Guimaraes faces SC Braga with the model favouring an away win, a 56% chance versus 19% for home victory and 25% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12% chance. Guimaraes, playing at home against a stronger side, averages zero goals scored and concedes three per match, while Braga, on the road to a weaker opponent, nets 2.69 goals and concedes only 0.85. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (98.8%), Over 21.5 fouls (96.8%), Over 23.5 fouls (92.8%), Over 25.5 fouls (85.9%), Over 2.5 cards (84.6%), Over 1.5 goals (77.7%), and Over 8.5 corners (72.2%). The model’s selections highlight a high likelihood of a busy, high-foul match with plenty of cards and corners.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, SC Braga, was expected to win with a 56% probability, yet the match finished 1-1, a draw that the model incorrectly predicted. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result, extending Guimaraes’ recent form of LWLLL as they came off a defeat, while Braga remained unbeaten in their last five. The model’s selection of “Away win” was wrong. Every suggested pick hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 98.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 96.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 92.8%, Over 25.5 fouls at 85.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 84.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.7%, and Over 8.5 corners at 72.2%. The match delivered a surprising stalemate, defying the predicted outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Guimaraes win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Braga win✗ Miss
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.53
1.14
1.00
1.69
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.57
0.00
3.00
1.40
2.40
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
1.37
1.20
0.80
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.83
2.19
0.69
2.57
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
2.58
0.73
2.46
0.62
2.69
0.85
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
0-1
10.1%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
0-0
7.3%
0-3
6.1%
1-3
5.9%
2-1
5.3%
Guimaraes goals ↓
SC Braga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
10%
10%
6.1%
2.7%
1
5.0%
12%
9.9%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.0%
5.3%
4.8%
2.9%
1.3%
3
1.0%
1.7%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guimaraes goals (down), columns = SC Braga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Guimaraes is 0.44 points worse than SC Braga in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Guimaraes is 0.29 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Guimaraes is 0.09 goals better than SC Braga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Guimaraes
For 3.6 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 15.5 · Total 31.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Braga
For 5.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.7
9.6
3.6
3.1
4.0
32.2
33.0
31.3
vs Stronger (11)
9.1
10.5
8.2
3.4
3.0
3.6
31.9
34.0
30.5
vs Similar (5)
11.8
8.5
15.0
2.4
0.3
5.5
31.0
25.5
36.5
vs Weaker (34)
10.3
11.1
9.5
3.8
3.6
4.0
32.4
33.9
30.9
% over line
59%
65%
52%
58%
52%
64%
90%
90%
90%
% under line
41%
35%
48%
42%
48%
36%
10%
10%
10%
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.9
3.9
4.0
31.1
32.1
29.9
vs Stronger (9)
9.6
8.8
10.7
3.8
3.7
4.0
31.1
28.5
34.7
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (41)
10.6
10.5
10.6
4.0
3.9
4.0
31.1
33.0
29.1
% over line
56%
52%
60%
60%
60%
60%
83%
95%
70%
% under line
44%
48%
40%
40%
40%
40%
17%
5%
30%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Santa Clara
12.7
Chaves
11.0
Benfica
11.0
Sporting CP
10.9
Feirense
10.9
Tondela
10.8
Boavista
10.6
SC Braga
10.4
FC Porto
10.3
Aves
10.2
Moreirense
10.2
Guimaraes
10.1
Portimonense
10.0
Rio Ave
9.9
Belenenses
9.8
Maritimo
9.5
Setubal
9.1
Nacional
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
5.8
Feirense
5.6
Boavista
5.4
Moreirense
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Setubal
5.0
FC Porto
4.9
SC Braga
4.8
Nacional
4.7
Chaves
4.7
Tondela
4.7
Benfica
4.6
Belenenses
4.6
Aves
4.6
Portimonense
4.6
Santa Clara
4.6
Maritimo
4.6
Guimaraes
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
36.1
Feirense
35.6
Rio Ave
33.8
Boavista
32.8
Guimaraes
32.2
Moreirense
32.0
Sporting CP
31.8
Aves
31.7
Portimonense
31.5
Tondela
31.5
FC Porto
31.4
Belenenses
31.3
Maritimo
31.3
SC Braga
31.1
Chaves
30.6
Nacional
30.0
Santa Clara
29.7
Benfica
29.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.5%
Under 9.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.8%
Under 3.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.8%
Under 21.5
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.64
0.50
0.75
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.29
0.00
1.50
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.74
0.60
0.40
1.11
1.11
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
0.69
0.44
1.50
0.21
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
1.19
0.27
0.85
0.46
1.54
0.08
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.29
0.00
1.50
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.63
0.60
0.40
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.50
1.50
0.25
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
1.38
0.46
1.62
0.15
1.15
0.77
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Guimaraes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu25%
Alioune Ndoye25%
Gustavo Silva25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Tony Strata0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Óscar Rivas50%
Gustavo Silva50%
Miguel Nogueira50%
Gonçalo Nogueira25%
Thiago Balieiro25%
Tony Strata25%
Oumar Camara25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Nogueira50%
Tony Strata25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Oumar Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alioune Ndoye75%
Gustavo Silva50%
Samu25%
Tony Strata25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
SC Braga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Rodrigues67%
Pau Víctor50%
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho25%
Vítor Carvalho25%
Pau Víctor25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Diogo Travassos25%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vítor Carvalho25%
Gabriel Silva25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Mario Dorgeles25%
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
Guimaraes's squad is €119m less valuable than SC Braga's (€46m vs €165m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
Guimaraes's attack is €19m less valuable than SC Braga's (€22m vs €41m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
Guimaraes's midfield is €44m less valuable than SC Braga's (€11m vs €56m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
Guimaraes's defence is €56m less valuable than SC Braga's (€12m vs €68m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense