Hamilton Academical’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 0-0 draw at East Fife, fuels optimism for a home victory against Elgin. The model’s probabilities show a 52 % chance of a Hamilton win, a 24 % draw and a 24 % chance for Elgin, making a home win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.2 goals, the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.8 % probability. Hamilton’s home form sees them scoring 0.25 goals per game while conceding 1.75 against similar opposition, whereas Elgin’s away record shows 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls (100 %), Under 23.5 fouls (100 %), Under 21.5 fouls (miss), Under 19.5 fouls (99.8 % miss), Under 7.5 (98.2 % hit), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8 % hit), Under 6.5 (95.3 % hit) and Home +2 handicap (89.6 % hit). The model’s selection favours a Hamilton win.
Results analysis
Hamilton Academical’s unbeaten run extended as they thumped Elgin 5-0, a result that matched the model’s pick of a home win and its 52 % probability. The favoured outcome arrived, confirming the model’s accuracy. The model’s selection of Under 25.5 fouls hit, as did Under 23.5 fouls, Under 7.5, Away under 3.5 goals, Under 6.5 and Home +2 handicap. Under 21.5 fouls, Under 19.5 fouls, and Under 7.5 missed, while the 7.5-foul pick hit. Each probability was expressed as a percentage: 100 % for the first two, 99.8 % for Under 19.5 fouls, 98.2 % for Under 7.5, 95.8 % for Away under 3.5 goals, 95.3 % for Under 6.5 and 89.6 % for Home +2 handicap.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hamilton Academical win✓ Hit
52.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hamilton Academical
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
0.77
1.92
0.94
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
1.62
0.25
1.75
0.69
1.54
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.17
2.00
1.67
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.67
1.50
1.62
1.43
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
2.50
1.40
3.20
1.00
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.60
1.25
1.55
0.91
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.9%
Under 2.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
4.9%
Hamilton Academical goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.1%
3.2%
1.4%
0.4%
1
6.7%
11%
6.3%
2.7%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.6%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.9%
6.3%
4.0%
1.7%
0.6%
4
2.4%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hamilton Academical goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
Partick
2.50
ST Johnstone
2.40
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Motherwell
2.29
ST Mirren
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Celtic
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Rangers
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Cove Rangers
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Queen's Park
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Inverness CT
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Clyde
1.25
Stranraer
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Montrose
0.75
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Edinburgh City
0.25
Annan Athletic
0.25
Elgin
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Hamilton Academical is 0.75 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
ST Johnstone
3.00
Celtic
3.00
Falkirk
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
Ross County
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Rangers
2.33
Queen's Park
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Inverness CT
2.25
Partick
2.17
Morton
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Motherwell
1.57
Arbroath
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Cove Rangers
1.25
Spartans
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Forfar
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Elgin
0.50
Dumbarton
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Stirling
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Hamilton Academical is 0.25 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
ST Johnstone
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Ayr Utd
1.00
Partick
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Celtic
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Queen's Park
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Forfar
1.50
Morton
1.60
Rangers
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dumbarton
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Clyde
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Stirling
2.25
Raith Rovers
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Hamilton Academical is 3.00 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 4.75).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hamilton Academical
For 3.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 4.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamilton Academical
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
9.0
-
9.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.0
-
9.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
9.0
-
9.0
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
2%
0%
4%
0%
-
0%
% under line
100%
-
100%
98%
100%
96%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.1
10.7
3.1
3.2
3.0
22.5
21.8
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
9.8
8.2
2.3
2.5
2.1
23.1
22.8
23.4
vs Weaker (31)
10.9
10.2
11.6
3.6
3.7
3.5
22.3
21.4
23.2
% over line
61%
58%
63%
44%
52%
35%
58%
53%
63%
% under line
39%
42%
37%
56%
48%
65%
42%
47%
37%
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queen's Park
12.0
ST Mirren
11.2
Morton
11.0
Stirling
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Hibernian
10.8
Celtic
10.7
Dumbarton
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.4
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Rangers
10.4
Stranraer
10.4
Elgin
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Livingston
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Falkirk
9.9
Dundee
9.8
Clyde
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Inverness CT
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Dunfermline
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Peterhead
9.0
Hamilton Academical
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Montrose
8.4
Motherwell
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.9
Aberdeen
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Morton
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Partick
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Clyde
4.3
Livingston
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
ST Johnstone
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Celtic
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
East Fife
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Hamilton Academical
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.4
East Kilbride
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Rangers
25.8
Aberdeen
25.7
Stenhousemuir
25.2
Livingston
25.0
Falkirk
24.5
Kilmarnock
24.4
Forfar
24.1
Edinburgh City
23.9
Heart Of Midlothian
23.5
East Fife
22.8
Elgin
22.7
Hibernian
22.6
Kelty Hearts
22.5
ST Johnstone
22.4
Montrose
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Stranraer
22.1
Clyde
22.0
ST Mirren
22.0
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
Morton
21.8
Celtic
21.7
Inverness CT
21.6
Dunfermline
21.3
Ross County
21.0
Cove Rangers
20.9
Arbroath
20.8
Stirling
20.8
Spartans
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
18.0
Hamilton Academical
9.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.6%
Under 9.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
100.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hamilton Academical or Draw✓ Hit
75.9%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Hamilton Academical + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical or Elgin✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Hamilton Academical + Elgin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Elgin✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Draw + Elgin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hamilton Academical, so a minus line means Hamilton Academical give that many goals of a start and Elgin receive them. At -1, Hamilton Academical must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hamilton Academical win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hamilton Academical)Actual: Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical -2
14.7%
Draw -2
16.1%
Elgin +2
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hamilton Academical)Actual: Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical -1
30.7%
Draw -1
21.3%
Elgin +1
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hamilton Academical)Actual: Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical +1
75.9%
Draw +1
13.7%
Elgin -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hamilton Academical)Actual: Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical +2
89.6%
Draw +2
7.0%
Elgin -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.38
1.00
0.53
0.41
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.57
0.12
0.88
0.46
0.38
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.69
0.50
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.55
0.55
0.27
0.78
0.89
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hamilton Academical
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.00
0.38
0.92
0.41
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.19
1.05
0.12
0.88
0.23
1.15
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.81
1.12
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.50
0.40
2.20
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 19.5 fouls
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
SJ (26)
€5m
PAR (22)
€3m
RC (26)
€2m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
DUN (10)
€3m
SJ (9)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
LIV (12)
€2m
RC (9)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
PAR (7)
€1m
SJ (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
RC (5)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
RC (12)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
HA wins
0
Draws
0
ELG wins
Head-to-head
Hamilton Academical vs Elgin · H/A from HA
Date
H/A
Game
Score
No games.
Hamilton Academical
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
21/07/26
A
Kilmarnock Vs HA
1-0
18/07/26
H
HA Vs Raith Rovers
1-1
11/07/26
A
Peterhead Vs HA
0-1
15/05/26
H
HA Vs Clyde
4-3
12/05/26
A
Clyde Vs HA
1-1
09/05/26
H
HA Vs Forfar
2-1
05/05/26
A
Forfar Vs HA
1-3
29/11/25
A
Airdrie United Vs HA
4-0
26/07/25
H
HA Vs Dumbarton
0-1
22/07/25
A
Dunfermline Vs HA
2-1
Elgin
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
18/07/26
H
ELG Vs Kilmarnock
0-1
14/07/26
H
ELG Vs Peterhead
1-3
11/07/26
A
Raith Rovers Vs ELG
3-1
02/05/26
H
ELG Vs Stranraer
0-1
25/04/26
A
Spartans Vs ELG
1-1
18/04/26
A
Stirling Vs ELG
2-2
11/04/26
H
ELG Vs Annan Athletic
0-3
04/04/26
A
Forfar Vs ELG
2-1
28/03/26
H
ELG Vs Clyde
2-0
24/03/26
H
ELG Vs Forfar
2-0
📊 15. Overall Statistics
Hamilton Academical
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DWWDL
1.18
Home
LLWWD
1.35
Away
LWDWL
1.04
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
34%
39%
30%
AVG goals
2.84
2.91
2.78
Over 1.5 %
76%
78%
74%
Over 2.5 %
60%
65%
56%
Over 3.5 %
32%
35%
30%
Scored
1.16
1.22
1.11
Conceded
1.68
1.70
1.67
BTTS
48%
48%
48%
Clean Sheet
20%
22%
19%
Corners
9.00
-
9.00
Cards
3.00
-
3.00
Elgin
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DLLLL
1.18
Home
WLLLL
1.44
Away
WLDDL
0.87
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
32%
44%
17%
AVG goals
3.26
3.37
3.13
Over 1.5 %
88%
85%
91%
Over 2.5 %
62%
63%
61%
Over 3.5 %
36%
37%
35%
Scored
1.46
1.70
1.17
Conceded
1.80
1.67
1.96
BTTS
58%
52%
65%
Clean Sheet
22%
33%
9%
Corners
10.39
10.11
10.68
Cards
4.11
4.53
3.68
🏆 16. League Table
Hamilton Academical plays in Scotland - League One
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ross County
East Kilbride
Alloa Athletic
Peterhead
East Fife
Cove Rangers
Montrose
Airdrie United
Queen of the South
Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Kelty Hearts
Spartans
Stirling
Stranraer
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton