Harrogate vs Gateshead Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 2-1

Harrogate

48%

24%

28%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Gateshead

England: National League

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 13 Player market rates 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Harrogate’s recent 1-3 loss to Aldershot leaves them looking to rebound, while Gateshead, after a 0-1 defeat to Sutton, is also seeking a turnaround. The model predicts a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals, most likely 3 in total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% chance. Harrogate, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.73 conceded; Gateshead, on the road, averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model favours a Home win, with a 48% chance, a Draw at 24%, and an Away win at 28%. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99%), Under 7.5 (97.9% with a 1% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.6% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (94.7% with a 2% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (93% with a 3% edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (90.7% with a 3% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (88.3% with a 3% edge).

Results analysis

Harrogate’s recent form, highlighted by a win that extended their run, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The match finished 2-1, confirming the Home win call and the expected total of 3 goals. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 48% probability and proved right. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 7.5 at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9% (edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.9% (edge 4%), Under 6.5 at 94.7% (edge 1%), Away under 3.5 goals at 94.4%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.2% (edge 2%). All figures appear only once, and the outcome matched the model’s expectations.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Harrogate win✓ Hit

48.3%

Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.59

Edge

-9.4%

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.65

Betano

1.62

Dafabet

1.61

Pinnacle

1.61

Superbet

1.61

Draw✗ Miss

24.1%

Avg Implied 23.0% · @ 3.98

Edge

+1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

4.28

Dafabet

4.20

Superbet

4.15

Bet365

4.10

Betano

4.10

Gateshead win✗ Miss

27.6%

Avg Implied 19.4% · @ 4.73

Edge

+8.2%

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

5.00

Pinnacle

4.87

Unibet

4.80

Dafabet

4.80

BetVictor

4.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Harrogate

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.7

Avg scored

2.1

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.07	1.50	1.00	1.73	1.13	1.27
vs Stronger (7)	0.29	1.86	0.00	1.75	0.67	2.00
vs Similar (22)	1.32	1.32	1.36	1.73	1.27	0.91
vs Weaker (1)	1.00	3.00	-	-	1.00	3.00
Clean sheet %	17% (-9pp vs league)

This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gateshead

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.2

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.60	1.12	1.56	0.86	1.64
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	2.50	0.00	2.00	0.00	3.00
vs Similar (23)	1.04	1.65	1.15	1.62	0.90	1.70
vs Weaker (5)	1.20	1.00	1.50	1.00	1.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	20% (-6pp vs league)

This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

85.5%

@ 1.17+6.3%

Under 1.5

14.5%

@ 4.45-6.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.20

Betano

1.20

BetVictor

1.20

10Bet

1.18

Bet365

1.17

Under

Pinnacle

5.05

Bet365

5.00

Betfair

4.80

Unibet

4.75

10Bet

4.33

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

64.7%

@ 1.59+6.6%

Under 2.5

35.3%

@ 2.22-6.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.68

Superbet

1.65

1xBet

1.62

Betano

1.62

10Bet

1.60

Under

Pinnacle

2.47

Unibet

2.35

Bet365

2.35

Betfair

2.25

Betano

2.25

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

42.7%

@ 2.50+5.5%

Under 3.5

57.3%

@ 1.48-5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.62

BetVictor

2.62

Superbet

2.60

Marathonbet

2.57

Betfair

2.55

Under

Pinnacle

1.60

Bet365

1.53

Unibet

1.53

Betano

1.50

10Bet

1.48

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

65.6%

@ 1.64+9.5%

34.4%

@ 2.10-9.5%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Superbet

1.71

BetVictor

1.70

William Hil

1.67

1xBet

1.66

Betfair

1.65

Bet365

2.20

Unibet

2.18

Betano

2.10

William Hil

2.10

10Bet

2.10

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

10.7%@ 7.16+4.6%

2-1 ✓

9.3%@ 7.18+3.2%

1-2

6.9%@ 13.31+3.6%

2-2

6.6%@ 12.82+3.2%

2-0

6.5%@ 7.77+0.9%

3-1

5.9%@ 10.71+1.9%

1-0

5.9%@ 7.42+0.0%

0-0

4.5%@ 12.60+1.1%

Harrogate goals ↓

	Gateshead goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.5%	4.1%	3.6%	1.7%	0.6%
1	5.9%	11%	6.9%	3.2%	1.2%
2	6.5%	9.3%	6.6%	3.1%	1.1%
3	4.2%	5.9%	4.2%	2.0%	0.7%
4	2.0%	2.8%	2.0%	1.0%	0.3%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Harrogate goals (down), columns = Gateshead goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Barrow

