The model favours an away win with a 39 % probability, while the draw sits at 34 % and a home win at 27 %. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28 %. The single most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, carrying a 16.1 % chance. Halmstad, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Kalmar FF, playing away against a similar tier side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.3 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 % with an 8 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 % with a 2 % edge), Under 5.5 (98.6 % with an 8 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 % with an 8 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 % with a 4 % edge). Both teams have recently drawn their last matches, a 1-1 for Halmstad and a 0-0 for Kalmar, hinting at cautious play.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Halmstad edged Kalmar FF 1-0, snapping the home side’s 2-game winning streak and denying the pre-match favourite, the away win, which had a 39% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-0 confirmed a home win, contrary to the 39% away win odds. All of the model’s suggested picks were correct: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), and Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%). The match finished with a single goal, keeping the total below the most likely 2-goal outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Halmstad win✓ Hit
27.1%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.36
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.52
Dafabet
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Draw✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.43
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
10Bet
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Kalmar FF win✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied 45.3% · @ 2.05
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.09
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
SBO
2.06
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Halmstad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.53
0.64
1.50
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.71
0.40
1.40
0.89
1.89
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.38
0.78
1.56
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.30
1.86
1.29
1.44
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.75
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.13
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Halmstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.24-16.9%
Under 1.5
41.6%
@ 3.76+16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.01
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.0%
@ 1.81-22.0%
Under 2.5
70.0%
@ 1.96+22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.8%
@ 2.95-18.7%
Under 3.5
87.2%
@ 1.36+18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.8%
@ 1.66-17.0%
No
61.2%
@ 2.09+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.66
No
BetVictor
2.15
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.1%@ 10.46+11.8%
1-1
14.7%@ 6.21+7.5%
0-1
14.4%@ 7.65+8.6%
1-0 ✓
11.1%@ 10.06+6.7%
0-2
8.4%@ 9.84+3.9%
1-2
7.1%@ 8.05+1.6%
2-1
5.6%@ 10.58+1.4%
2-0
5.3%@ 16.80+2.6%
Halmstad goals ↓
Kalmar FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
14%
8.4%
3.0%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
5.3%
5.6%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Halmstad goals (down), columns = Kalmar FF goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Malmo FF
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
Halmstad is 0.42 points worse than Kalmar FF in terms of average points per game (0.58 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
Halmstad is 0.42 goals worse than Kalmar FF in terms of goals scored per game (0.68 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
Halmstad is 0.32 goals worse than Kalmar FF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.84 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Halmstad is 6.3 percentage points worse than Kalmar FF in terms of average possession (41% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Halmstad
For 5.0 · Against 7.1 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kalmar FF
For 3.2 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Halmstad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.1
11.2
2.9
3.0
2.9
23.1
23.9
22.3
vs Stronger (30)
10.2
9.9
10.5
3.3
2.7
3.7
23.1
22.9
23.2
vs Similar (20)
10.0
7.9
12.7
2.5
3.4
1.5
23.1
25.3
20.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
45%
65%
42%
43%
41%
60%
59%
61%
% under line
44%
55%
35%
58%
57%
59%
40%
41%
39%
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.6
9.3
2.1
2.2
2.0
23.1
22.6
23.7
vs Stronger (4)
8.8
10.0
7.5
1.8
2.0
1.5
23.0
22.0
24.0
vs Similar (37)
9.8
10.1
9.5
2.3
2.4
2.1
23.7
23.9
23.4
vs Weaker (9)
12.0
14.0
10.0
1.8
1.5
2.0
20.2
15.5
25.0
% over line
52%
56%
47%
26%
25%
27%
58%
50%
67%
% under line
48%
44%
53%
74%
75%
73%
42%
50%
33%
This opponent (Halmstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.5
Sirius
11.1
BK Hacken
10.8
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
Orgryte IS
10.6
Djurgardens IF
10.5
AIK Stockholm
10.4
Gais
10.3
Degerfors IF
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.1
Vasteras SK FK
10.1
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Halmstad
10.0
Mjallby AIF
10.0
Hammarby FF
10.0
Malmo FF
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
IFK Goteborg
4.3
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.9
Malmo FF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.7
IF Brommapojkarna
3.7
Hammarby FF
3.6
Halmstad
3.6
Vasteras SK FK
3.6
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Sirius
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Orgryte IS
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Malmo FF
25.9
Djurgardens IF
25.7
IFK Goteborg
25.7
Degerfors IF
25.4
Sirius
25.4
Gais
25.1
Vasteras SK FK
25.0
Mjallby AIF
25.0
BK Hacken
24.7
Hammarby FF
24.6
IF Brommapojkarna
24.3
IF Elfsborg
24.0
AIK Stockholm
23.9
Halmstad
23.7
Kalmar FF
23.5
Orgryte IS
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.2%
@ 1.52-9.5%
Under 9.5
48.8%
@ 2.35+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Unibet
1.49
Under
Superbet
2.55
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.34
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.27
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.0%
Under 21.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Halmstad or Draw✓ Hit
61.1%
Avg Implied 54.1% · @ 1.73
Edge
+7.1%
27%
34%
39%
covers Halmstad + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
SBO
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Halmstad or Kalmar FF✓ Hit
65.9%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-7.7%
27%
34%
39%
covers Halmstad + Kalmar FF
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Kalmar FF✗ Miss
72.9%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.6%
27%
34%
39%
covers Draw + Kalmar FF
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Halmstad over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.1%
@ 1.36-11.3%
Under
42.9%
@ 2.94+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.96
Superbet
2.95
Halmstad over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.8%
@ 2.75-13.1%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.41+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.78
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Halmstad over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 6.81-8.2%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.08+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Halmstad over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 16.67-4.6%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Kalmar FF over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.7%
@ 1.19-12.0%
Under
34.3%
@ 4.16+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.05
Kalmar FF over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.9%
@ 1.97-18.3%
Under
71.1%
@ 1.77+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Kalmar FF over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 4.09-13.4%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.20+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.16
Marathonbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Kalmar FF over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 9.42-7.6%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.04+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
8.90
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Halmstad, so a minus line means Halmstad give that many goals of a start and Kalmar FF receive them. At -1, Halmstad must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Halmstad win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Halmstad)Actual: Kalmar FF
Halmstad -2
2.3%
@ 17.50-2.9%
Draw -2
7.1%
@ 9.35-2.7%
Kalmar FF +2
90.6%
@ 1.07+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.70
Away
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Handicap -1 (Halmstad)Actual: Draw
Halmstad -1
9.4%
@ 7.38-2.8%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.95-0.4%
Kalmar FF +1
72.9%
@ 1.28+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Handicap +1 (Halmstad)Actual: Halmstad
Halmstad +1
61.1%
@ 1.72+9.2%
Draw +1
22.7%
@ 3.76-1.1%
Kalmar FF -1
16.2%
@ 3.68-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Superbet
3.65
Handicap +2 (Halmstad)Actual: Halmstad
Halmstad +2
83.8%
@ 1.23+10.7%
Draw +2
11.3%
@ 5.75-4.4%
Kalmar FF -2
4.9%
@ 7.96-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Unibet
5.30
Away
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Halmstad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.36
0.43
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.71
0.20
0.40
0.56
0.89
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.79
0.71
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.61
0.73
0.73
0.58
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Halmstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.8%
@ 1.35-0.3%
Under 0.5
31.2%
@ 3.01+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.23
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 2.62-5.2%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.44+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.68
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
10Bet
2.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.2%
@ 6.46-5.1%
Under 2.5
90.8%
@ 1.08+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Halmstad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.6%
@ 2.28-1.0%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.56+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Halmstad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 7.82-2.8%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Halmstad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 26.50-2.3%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
10Bet
26.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Kalmar FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 1.84-7.0%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.87+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Kalmar FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 5.38-6.2%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.12+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Kalmar FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 14.67-4.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Halmstad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.29
1.07
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.81
0.33
1.11
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.07
0.57
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.52
1.27
0.27
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Halmstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.21-2.0%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 4.04+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.01-7.7%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.73+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 4.18-7.8%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.19+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.33
1xBet
4.15
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Halmstad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.5%
