Harrogate vs Barrow Result & Analysis

The match between Harrogate and Barrow is a tight contest, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The probability of a Harrogate victory sits at 39%, a draw at 30%, and a Barrow win at 31%. The expected total goals for the game is 2.4, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. Harrogate, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Barrow, on the road against a similar side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s suggested selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 95.5%, Under 23.5 fouls at 89.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 86.9%, Under 21.5 fouls at 79.7%, Under 3.5 at 77.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 74.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.6% (though this one is likely to miss), and Over 1.5 at 70.8%. Each pick is listed with its probability, and the overall win probabilities are explicitly stated.

The pre-match favourite, Harrogate, failed to deliver, as Barrow snatched a 0-1 away win. The model had tipped a home win at 39% probability, but the outcome was the opposite, so its call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away victory. The model’s selection of Under 25.5 fouls hit, as did Under 23.5 fouls, Under 5.5 cards, Under 21.5 fouls, Under 3.5, Under 4.5 cards, all with high probabilities of 95.5%, 89.8%, 86.9%, 79.7%, 77.5%, and 74.1% respectively. Under 11.5 corners missed, and Over 1.5 also missed, with probabilities of 74.6% and 70.8%. Harrogate’s recent form shows a win, while Barrow comes off a draw, yet the upset proved the model’s predictions largely inaccurate.