2.18

Harrogate

2.08

Carlisle

2.04

Boreham Wood

1.90

Scunthorpe

1.77

Forest Green

1.74

Southend

1.72

Halifax

1.52

Hartlepool

1.48

Fylde

1.38

Kidderminster

1.38

Woking

1.37

Tamworth

1.35

Boston Utd

1.28

Altrincham

1.24

Wealdstone

1.22

Solihull

1.22

Yeovil

1.11

Eastleigh

1.09

Gateshead

1.09

Sutton

1.02

Aldershot

1.00

Harrogate is 1.00 points better than Gateshead in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.09).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Barrow

2.30

Harrogate

2.20

Boreham Wood

2.00

Carlisle

1.87

Southend

1.77

Forest Green

1.74

Scunthorpe

1.69

Solihull

1.54

Halifax

1.50

Aldershot

1.50

Woking

1.50

Wealdstone

1.48

Fylde

1.45

Kidderminster

1.45

Boston Utd

1.37

Tamworth

1.37

Sutton

1.28

Eastleigh

1.24

Altrincham

1.20

Hartlepool

1.17

Gateshead

1.17

Yeovil

1.04

Harrogate is 1.03 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Barrow

0.92

Harrogate

0.96

Southend

1.02

Carlisle

1.11

Forest Green

1.11

Woking

1.17

Boreham Wood

1.24

Hartlepool

1.28

Scunthorpe

1.35

Altrincham

1.41

Halifax

1.43

Boston Utd

1.46

Fylde

1.46

Kidderminster

1.46

Yeovil

1.48

Tamworth

1.54

Solihull

1.57

Wealdstone

1.65

Sutton

1.72

Eastleigh

1.74

Aldershot

1.89

Gateshead

1.96

Harrogate is 0.99 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.96).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %

Boreham Wood

58%

Wealdstone

57%

Sutton

54%

Aldershot

54%

Forest Green

53%

Southend

52%

Altrincham

52%

Gateshead

50%

Woking

50%

Scunthorpe

49%

Carlisle

49%

Solihull

48%

Halifax

48%

Hartlepool

47%

Yeovil

47%

Eastleigh

41%

Tamworth

38%

Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Harrogate or Draw✓ Hit

72.4%

Avg Implied 80.7% · @ 1.15

Edge

-8.3%

48%

24%

28%

covers Harrogate + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.21

Bet365

1.18

BetVictor

1.18

William Hil

1.17

Superbet

1.16

Harrogate or Gateshead✓ Hit

75.9%

Avg Implied 77.4% · @ 1.19

Edge

-1.5%

48%

24%

28%

covers Harrogate + Gateshead

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.25

Betano

1.22

Bet365

1.22

Superbet

1.21

Betfair

1.20

Draw or Gateshead✗ Miss

51.7%

Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.20

Edge

+9.8%

48%

24%

28%

covers Draw + Gateshead

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

2.38

Betano

2.32

10Bet

2.30

Bet365

2.30

Superbet

2.20

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Harrogate over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

85.3%

@ 1.11+1.4%

Under

14.7%

@ 5.74-1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.13

Superbet

1.11

Bet365

1.11

BetVictor

1.11

Betfair

1.10

Under

Bet365

6.50

Betfair

6.00

1xBet

5.75

Superbet

5.50

BetVictor

5.50

Harrogate over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

57.1%

@ 1.58-1.6%

Under

42.9%

@ 2.23+1.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.65

1xBet

1.62

Superbet

1.61

Betano

1.60

Marathonbet

1.59

Under

Pinnacle

2.49

Unibet

2.30

Betano

2.25

Bet365

2.25

Betfair

2.25

Harrogate over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

30.1%

@ 2.77-3.3%

Under

69.9%

@ 1.38+3.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

3.00

1xBet

2.88

Superbet

2.85

Marathonbet

2.84

Betano

2.75

Under

Pinnacle

1.44

Betano

1.42

Unibet

1.41

Betfair

1.40

Bet365

1.40

Harrogate over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

12.8%

@ 5.59-3.9%

Under

87.2%

@ 1.12+3.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

6.00

Bet365

6.00

Superbet

5.75

Betano

5.20

1xBet

5.00

Under

Betano

1.14

1xBet

1.12

Bet365

1.12

Betfair

1.11

Superbet

1.10

Gateshead over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

75.8%

@ 1.44+11.6%

Under

24.2%

@ 2.58-11.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.48

Betano

1.47

BetVictor

1.47

Bet365

1.44

Marathonbet

1.44

Under

Pinnacle

2.88

Betfair

2.63

Bet365

2.62

Unibet

2.60

Betano

2.57

Gateshead over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

41.5%

@ 3.17+12.2%

Under

58.5%

@ 1.31-12.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

3.30

1xBet

3.26

Bet365

3.25

Superbet

3.25

Marathonbet

3.20

Under

Pinnacle

1.36

Betano

1.34

Bet365

1.33

10Bet

1.30

Betfair

1.30

Gateshead over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

17.1%

@ 8.30+5.9%

Under

82.9%

@ 1.04-5.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

9.00

1xBet

8.60

Betfair

8.50

Marathonbet

8.40

Superbet

8.20

Under

Betano

1.08

Bet365

1.07

Betfair

1.05

Superbet

1.05

1xBet

1.01

Gateshead over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

5.6%

@ 19.33+0.6%

Under

94.4%

@ 1.01-0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

23.00

Superbet

23.00

Betano

12.00

Under

Betano

1.02

Bet365

1.01

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Harrogate, so a minus line means Harrogate give that many goals of a start and Gateshead receive them. At -1, Harrogate must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Harrogate win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Harrogate)Actual: Gateshead

Harrogate -2

12.9%

@ 4.56-6.3%

Draw -2

14.9%

@ 4.44-4.9%

Gateshead +2

72.2%

@ 1.44+11.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

5.00

Marathonbet

4.80

Superbet

4.70

Betfair

4.50

Unibet

3.80

Draw

Marathonbet

4.75

Bet365

4.75

Superbet

4.50

Betfair

4.50

Unibet

3.70

Away

Bet365

1.50

Superbet

1.46

Betfair

1.44

Marathonbet

1.40

Unibet

1.40

Handicap -1 (Harrogate)Actual: Draw

Harrogate -1

27.8%

@ 2.47-7.8%

Draw -1

20.4%

@ 3.57-4.2%

Gateshead +1

51.7%

@ 2.21+11.9%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Marathonbet

2.56

Superbet

2.55

10Bet

2.50

Bet365

2.50

Betfair

2.50

Draw

Bet365

4.00

Betfair

3.60

Superbet

3.60

Marathonbet

3.56

10Bet

3.55

Away

Betfair

2.30

10Bet

2.30

Bet365

2.25

Superbet

2.22

Marathonbet

2.12

Handicap +1 (Harrogate)Actual: Harrogate

Harrogate +1

72.4%

@ 1.15-4.0%

Draw +1

14.9%

@ 6.04+0.3%

Gateshead -1

12.7%

@ 9.80+3.7%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.18

Superbet

1.18

Betfair

1.13

Marathonbet

1.12

Draw

Betfair

7.00

Bet365

6.50

Superbet

6.10

Marathonbet

4.55

Away

Betfair

12.00

Bet365

11.00

Superbet

9.60

Marathonbet

6.60

Handicap +2 (Harrogate)Actual: Harrogate

Harrogate +2

87.3%

@ 1.04-3.0%

Draw +2

8.2%

@ 14.33+1.6%

Gateshead -2

4.6%

@ 29.00+1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.05

Betfair

1.03

Superbet

1.03

Draw

Bet365

15.00

Betfair

15.00

Superbet

13.00

Away

Betfair

36.00

Bet365

26.00

Superbet

25.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Harrogate

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.7

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	0.63	0.40	0.53	0.67	0.73
vs Stronger (7)	0.14	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.33	1.00
vs Similar (22)	0.68	0.41	0.55	0.36	0.82	0.45
vs Weaker (1)	0.00	3.00	-	-	0.00	3.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+27pp vs league)

