This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.53
1.40
1.53
0.87
1.53
vs Stronger (26)
1.15
1.54
1.38
1.38
0.92
1.69
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.50
1.50
2.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.0%
@ 1.90-2.5%
Under 2.5
53.0%
@ 1.86+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.8%
Harrogate goals ↓
Sutton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.6%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.4%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.8%
4.8%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Harrogate goals (down), columns = Sutton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Harrogate is 0.46 points better than Sutton in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Harrogate is 0.02 goals better than Sutton in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Harrogate is 0.33 goals better than Sutton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Harrogate is 4.0 percentage points better than Sutton in terms of average possession (48% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Harrogate
For 4.6 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.4 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sutton
For 5.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Harrogate
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.4
11.5
3.1
2.9
3.4
19.7
19.4
20.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.9
10.0
11.5
3.0
3.3
2.8
19.1
19.7
18.8
vs Similar (36)
11.0
10.6
11.4
3.2
2.7
3.7
19.9
19.3
20.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
54%
62%
44%
42%
46%
40%
33%
46%
% under line
42%
46%
38%
56%
58%
54%
60%
67%
54%
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.4
3.6
3.2
4.1
22.0
22.5
21.5
vs Stronger (43)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.6
3.2
4.0
22.0
23.0
21.0
vs Similar (7)
9.6
11.5
7.0
3.4
2.8
4.3
21.7
19.5
24.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
54%
42%
48%
35%
62%
60%
65%
54%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
52%
65%
38%
40%
35%
46%
This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tranmere
11.6
Wrexham
11.4
Harrogate
11.0
Grimsby
10.9
Morecambe
10.9
Crewe
10.8
Notts County
10.7
Colchester
10.7
Walsall
10.6
Mansfield
10.5
Forest Green
10.4
Accrington
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Swindon
10.3
Crawley Town
10.2
Doncaster
10.2
Milton Keynes Dons
10.0
Newport County
9.9
Salford
9.7
Sutton
9.6
Stockport
9.5
AFC Wimbledon
9.5
Gillingham
9.5
Barrow
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Colchester
4.6
Salford
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
AFC Wimbledon
4.5
Morecambe
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Notts County
4.4
Milton Keynes Dons
4.4
Doncaster
4.4
Bradford
4.4
Barrow
4.1
Gillingham
4.1
Tranmere
4.0
Swindon
3.9
Forest Green
3.9
Mansfield
3.9
Accrington
3.9
Walsall
3.9
Wrexham
3.8
Sutton
3.6
Stockport
3.5
Grimsby
3.5
Newport County
3.4
Harrogate
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
24.8
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Grimsby
22.9
Stockport
22.9
Milton Keynes Dons
22.9
Salford
22.8
Barrow
22.6
Doncaster
22.6
Bradford
22.3
Crewe
22.2
Sutton
22.0
Newport County
21.7
Walsall
21.5
Colchester
21.4
Crawley Town
21.4
Swindon
21.3
Gillingham
21.0
Morecambe
20.9
Forest Green
20.7
Mansfield
20.7
Wrexham
20.2
Tranmere
19.9
Harrogate
19.7
Notts County
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
35.7%
Under 21.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Harrogate
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.50
1.00
1.25
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (22)
0.27
0.32
0.18
0.55
0.36
0.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.77
0.54
0.77
0.46
0.77
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Harrogate over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Harrogate
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.83
1.20
0.73
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.00
1.25
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.77
1.18
0.82
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.87
0.73
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (26)
0.65
0.77
0.85
0.62
0.46
0.92
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Harrogate over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Harrogate · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aiden Marsh25%
Tobias Brenan19%
Stephen Duke-McKenna17%
Jack Muldoon17%
Tom Cursons15%
Ellis Taylor14%
Conor McAleny14%
Emmerson Sutton11%
Shawn McCoulsky8%
Bryn Morris7%
Chanse Headman6%
Cathal Heffernan5%
Jack Evans5%
Reece Smith4%
Warren Burrell4%
Jacob Slater3%
James Belshaw0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Ben Fox0%
Liam Gibson0%
Mark Oxley0%
Emile Acquah0%
Levi Sutton0%
Anthony O'Connor0%
Lewis Cass0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Thomas Hill0%
Zico Asare0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Hill44%
Chanse Headman38%
Josh Falkingham33%
Anthony O'Connor27%
Tobias Brenan25%
Jack Evans23%
Kyle Jameson20%
Ben Fox19%
Bryn Morris19%
Jack Muldoon13%
Levi Sutton13%
Shawn McCoulsky12%
Warren Burrell12%
Tom Bradbury11%
Henry Gray11%
Ellis Taylor10%
Mason Bennett9%
Tom Cursons8%
George Thomson7%
Stephen Duke-McKenna7%
Zico Asare7%
Jacob Slater6%
Liam Gibson6%
Emile Acquah5%
Cathal Heffernan5%
Conor McAleny5%
Bobby Faulkner5%
Lewis Cass4%
Reece Smith2%
James Belshaw0%
Mark Oxley0%
Aiden Marsh0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thomas Hill22%
Liam Gibson17%
Mark Oxley11%
Reece Smith11%
Jack Evans9%
Shawn McCoulsky8%
Levi Sutton7%
Ben Fox6%
Tobias Brenan6%
Bryn Morris5%
Warren Burrell4%
Anthony O'Connor4%
Lewis Cass4%
Stephen Duke-McKenna3%
Ellis Taylor3%
Jack Muldoon3%
Jacob Slater3%
James Belshaw0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Emile Acquah0%
Conor McAleny0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Zico Asare0%
Aiden Marsh0%
Cathal Heffernan0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Tom Cursons0%
Chanse Headman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aiden Marsh25%
Shawn McCoulsky12%
Ellis Taylor10%
Emile Acquah10%
Bryn Morris9%
Conor McAleny9%
Stephen Duke-McKenna7%
Jack Muldoon7%
Tobias Brenan6%
Anthony O'Connor4%
Reece Smith2%
James Belshaw0%
Warren Burrell0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Ben Fox0%
Liam Gibson0%
Mark Oxley0%
Levi Sutton0%
Lewis Cass0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Thomas Hill0%
Zico Asare0%
Jack Evans0%
Cathal Heffernan0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
Jacob Slater0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Tom Cursons0%
Chanse Headman0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Harrogate's squad is €1m more valuable than Sutton's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Harrogate and Sutton have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Harrogate and Sutton have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Harrogate and Sutton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Gillingham
Notts County
Morecambe
Tranmere
Accrington
Newport County
Swindon
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Forest Green