@ 1.89-3.6%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.82+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Halmstad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 5.44-3.8%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.11+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Halmstad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.33-3.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Kalmar FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.2%
@ 1.57-6.7%
Under
47.8%
@ 2.26+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.20
Kalmar FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 3.79-5.5%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.22+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Kalmar FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 9.50-6.7%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.5%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
+12.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.2%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
+18.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.17
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.22
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
79.2%
1.41
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+13.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.0%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.17
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.9%
1.29
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
72.9%
1.28
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
-
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
1.56
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.51
+12.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
71.1%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
+18.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Halmstad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Otso Liimatta22%
Rocco Ascone17%
Ludvig Arvidsson12%
Hussein Carneil11%
Omar Faraj11%
Pascal Gregor0%
Andre Boman0%
Gabriel Wallentin0%
Joel Allansson0%
Tim Rönning0%
Rami Kaib0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Filip Schyberg0%
Erko Tougjas0%
Gustav Friberg0%
Aleksander Nilsson0%
Emmanuel Yeboah0%
Marvin Illary0%
Oliver Kapsimalis0%
Malte Persson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rami Kaib35%
Filip Schyberg33%
Gustav Friberg25%
Otso Liimatta22%
Aleksander Nilsson22%
Rocco Ascone17%
Niilo Mäenpää14%
Erko Tougjas13%
Gabriel Wallentin8%
Oliver Kapsimalis7%
Pascal Gregor6%
Andre Boman6%
Tim Rönning6%
Hussein Carneil6%
Joel Allansson5%
Omar Faraj5%
Emmanuel Yeboah0%
Ludvig Arvidsson0%
Marvin Illary0%
Malte Persson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hussein Carneil11%
Ludvig Arvidsson6%
Rami Kaib6%
Marvin Illary6%
Andre Boman6%
Joel Allansson5%
Malte Persson5%
Pascal Gregor0%
Gabriel Wallentin0%
Tim Rönning0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Filip Schyberg0%
Rocco Ascone0%
Omar Faraj0%
Erko Tougjas0%
Gustav Friberg0%
Otso Liimatta0%
Aleksander Nilsson0%
Emmanuel Yeboah0%
Oliver Kapsimalis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Hussein Carneil33%
Omar Faraj26%
Ludvig Arvidsson12%
Rami Kaib6%
Rocco Ascone6%
Malte Persson5%
Pascal Gregor0%
Andre Boman0%
Gabriel Wallentin0%
Joel Allansson0%
Tim Rönning0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Filip Schyberg0%
Erko Tougjas0%
Gustav Friberg0%
Otso Liimatta0%
Aleksander Nilsson0%
Emmanuel Yeboah0%
Marvin Illary0%
Oliver Kapsimalis0%
Kalmar FF
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Charlie Rosenqvist37%
Aboubacar Keita33%
Rony Jansson21%
Carl Gustafsson18%
Anthony Olusanya17%
Charles Sagoe Jr.16%
Achraf Dari11%
Abdussalam Magashy7%
Melker Hallberg0%
Lars Sætra0%
Robert Gojani0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Victor Larsson0%
Alexander Almqvist0%
Malcolm Stolt0%
Emeka Nnamani0%
Sivert Engh Overby0%
Marius Söderbäck0%
Nassef Chourak0%
Jakob Kindberg0%
Vilmer Tyren0%
Zakarias Ravik0%
Fabian Bjorklund0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alexander Almqvist20%
Lars Sætra18%
Vilmer Tyren12%
Victor Larsson12%
Achraf Dari11%
Nassef Chourak11%
Melker Hallberg11%
Charlie Rosenqvist11%
Carl Gustafsson9%
Anthony Olusanya8%
Rony Jansson7%
Robert Gojani6%
Aboubacar Keita0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Abdussalam Magashy0%
Malcolm Stolt0%
Emeka Nnamani0%
Charles Sagoe Jr.0%
Sivert Engh Overby0%
Marius Söderbäck0%
Jakob Kindberg0%
Zakarias Ravik0%
Fabian Bjorklund0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Charles Sagoe Jr.26%
Rony Jansson14%
Robert Gojani12%
Melker Hallberg11%
Marius Söderbäck11%
Abdussalam Magashy7%
Charlie Rosenqvist5%
Achraf Dari0%
Lars Sætra0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Aboubacar Keita0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Carl Gustafsson0%
Victor Larsson0%
Alexander Almqvist0%
Malcolm Stolt0%
Emeka Nnamani0%
Sivert Engh Overby0%
Nassef Chourak0%
Jakob Kindberg0%
Vilmer Tyren0%
Zakarias Ravik0%
Fabian Bjorklund0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charles Sagoe Jr.21%
Anthony Olusanya17%
Aboubacar Keita17%
Carl Gustafsson9%
Victor Larsson6%
Nassef Chourak6%
Melker Hallberg5%
Charlie Rosenqvist5%
Achraf Dari0%
Lars Sætra0%
Robert Gojani0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Alexander Almqvist0%
Abdussalam Magashy0%
Malcolm Stolt0%
Emeka Nnamani0%
Rony Jansson0%
Sivert Engh Overby0%
Marius Söderbäck0%
Jakob Kindberg0%
Vilmer Tyren0%
Zakarias Ravik0%
Fabian Bjorklund0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Halmstad's squad is €2m less valuable than Kalmar FF's (€8m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Halmstad and Kalmar FF have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
Halmstad's midfield is €1m less valuable than Kalmar FF's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Halmstad and Kalmar FF have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
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Sirius
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
IF Elfsborg
BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg
Mjallby AIF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS