Hapoel Beer Sheva are the clear favourites to win, with a 59% chance of triumph, a 24% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of Vikingur Reykjavik taking the victory. The model predicts an average of 2.8 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11.4%. Hapoel Beer Sheva, playing at home against a weaker side, have been scoring 2.11 goals per game and conceding only 0.78, while Vikingur Reykjavik, away against a stronger opponent, have not scored in their last matches and have conceded 4.0 goals on average. The suggested selections are: Over 2.5 cards at 79.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.6% (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 78.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.9%, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.6%.
The win extends Hapoel Beer Sheva’s recent run, as they finished their last match with a 2-1 victory. Vikingur Reykjavik also came off a win, but the home side’s form proved decisive. The final score was 2-0, confirming a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 59% probability, and that call was correct. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.6% probability, hit as well. All other selections were settled, and the outcome matched the model’s expectations. The prediction model delivered a precise forecast, with the favoured result and its key selection both coming through.
Hapoel Beer Sheva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.13 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 1.87 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.55 | 1.18 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 2.16 | 1.11 | 2.11 | 0.78 | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Vikingur Reykjavik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.33 | 1.27 | 2.69 | 0.94 | 1.93 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.67 | 1.67 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 2.67 | 1.19 | 3.10 | 1.00 | 2.27 | 1.36 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Vikingur Reykjavik goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10% | 11% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Vikingur Reykjavik
Hapoel Beer Sheva| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 29.3 | 29.6 | 29.1 |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.9 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 30.0 | 29.0 | 30.9 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 9.1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 28.7 | 30.1 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 50% | 53% | 47% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| % under line | 50% | 47% | 53% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Vikingur Reykjavik| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 27.3 | 27.0 | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 10.0 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 27.3 | 27.0 | 27.5 |
| vs Similar (8) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (38) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 67% | 100% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 8% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 33% | 0% | 50% | 96% | 100% | 92% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Hapoel Beer Sheva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.30 | 1.13 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.73 | 0.36 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.05 | 0.26 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+49pp vs league) | |||||
Vikingur Reykjavik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.05 | 0.43 | 1.10 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Hapoel Beer Sheva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.11 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Vikingur Reykjavik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 0.83 | 1.69 | 0.56 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.33 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.62 | 0.76 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 1.27 | 0.91 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 79.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 78.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/26 | A | 2-1 |
Hapoel Beer Sheva| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 19/05/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 06/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-2 |
Vikingur Reykjavik| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 21/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/06/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/02/26 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | 5.5 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | 16.5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 1.4 | 20% | 20% | 20% | 8.0 | 50% | 7.0 | 100% | 24.5 | 100% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 1.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 12.3 | 67% | 4.3 | 67% | 24.3 | 100% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 5.0 | 0% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.5 | 100% | 44 | 26 | 6 | 12 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 1.8 | 75% | 0% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 50% | 25.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 50% |
| 6 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.3 | 33% | 5.7 | 67% | 21.0 | 0% | 75 | 22 | 27 | 26 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 7 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | 15.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 8 | Sabah FA | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 9.0 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 21.0 | 33% | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Celje | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 40% | 20% | 12.5 | 50% | 6.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Aarhus | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 13.0 | 100% | 4.3 | 67% | 23.7 | 67% | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 1.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 11 | Lyon | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 2.7 | 0% | 26.0 | 67% | 294 | 138 | 77 | 79 | 1.7 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.7 | 0% | 4.3 | 33% | 28.0 | 67% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Kauno Žalgiris | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 9.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 100% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Celtic | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0% | 15.0 | 0% | 154 | 55 | 38 | 60 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 15 | Shamrock Rovers | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 17 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 18 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 9.7 | 67% | 2.7 | 33% | 26.3 | 100% | 59 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 19 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 21.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 11.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 0% | 26.0 | 50% | 97 | 45 | 28 | 24 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 21 | Kairat Almaty | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 41% |
| 22 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 12.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0% | 22.0 | 100% | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 24 | Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 29 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 25 | Saburtalo | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 26 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 27 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 25.0 | 100% | 82 | 35 | 20 | 26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 28 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.0 | 50% | 7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 35% |
| 29 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 30 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 7.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | 31.5 | 100% | 134 | 28 | 48 | 59 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 31 | KI Klaksvik | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 32 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 0.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 33 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 16.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 100% | 29.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 34 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0% | 25.0 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 35 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 36 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0% | 15.0 | 0% | 48 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 37 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 17.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 53 | 21 | 8 | 23 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 60% |
| 38 | Larne | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 4.5 | - |