%
9.5
50%
5.1
67%
28.2
85%
61
375191.41.1
50%
7MoreirenseMoreirense3443
35%
1.3
3749-12
2.5
74%
50%
21%
8.4
35%
4.9
68%
29.2
94%
28
108101.11.4
50%
8GuimaraesGuimaraes3442
35%
1.2
3951-12
2.6
76%
44%
24%
8.4
38%
5.2
74%
29.6
88%
73
3426131.11.5
51%
9AroucaArouca3442
35%
1.2
4764-17
3.3
79%
68%
50%
9.0
44%
5.7
79%
25.9
79%
32
129111.41.9
50%
10EstorilEstoril3439
29%
1.1
5457-3
3.3
76%
62%
53%
9.3
41%
4.9
88%
25.8
82%
57
2510221.61.7
53%
11AlvercaAlverca3439
29%
1.1
3552-17
2.6
76%
50%
24%
8.9
44%
4.9
64%
26.4
71%
52
1813221.01.5
45%
12Santa ClaraSanta Clara3436
26%
1.1
3241-9
2.1
56%
35%
15%
9.0
50%
6.1
85%
29.5
94%
46
1710190.91.2
48%
13Rio AveRio Ave3436
24%
1.1
3557-22
2.7
82%
59%
29%
10.8
68%
5.2
62%
27.4
79%
53
215261.01.7
47%
14NacionalNacional3434
26%
1.0
3745-8
2.4
74%
41%
18%
10.8
68%
5.7
74%
27.2
88%
27
124101.11.3
46%
15Casa PiaCasa Pia3634
19%
0.9
3357-24
2.5
75%
42%
28%
10.0
50%
5.6
83%
29.8
92%
34
910150.91.6
41%
16EstrelaEstrela3430
18%
0.9
3856-18
2.8
74%
53%
38%
9.1
35%
5.6
82%
29.7
97%
29
77151.11.6
47%
17TondelaTondela3428
18%
0.8
2755-28
2.4
68%
50%
29%
9.8
50%
5.4
71%
26.8
82%
25
73150.81.6
44%
18AVSAVS3421
9%
0.6
2767-40
2.8
79%
59%
38%
9.5
47%
5.0
67%
24.7
71%
19
6770.82.0
39%
19TorreenseTorreense21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
11.5
50%
6.5
100%
25.5
100%
20
6590.01.0
60%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →

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