Harrogate vs Barrow Result & Analysis

The contest between Harrogate and Barrow is a tight one, with the model pointing to an away win as the most probable outcome. Home victory sits at 34%, a draw at 31%, and the visitors at 36%. The expected total of goals is 2.4, so a 2-goal game is the most likely total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance. Harrogate, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, while Barrow on the road averages 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 90.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 89.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.2%, Under 10.5 corners at 82.1%, Under 4.5 cards at 80.4%, Under 3.5 at 78.5%, Under 9.5 corners at 72.4%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.8%. All figures are presented as percentages and no other outcomes are given a win probability.

The upset came early as Harrogate, riding a win in their last five, overturned the pre-match favourite, Barrow, who had been tipped to win with a 36% chance. The final score was 2-1, a home win that left the model’s pick wrong. The model had also called the most likely total of 2 goals, a 28% probability, and the scoreline 1-1 was the most probable at 14.4%. Its suggested picks performed largely as expected: Under 5.5 cards hit at 90.9%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 89.2%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84.2%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 80.4%, Under 3.5 hit at 78.5%, and Over 21.5 fouls hit at 71.8%. The only misses were Under 10.5 corners at 82.1% and Under 9.5 corners at 72.4%.