This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gateshead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.8

Avg scored

0.3

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.47	0.80	0.44	0.75	0.50	0.86
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	1.50	0.00	1.00	0.00	2.00
vs Similar (23)	0.48	0.74	0.46	0.69	0.50	0.80
vs Weaker (5)	0.60	0.80	0.50	1.00	0.67	0.67
Clean sheet %	40% (+14pp vs league)

This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

78.0%

@ 1.29+6.0%

Under 0.5

22.0%

@ 3.31-6.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.33

William Hil

1.30

BetVictor

1.29

Superbet

1.29

1xBet

1.29

Under

Betfair

3.60

Bet365

3.50

BetVictor

3.40

10Bet

3.30

William Hil

3.25

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

42.5%

@ 2.32+2.7%

Under 1.5

57.5%

@ 1.53-2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.45

William Hil

2.45

1xBet

2.41

Superbet

2.37

Marathonbet

2.36

Under

Pinnacle

1.62

Betfair

1.57

Bet365

1.57

Unibet

1.56

10Bet

1.53

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

15.9%

@ 5.58-0.7%

Under 2.5

84.1%

@ 1.11+0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

6.00

BetVictor

6.00

1xBet

5.65

Betfair

5.50

Bet365

5.50

Under

Betano

1.14

Bet365

1.14

Superbet

1.12

Betfair

1.11

William Hil

1.11

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Harrogate over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

61.3%

@ 1.58+2.7%

Under

38.7%

@ 2.24-2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.65

1xBet

1.63

Superbet

1.60

Pinnacle

1.53

Unibet

1.49

Under

Pinnacle

2.44

Unibet

2.25

Superbet

2.20

Betano

2.15

1xBet

2.14

Harrogate over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

19.3%

@ 3.96-4.0%

Under

80.7%

@ 1.21+4.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.10

1xBet

4.00

Betano

3.90

Superbet

3.85

Under

Betano

1.23

Superbet

1.22

1xBet

1.19

Marathonbet

1.18

Harrogate over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

5.1%

@ 9.67-4.5%

Under

94.9%

@ 1.03+4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

10.00

1xBet

10.00

Betano

9.00

Under

Betano

1.04

Superbet

1.03

1xBet

1.01

Gateshead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

43.7%

@ 2.44+5.9%

Under

56.3%

@ 1.49-5.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.50

Superbet

2.50

Pinnacle

2.49

1xBet

2.47

Marathonbet

2.45

Under

Pinnacle

1.52

Betano

1.50

Unibet

1.49

1xBet

1.48

Superbet

1.47

Gateshead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

8.8%

@ 8.85-1.7%

Under

91.2%

@ 1.03+1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

9.60

1xBet

9.20

Superbet

8.80

Betano

7.80

Under

Betano

1.06

Superbet

1.04

1xBet

1.02

Marathonbet

1.01

Gateshead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.1%

@ 37.00-98.9%

Under

98.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

37.00

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Harrogate

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

1.2

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	0.87	0.60	1.20	0.47	0.53
vs Stronger (7)	0.14	0.86	0.00	0.75	0.33	1.00
vs Similar (22)	0.64	0.91	0.82	1.36	0.45	0.45
vs Weaker (1)	1.00	0.00	-	-	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	37% (+11pp vs league)

This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gateshead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	0.80	0.69	0.81	0.36	0.79
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (23)	0.57	0.91	0.69	0.92	0.40	0.90
vs Weaker (5)	0.60	0.20	1.00	0.00	0.33	0.33
Clean sheet %	37% (+11pp vs league)

This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

86.4%

@ 1.17+6.9%

Under 0.5

13.6%

@ 4.54-6.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.22

Betano

1.18

Superbet

1.18

Marathonbet

1.14

1xBet

1.14

Under

Bet365

5.50

Betano

4.65

Marathonbet

4.45

1xBet

4.35

Superbet

4.30

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

57.6%

@ 1.82+6.7%

Under 1.5

42.4%

@ 1.88-6.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.95

Superbet

1.88

1xBet

1.87

Marathonbet

1.84

Betano

1.82

Under

Bet365

2.00

Betano

1.95

10Bet

1.93

Unibet

1.93

Marathonbet

1.86

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

26.4%

@ 3.60+0.7%

Under 2.5

73.6%

@ 1.25-0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

4.00

Superbet

3.70

1xBet

3.58

Marathonbet

3.50

Betano

3.40

Under

Betano

1.30

Bet365

1.30

Superbet

1.24

Marathonbet

1.22

1xBet

1.21

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Harrogate over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

70.8%

@ 1.42+5.4%

Under

29.2%

@ 2.68-5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.44

Superbet

1.43

Betano

1.40

Under

Betano

2.80

Superbet

2.65

1xBet

2.60

Harrogate over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over

Over

33.5%

@ 2.93+2.0%

Under

66.5%

@ 1.35-2.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

3.00

Superbet

3.00

Marathonbet

2.91

Betano

2.80

Under

Betano

1.40

Superbet

1.34

Marathonbet

1.33

1xBet

1.32

Harrogate over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

12.8%

@ 7.17-0.1%

Under

87.2%

@ 1.06+0.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

8.00

Superbet

7.30

Betano

6.20

Under

Betano

1.10

Superbet

1.06

1xBet

1.03

Gateshead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

45.8%

@ 2.08+1.2%

Under

54.2%

@ 1.67-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

2.10

1xBet

2.10

Betano

2.05

Marathonbet

2.05

Under

Betano

1.72

1xBet

1.66

Marathonbet

1.65

Superbet

1.65

Gateshead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

12.8%

@ 6.47-1.5%

Under

87.2%

@ 1.08+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.80

Marathonbet

6.80

Superbet

6.60

Betano

5.70

Under

Betano

1.12

Superbet

1.08

1xBet

1.06

Marathonbet

1.06

Gateshead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

3.1%

@ 17.38-2.5%

Under

96.9%

@ 1.02+2.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

23.00

Betano

11.75

Under

Betano

1.02

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals	98.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 7.5	97.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	96.9%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+2.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	94.9%	1.03	Betano 1.04	Superbet 1.03	1xBet 1.01	-	-	+4.5%	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	94.7%	1.02	Betano 1.03	Bet365 1.02	1xBet 1.02	Betfair 1.01	Superbet 1.01	+0.8%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	94.4%	1.01	Betano 1.02	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-0.6%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	91.2%	1.03	Betano 1.06	Superbet 1.04	1xBet 1.02	Marathonbet 1.01	-	+1.7%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards	87.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 5.5	87.9%	1.04	Betano 1.08	Bet365 1.07	Superbet 1.05	Betfair 1.03	BetVictor 1.02	-1.5%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	87.3%	1.04	Bet365 1.05	Betfair 1.03	Superbet 1.03	-	-	-3.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	87.2%	1.08	Betano 1.12	Superbet 1.08	1xBet 1.06	Marathonbet 1.06	-	+1.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	87.2%	1.06	Betano 1.10	Superbet 1.06	1xBet 1.03	-	-	+0.1%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	87.2%	1.12	Betano 1.14	1xBet 1.12	Bet365 1.12	Betfair 1.11	Superbet 1.10	+3.9%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	86.4%	1.17	William Hil 1.22	Betano 1.18	Superbet 1.18	Marathonbet 1.14	1xBet 1.14	+6.9%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	85.5%	1.17	Superbet 1.20	Betano 1.20	BetVictor 1.20	10Bet 1.18	Bet365 1.17	+6.3%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	85.3%	1.11	Betano 1.13	Superbet 1.11	Bet365 1.11	BetVictor 1.11	Betfair 1.10	+1.4%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	84.1%	1.11	Betano 1.14	Bet365 1.14	Superbet 1.12	Betfair 1.11	William Hil 1.11	+0.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	82.9%	1.04	Betano 1.08	Bet365 1.07	Betfair 1.05	Superbet 1.05	1xBet 1.01	-5.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	80.7%	1.21	Betano 1.23	Superbet 1.22	1xBet 1.19	Marathonbet 1.18	-	+4.0%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals	78.0%	1.29	Betano 1.33	William Hil 1.30	BetVictor 1.29	Superbet 1.29	1xBet 1.29	+6.0%	✗ Miss
Home or Away	75.9%	1.19	William Hil 1.25	Betano 1.22	Bet365 1.22	Superbet 1.21	Betfair 1.20	-1.5%	✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals	75.8%	1.44	Superbet 1.48	Betano 1.47	BetVictor 1.47	Bet365 1.44	Marathonbet 1.44	+11.6%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards	75.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 4.5	75.6%	1.17	Pinnacle 1.24	10Bet 1.22	Betano 1.20	Bet365 1.20	Unibet 1.19	-3.4%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals	73.6%	1.25	Betano 1.30	Bet365 1.30	Superbet 1.24	Marathonbet 1.22	1xBet 1.21	-0.7%	✗ Miss
Home or Draw	72.4%	1.15	Betano 1.21	Bet365 1.18	BetVictor 1.18	William Hil 1.17	Superbet 1.16	-8.3%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	72.4%	1.15	Bet365 1.18	Superbet 1.18	Betfair 1.13	Marathonbet 1.12	-	-4.0%	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	72.2%	1.44	Bet365 1.50	Superbet 1.46	Betfair 1.44	Marathonbet 1.40	Unibet 1.40	+11.2%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals	70.8%	1.42	1xBet 1.44	Superbet 1.43	Betano 1.40	-	-	+5.4%	✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Harrogate · 2025/26

Anytime goalscorer

Matches in which the player scored

Aiden Marsh25%

Tobias Brenan19%

Stephen Duke-McKenna17%

Jack Muldoon17%

Tom Cursons15%

Ellis Taylor14%

Conor McAleny14%

Emmerson Sutton11%

Shawn McCoulsky8%

Bryn Morris7%

Chanse Headman6%

Cathal Heffernan5%

Jack Evans5%

Reece Smith4%

Warren Burrell4%

Jacob Slater3%

James Belshaw0%

Josh Falkingham0%

George Thomson0%

Kyle Jameson0%

Mason Bennett0%

Ben Fox0%

Liam Gibson0%

Mark Oxley0%

Emile Acquah0%

Levi Sutton0%

Anthony O'Connor0%

Lewis Cass0%

Tom Bradbury0%

Thomas Hill0%

Zico Asare0%

Bobby Faulkner0%

Henry Gray0%

To be booked (yellow)

Matches in which the player was booked

Thomas Hill44%

Chanse Headman38%

Josh Falkingham33%

Anthony O'Connor27%

Tobias Brenan25%

Jack Evans23%

Kyle Jameson20%

Ben Fox19%

Bryn Morris19%

Jack Muldoon13%

Levi Sutton13%

Shawn McCoulsky12%

Warren Burrell12%

Tom Bradbury11%

Henry Gray11%

Ellis Taylor10%

Mason Bennett9%

Tom Cursons8%

George Thomson7%

Stephen Duke-McKenna7%

Zico Asare7%

Jacob Slater6%

Liam Gibson6%

Emile Acquah5%

Cathal Heffernan5%

Conor McAleny5%

Bobby Faulkner5%

Lewis Cass4%

Reece Smith2%

James Belshaw0%

Mark Oxley0%

Aiden Marsh0%

Emmerson Sutton0%

Anytime assist

Matches in which the player assisted

Thomas Hill22%

Liam Gibson17%

Mark Oxley11%

Reece Smith11%

Jack Evans9%

Shawn McCoulsky8%

Levi Sutton7%

Ben Fox6%

Tobias Brenan6%

Bryn Morris5%

Warren Burrell4%

Anthony O'Connor4%

Lewis Cass4%

Stephen Duke-McKenna3%

Ellis Taylor3%

Jack Muldoon3%

Jacob Slater3%

James Belshaw0%

Josh Falkingham0%

George Thomson0%

Kyle Jameson0%

Mason Bennett0%

Emile Acquah0%

Conor McAleny0%

Tom Bradbury0%

Zico Asare0%

Aiden Marsh0%

Cathal Heffernan0%

Bobby Faulkner0%

Henry Gray0%

Emmerson Sutton0%

Tom Cursons0%

Chanse Headman0%

Over 2.5 shots

Matches with 3+ shots taken

Aiden Marsh25%

Shawn McCoulsky12%

Ellis Taylor10%

Emile Acquah10%

Bryn Morris9%

Conor McAleny9%

Stephen Duke-McKenna7%

Jack Muldoon7%

Tobias Brenan6%

Anthony O'Connor4%

Reece Smith2%

James Belshaw0%

Warren Burrell0%

Josh Falkingham0%

George Thomson0%

Kyle Jameson0%

Mason Bennett0%

Ben Fox0%

Liam Gibson0%

Mark Oxley0%

Levi Sutton0%

Lewis Cass0%

Tom Bradbury0%

Thomas Hill0%

Zico Asare0%

Jack Evans0%

Cathal Heffernan0%

Bobby Faulkner0%

Henry Gray0%

Jacob Slater0%

Emmerson Sutton0%

Tom Cursons0%

Chanse Headman0%

Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (11)

€2m

HAR (14)

€1m

FG (4)

€1m

BU (6)

€1m

EAS (5)

€1m

SOU (3)

€1m

HAR (6)

€1m

SOL (3)

€0m

ALT (5)

€0m

ALD (4)

€0m

WOK (3)

€0m

YEO (3)

€0m

SCU (2)

€0m

TAM (4)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

WEA (2)

€0m

HAL (2)

€0m

GAT (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

Harrogate's squad is €1m more valuable than Gateshead's (€1m vs €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (3)

€0m

FG (2)

€0m

ALD (3)

€0m

HAR (4)

€0m

ALT (3)

€0m

SOL (2)

€0m

EAS (1)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

SCU (1)

€0m

GAT (1)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

BU (1)

€0m

TAM (2)

€0m

HAL (1)

€0m

WOK (1)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

SOU (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

WEA (0)

€0m

Harrogate and Gateshead have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (5)

€1m

HAR (4)

€1m

SOU (2)

€0m

BU (2)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

TAM (2)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

EAS (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

SCU (0)

€0m

FG (0)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

GAT (0)

€0m

ALD (0)

€0m

SOL (0)

€0m

HAL (0)

€0m

WOK (0)

€0m

Harrogate and Gateshead have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (3)

€1m

HAR (6)

€0m

BU (3)

€0m

EAS (3)

€0m

FG (2)

€0m

WOK (2)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

SOL (1)

€0m

SOU (1)

€0m

SCU (1)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

HAL (1)

€0m

ALD (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

GAT (0)

€0m

TAM (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

Harrogate and Gateshead have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings

HAR wins

Draws

GAT wins

Head-to-head

Harrogate vs Gateshead · H/A from HAR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
No games.

Harrogate

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/08/26	A	Aldershot Vs HAR	3-1
22/08/26	H	HAR Vs Barrow	2-2
15/08/26	A	Wealdstone Vs HAR	1-3
08/08/26	H	HAR Vs Solihull	5-2
02/05/26	H	HAR Vs Barnet	1-2
25/04/26	A	Walsall Vs HAR	0-2
18/04/26	H	HAR Vs Colchester	1-0
11/04/26	A	Newport County Vs HAR	2-1
06/04/26	H	HAR Vs Bristol Rvs	2-3
03/04/26	A	Grimsby Vs HAR	1-3

Gateshead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/08/26	H	GAT Vs Sutton	0-1
22/08/26	A	Yeovil Vs GAT	3-0
15/08/26	H	GAT Vs Woking	2-0
08/08/26	A	Eastleigh Vs GAT	2-1
25/04/26	A	Altrincham Vs GAT	3-1
18/04/26	H	GAT Vs Woking	0-3
11/04/26	A	Aldershot Vs GAT	0-1
06/04/26	H	GAT Vs Scunthorpe	2-0
03/04/26	A	Carlisle Vs GAT	0-0
28/03/26	H	GAT Vs Yeovil	2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Harrogate

England: National League

Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWDL	0.84
Home	LWLWD	0.72
Away	WLWWL	0.96

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	22%	20%	24%
AVG goals	2.56	2.52	2.60
Over 1.5 %	74%	72%	76%
Over 2.5 %	44%	48%	40%
Over 3.5 %	26%	20%	32%
Scored	0.98	0.84	1.12
Conceded	1.58	1.68	1.48
BTTS	50%	40%	60%
Clean Sheet	16%	16%	16%
Corners	10.31	10.13	10.50
Cards	2.93	2.74	3.14

Gateshead

England: National League

Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWLL	1.12
Home	WWLWL	1.00
Away	DWLLL	1.24

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	32%	28%	36%
AVG goals	3.02	2.84	3.20
Over 1.5 %	84%	84%	84%
Over 2.5 %	62%	52%	72%
Over 3.5 %	30%	24%	36%
Scored	1.20	1.08	1.32
Conceded	1.82	1.76	1.88
BTTS	50%	44%	56%
Clean Sheet	18%	16%	20%
Corners	7.00	7.00	-
Cards	3.39	3.43	3.33

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Sutton	5	12	80%	2.4	7	3	+4	2.0	60%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	0.6	54%
2	Yeovil	5	11	60%	2.2	10	5	+5	3.0	100%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	47%
3	Boreham Wood	4	10	75%	2.5	11	5	+6	4.0	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	1.2	58%
4	Harrogate	5	10	60%	2.0	13	9	+4	4.4	100%	100%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	1	0	2.6	1.8	-
5	F Fylde	5	10	60%	2.0	11	7	+4	3.6	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	1.4	-
6	Southend	5	10	60%	2.0	9	6	+3	3.0	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.8	1.2	52%
7	Eastleigh	5	10	60%	2.0	7	5	+2	2.4	60%	40%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.4	1.0	41%
8	K Kidderminster	4	8	50%	2.0	6	3	+3	2.2	75%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.8	-
9	Aldershot	5	8	40%	1.6	6	4	+2	2.0	60%	20%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	0.8	54%
10	Boston Utd	4	6	50%	1.5	4	3	+1	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.0	0.8	-
11	Halifax	5	6	40%	1.2	9	9	+0	3.6	80%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	48%
12	Hartlepool	5	6	40%	1.2	4	4	+0	1.6	40%	20%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	47%
13	Altrincham	5	6	40%	1.2	5	7	-2	2.4	60%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.4	52%
14	Carlisle	3	5	33%	1.7	6	4	+2	3.3	100%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.3	49%
15	Wealdstone	4	5	25%	1.2	6	6	+0	3.0	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.5	57%
16	Scunthorpe	5	4	20%	0.8	8	10	-2	3.6	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	2.0	49%
17	Woking	4	4	25%	1.0	4	8	-4	3.0	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	50%
18	Gateshead	5	3	20%	0.6	4	8	-4	2.4	80%	60%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.6	50%
19	Forest Green	4	3	25%	0.8	4	9	-5	3.2	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	53%
20	Barrow	4	2	0%	0.5	4	7	-3	2.8	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	1	1	1.0	1.8	-
21	Tamworth	4	1	0%	0.2	7	12	-5	4.8	100%	100%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	3.0	38%
22	Solihull	5	0	0%	0.0	5	16	-11	4.2	100%	80%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	3.2	48%

England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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Harrogate vs Gateshead Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Harrogate

Gateshead

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Harrogate

Gateshead

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Harrogate

Gateshead

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

🎽 13. Player market rates

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Harrogate

Gateshead

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

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