The clash between Harrogate and Sutton is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 38% for Harrogate, 27% for a draw, and 35% for Sutton, so the most likely outcome is a 38% chance that Harrogate will come out on top. The average number of goals expected is 2.9, but the single most probable total is 2, which is 24% likely. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance of that exact result.
Harrogate, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Sutton, on the road, averages 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (97.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Under 5.5 (92.3%), Under 5.5 cards (84.0%), Home +2 handicap (83.0%), and Under 4.5 (82.6%). Sutton’s recent four-game winning streak contrasts with Harrogate’s return from a defeat, adding to the uncertainty of the final result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Harrogate win
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutton win
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Harrogate
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.40
1.13
1.53
1.13
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.30
1.42
1.67
1.27
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
0.93
1.60
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.14
1.45
0.93
1.60
1.36
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.0%
0-0
6.4%
2-0
6.3%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
Harrogate goals ↓
Sutton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.3%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
1
7.0%
13%
8.0%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
8.8%
6.1%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.2%
4.5%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Harrogate goals (down), columns = Sutton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Harrogate is 1.06 points better than Sutton in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.02).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Harrogate is 0.92 goals better than Sutton in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Harrogate is 0.75 goals better than Sutton in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Harrogate or Draw
66.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Harrogate + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Harrogate or Sutton
73.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Harrogate + Sutton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sutton
60.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Draw + Sutton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Harrogate over/under 0.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 1.5
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 2.5
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Harrogate, so a minus line means Harrogate give that many goals of a start and Sutton receive them. At -1, Harrogate must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Harrogate win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Harrogate)
Harrogate -2
8.0%
Draw -2
12.2%
Sutton +2
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Harrogate)
Harrogate -1
20.2%
Draw -1
19.6%
Sutton +1
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Harrogate)
Harrogate +1
66.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
Sutton -1
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Harrogate)
Harrogate +2
84.2%
Draw +2
10.0%
Sutton -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Harrogate
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.33
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.39
0.50
0.33
0.82
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.69
0.53
0.73
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Harrogate over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Harrogate
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.73
1.20
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.91
0.92
1.33
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.69
0.76
0.40
0.87
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Harrogate over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harrogate over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Harrogate · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aiden Marsh25%
Tobias Brenan19%
Stephen Duke-McKenna17%
Jack Muldoon17%
Tom Cursons15%
Ellis Taylor14%
Conor McAleny14%
Emmerson Sutton11%
Shawn McCoulsky8%
Bryn Morris7%
Chanse Headman6%
Cathal Heffernan5%
Jack Evans5%
Reece Smith4%
Warren Burrell4%
Jacob Slater3%
James Belshaw0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Ben Fox0%
Liam Gibson0%
Mark Oxley0%
Emile Acquah0%
Levi Sutton0%
Anthony O'Connor0%
Lewis Cass0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Thomas Hill0%
Zico Asare0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Hill44%
Chanse Headman38%
Josh Falkingham33%
Anthony O'Connor27%
Tobias Brenan25%
Jack Evans23%
Kyle Jameson20%
Ben Fox19%
Bryn Morris19%
Jack Muldoon13%
Levi Sutton13%
Shawn McCoulsky12%
Warren Burrell12%
Tom Bradbury11%
Henry Gray11%
Ellis Taylor10%
Mason Bennett9%
Tom Cursons8%
George Thomson7%
Stephen Duke-McKenna7%
Zico Asare7%
Jacob Slater6%
Liam Gibson6%
Emile Acquah5%
Cathal Heffernan5%
Conor McAleny5%
Bobby Faulkner5%
Lewis Cass4%
Reece Smith2%
James Belshaw0%
Mark Oxley0%
Aiden Marsh0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thomas Hill22%
Liam Gibson17%
Mark Oxley11%
Reece Smith11%
Jack Evans9%
Shawn McCoulsky8%
Levi Sutton7%
Ben Fox6%
Tobias Brenan6%
Bryn Morris5%
Warren Burrell4%
Anthony O'Connor4%
Lewis Cass4%
Stephen Duke-McKenna3%
Ellis Taylor3%
Jack Muldoon3%
Jacob Slater3%
James Belshaw0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Emile Acquah0%
Conor McAleny0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Zico Asare0%
Aiden Marsh0%
Cathal Heffernan0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Tom Cursons0%
Chanse Headman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aiden Marsh25%
Shawn McCoulsky12%
Ellis Taylor10%
Emile Acquah10%
Bryn Morris9%
Conor McAleny9%
Stephen Duke-McKenna7%
Jack Muldoon7%
Tobias Brenan6%
Anthony O'Connor4%
Reece Smith2%
James Belshaw0%
Warren Burrell0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Ben Fox0%
Liam Gibson0%
Mark Oxley0%
Levi Sutton0%
Lewis Cass0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Thomas Hill0%
Zico Asare0%
Jack Evans0%
Cathal Heffernan0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
Jacob Slater0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Tom Cursons0%
Chanse Headman0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Harrogate's squad is €1m more valuable than Sutton's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Harrogate and Sutton have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Harrogate and Sutton have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Harrogate and Sutton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
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Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Southend
Eastleigh
Aldershot
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull